@article{BellmannCaliendoTuebbicke2018,
  author    = {Bellmann, Lutz and Caliendo, Marco and T{\"u}bbicke, Stefan},
  title     = {The post-reform effectiveness of the new German start-up subsidy for the unemployed},
  series = {Labour-England},
  volume    = {32},
  journal   = {Labour-England},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {1121-7081},
  doi       = {10.1111/labr.12126},
  pages     = {293 -- 319},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {The current German start-up subsidy for unemployed individuals underwent a major reform in 2011 that altered key parameters of the program, leading to ambiguous ex ante predictions on the post-reform effectiveness of the program, making a new evaluation necessary. In our descriptive analysis, we find that participants after the reform differ significantly from pre-reform participants in terms of important characteristics and subsequent labor market performance. Our causal analysis reveals positive and sizable treatment effects on the treated regarding employment and income that are larger effects than what was estimated for the pre-reform program. Potential reasons for this are discussed.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CaliendoTuebbicke2019,
  author    = {Caliendo, Marco and T{\"u}bbicke, Stefan},
  title     = {New evidence on long-term effects of start-up subsidies},
  series = {Empirical economics},
  volume    = {59},
  journal   = {Empirical economics},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Physica-Verlag},
  address   = {Heidelberg},
  issn      = {0377-7332},
  doi       = {10.1007/s00181-019-01701-9},
  pages     = {1605 -- 1631},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {The German start-up subsidy (SUS) program for the unemployed has recently undergone a major makeover, altering its institutional setup, adding an additional layer of selection and leading to ambiguous predictions of the program's effectiveness. Using propensity score matching (PSM) as our main empirical approach, we provide estimates of long-term effects of the post-reform subsidy on individual employment prospects and labor market earnings up to 40 months after entering the program. Our results suggest large and persistent long-term effects of the subsidy on employment probabilities and net earned income. These effects are larger than what was estimated for the pre-reform program. Extensive sensitivity analyses within the standard PSM framework reveal that the results are robust to different choices regarding the implementation of the weighting procedure and also with respect to deviations from the conditional independence assumption. As a further assessment of the results' sensitivity, we go beyond the standard selection-on-observables approach and employ an instrumental variable setup using regional variation in the likelihood of receiving treatment. Here, we exploit the fact that the reform increased the discretionary power of local employment agencies in allocating active labor market policy funds, allowing us to obtain a measure of local preferences for SUS as the program of choice. The results based on this approach give rise to similar estimates. Thus, our results indicating that SUS are still an effective active labor market program after the reform do not appear to be driven by "hidden bias."},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Tuebbicke2020,
  author    = {T{\"u}bbicke, Stefan},
  title     = {Essays on start-up subsidies for the unemployed and methods for causal inference},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-47793},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {191},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {This thesis offers new insights on the effects of Start-Up Subsidies (SUS) for unemployed individuals as a special kind of active labor market program (ALMP) that aims to re-integrate individuals into the labor market via the route of self-employment. Moreover, this thesis contributes to the literature on methods for causal inference when the treatment variable is continuous rather than binary. For example, this is the case when individuals differ in their degree of exposure to a common treatment. The analysis of the effects of SUS focuses on the main current German program called "Gr{\"u}ndungszuschuss" (New Start-Up Subsidy, NSUS) after its reform in 2011. Average Effects on participants' labor market outcomes - as measured by employment and earnings - as well as subjective well-being are estimated mainly based on propensity score matching (PSM) techniques. PSM aims to achieve balance in terms of observed characteristics by matching participants with at least one comparable non-participant in terms of their probability to receive the treatment. This estimation strategy is valid as long as all relevant characteristics that explain selection patterns into treatment are observed and included in the estimation of the propensity score. To make our analysis as credible as possible, we control for a large vector of characteristics as observed through the combination of rich administrative data from the Federal Employment Agency as well as through survey data. Chapters two to four of this thesis puts special emphasis on aspects regarding (the evaluation of) SUS programs that have received no or only limited attention thus far. The first aspect relates to the interplay of institutional details of the program and its effectiveness. So far, relatively little is known about the importance of SUS program features such as the duration of support. Second, there is no experimental benchmark evaluation of SUS available and thus, the reliability of non-experimental estimation techniques such as PSM is of crucial importance as estimates are biased when relevant confounders are omitted from the analysis. Third, there may be potentially detrimental effects of transitioning into (relatively risky) self-employment on subjective well-being among subsidized founders out of unemployment. These were to remain undetected if the analysis would focus exclusively on labor market outcomes of participants. The results indicate positive long-term effects of SUS participation on employment and earnings among participants. These effects are substantially larger than what estimated before the reform, indicating room for improvement in program design via changes in institutional details. Moreover, non-experimental estimates of treatment effects are remarkably robust to hidden confounding. Regarding subjective well-being, this thesis finds a positive long-run impact on job satisfaction and a detrimental effect on satisfaction with social security. The latter appears to be driven by adverse effects on social insurance contributions. In chapter five, a novel automated covariate balancing technique for the estimation of causal effects in the context of continuous treatments is derived and assessed regarding its performance compared to other (automated) balancing techniques. Although binary research designs that only differentiate between participants and non-participants of some treatment remain the most-common case in empirical practice, many applications can be adapted to include continuous treatments as well. Often, this will allow for more meaningful estimates of causal effects in order to further improve the design of programs. In the context of SUS, one may further investigate the effects of the size of monetary support or its duration on participants' labor market outcomes. Both Monte-Carlo investigations and analysis of two well-known datasets suggests superior performance of the proposed Entropy Balancing for continuous treatments (EBCT) compared to other existing estimation strategies.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CaliendoTuebbicke2020,
  author    = {Caliendo, Marco and T{\"u}bbicke, Stefan},
  title     = {Do start-up subsidies for the unemployed affect participants' well-being?},
  series = {Evaluation review},
  volume    = {46},
  journal   = {Evaluation review},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {Sage Publications},
  address   = {Thousand Oaks},
  issn      = {1552-3926},
  doi       = {10.1177/0193841X20927237},
  pages     = {517 -- 554},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Background: The literature on start-up subsidies (SUS) for the unemployed finds positive effects on objective outcome measures such as employment or income. However, little is known about effects on subjective well-being of participants. Knowledge about this is especially important because subsidizing the transition into self-employment may have unintended adverse effects on participants' well-being due to its risky nature and lower social security protection, especially in the long run. Objective: We study the long-term effects of SUS on subjective outcome indicators of well-being, as measured by the participants' satisfaction in different domains. This extends previous analyses of the current German SUS program ("Gr{\"u}ndungszuschuss") that focused on objective outcomes—such as employment and income—and allows us to make a more complete judgment about the overall effects of SUS at the individual level. Research design: Having access to linked administrative-survey data providing us with rich information on pretreatment characteristics, we base our analysis on the conditional independence assumption and use propensity score matching to estimate causal effects within the potential outcomes framework. We perform several sensitivity analyses to inspect the robustness of our findings. Results: We find long-term positive effects on job satisfaction but negative effects on individuals' satisfaction with their social security situation. Supplementary findings suggest that the negative effect on satisfaction with social security may be driven by negative effects on unemployment and retirement insurance coverage. Our heterogeneity analysis reveals substantial variation in effects across gender, age groups, and skill levels. Estimates are highly robust.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CaliendoTuebbicke2021,
  author    = {Caliendo, Marco and T{\"u}bbicke, Stefan},
  title     = {Design and effectiveness of start-up subsidies},
  series = {Economic analysis and policy},
  volume    = {70},
  journal   = {Economic analysis and policy},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0313-5926},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.eap.2021.02.015},
  pages     = {333 -- 340},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {While a growing body of literature finds positive impacts of Start-Up Subsidies (SUS) on labor market outcomes of participants, little is known about how the design of these programs shapes their effectiveness and hence how to improve policy. As experimental variation in program design is unavailable, we exploit the 2011 reform of the current German SUS program for the unemployed which strengthened caseworkers' discretionary power, increased entry requirements and reduced monetary support. We estimate the impact of the reform on the program's effectiveness using samples of participants and non-participants from before and after the reform. To control for time-constant unobserved heterogeneity as well as differential selection patterns based on observable characteristics over time, we combine Difference-in-Differences with inverse probability weighting using covariate balancing propensity scores. Holding participants' observed characteristics as well as macroeconomic conditions constant, the results suggest that the reform was successful in raising employment effects on average. As these findings may be contaminated by changes in selection patterns based on unobserved characteristics, we assess our results using simulation-based sensitivity analyses and find that our estimates are highly robust to changes in unobserved characteristics. Hence, the reform most likely had a positive impact on the effectiveness of the program, suggesting that increasing entry requirements and reducing support increased the program's impacts while reducing the cost per participant. (C) 2021 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CaliendoTuebbicke2021,
  author    = {Caliendo, Marco and T{\"u}bbicke, Stefan},
  title     = {Der Gr{\"u}ndungszuschuss f{\"u}r Arbeitslose nach der Reform 2011},
  series = {IAB-Kurzbericht : aktuelle Analysen aus dem Institut f{\"u}r Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung},
  volume    = {28},
  journal   = {IAB-Kurzbericht : aktuelle Analysen aus dem Institut f{\"u}r Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung},
  publisher = {IAB},
  address   = {N{\"u}rnberg},
  issn      = {0942-167X},
  pages     = {8},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Mit der Reform des Gr{\"u}ndungszuschusses im Jahr 2011 wurden die Rahmenbedingungen der Gr{\"u}ndungsf{\"o}rderung f{\"u}r Arbeitslose im Sozialgesetzbuch III umfassend reformiert und die F{\"o}rderzahlen reduzierten sich drastisch. Insgesamt ist das Arbeitsmarktinstrument weiterhin ein Erfolg: Die meisten Gef{\"o}rderten sind auch knapp 3,5 Jahre nach der Gr{\"u}ndung noch selbstst{\"a}ndig und etwa ein Drittel von ihnen hat mindestens einen Besch{\"a}ftigen. Von denjenigen, die ihre Selbstst{\"a}ndigkeit inzwischen beendet haben, sind die meisten sozialversicherungspflichtig besch{\"a}ftigt. Damit haben Gef{\"o}rderte eine deutlich h{\"o}here Besch{\"a}ftigungsquote als vergleichbare Personen ohne diese F{\"o}rderung. Auch ihre monatlichen Nettoverdienste sowie ihre Jobzufriedenheit sind h{\"o}her. Verbesserungspotenzial gibt es allerdings bei der sozialen Absicherung: Gef{\"o}rderte zahlen seltener in eine Rentenversicherung oder in die Arbeitslosenversicherung ein und sind mit ihrer sozialen Absicherung unzufriedener als vergleichbare Personen.},
  language  = {de}
}
@techreport{SchroederGoeblerGrabkaetal.2020,
  author    = {Schr{\"o}der, Carsten and G{\"o}bler, Konstantin and Grabka, Markus M. and Kolb, Chris and Shupe, Cortnie and Caliendo, Marco and T{\"u}bbicke, Stefan and Priem, Maximilian},
  title     = {Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Haushaltseinkommen, Konsum- und Sparverhalten},
  publisher = {Deutsche Institut f{\"u}r Wirtschaftsforschung},
  address   = {Berlin},
  pages     = {1 -- 85},
  year      = {2020},
  language  = {de}
}