@article{GrimmRevillaBergeretal.2005,
  author    = {Grimm, Volker and Revilla, Eloy and Berger, Uta and Jeltsch, Florian and Mooij, Wolf M. and Railsback, Steven Floyd and Thulke, Hans-Hermann and Weiner, Jacob and Wiegand, Thorsten and DeAngelis, Donald L.},
  title     = {Pattern-oriented modeling of agend-based complex systems : lessons from ecology},
  year      = {2005},
  abstract  = {Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{JeltschHansenTackmannetal.2004,
  author    = {Jeltsch, Florian and Hansen, Frank and Tackmann, K. and Staubach, C. and Thulke, Hans-Hermann},
  title     = {Processes leading to a spatial aggregation of Echinococcus multilocularis in its natural intermediate host Microtus arvalis},
  year      = {2004},
  abstract  = {The small fox tapeworm (Echinococcus multilocularis) shows a heterogeneous spatial distribution in the intermediate host (Microtus arvalis). To identify the ecological processes responsible for this heterogeneity, we developed a spatially explicit simulation model. The model combines individual-based (foxes, Vulpes vulpes) and grid- based (voles) techniques to simulate the infections in both intermediate and definite host. If host populations are homogeneously mixed, the model reproduces field data for parasite prevalence only for a limited number of parameter combinations. As ecological parameters inevitably vary to a certain degree, we discarded the homogeneous mixing model as insufficient to gain insight into the ecology of the fox tapeworm cycle. We analysed five different model scenarios, each focussing on an ecological process that might be responsible for the heterogeneous spatial distribution of E multilocularis in the intermediate host. Field studies revealed that the prevalence ratio between intermediate and definite host remains stable over a wide range of ecological conditions. Thus, by varying the parameters in simulation experiments, we used the robustness of the agreement between field data and model output as quality criterion for the five scenarios. Only one of the five scenarios was found to reproduce the prevalence ratio over a sufficient range of parameter combinations. In the accentuated scenario most tapeworm eggs die due to bad environmental conditions before they cause infections in the intermediate host. This scenario is supported by the known sensitivity of tapeworm eggs to high temperatures and dry conditions. The identified process is likely to lead to a heterogeneous availability of infective eggs and thus to a clumped distribution of infected intermediate hosts. In conclusion, areas with humid conditions and low temperatures must be pointed out as high risk areas for human exposure to E. multilocularis eggs as well. (C) 2004 on behalf of Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{JeltschHansenTackmannetal.2003,
  author    = {Jeltsch, Florian and Hansen, Frank and Tackmann, K. and Thulke, Hans-Hermann},
  title     = {K{\"o}derauslageintervalle und Dauer der Bek{\"a}mpfung des Kleinen Fuchsbandwurms : eine Modellierstudie},
  year      = {2003},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{JeltschHansenTackmannetal.2003,
  author    = {Jeltsch, Florian and Hansen, Frank and Tackmann, K. and Wissel, Christian and Thulke, Hans-Hermann},
  title     = {Controlling Echinococcus multilocularis - ecological implications of field trials},
  year      = {2003},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{JeltschHansenThulke2003,
  author    = {Jeltsch, Florian and Hansen, Frank and Thulke, Hans-Hermann},
  title     = {Simulationsmodelle zur Planung von Strategien in der Bek{\"a}mpfung von Wildtiererkrankungen},
  year      = {2003},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{SchererRadchukStaubachetal.2019,
  author    = {Scherer, Cedric and Radchuk, Viktoriia and Staubach, Christoph and Mueller, Sophie and Blaum, Niels and Thulke, Hans-Hermann and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie},
  title     = {Seasonal host life-history processes fuel disease dynamics at different spatial scales},
  series = {Journal of animal ecology : a journal of the British Ecological Society},
  volume    = {88},
  journal   = {Journal of animal ecology : a journal of the British Ecological Society},
  number    = {11},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0021-8790},
  doi       = {10.1111/1365-2656.13070},
  pages     = {1812 -- 1824},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Understanding the drivers underlying disease dynamics is still a major challenge in disease ecology, especially in the case of long-term disease persistence. Even though there is a strong consensus that density-dependent factors play an important role for the spread of diseases, the main drivers are still discussed and, more importantly, might differ between invasion and persistence periods. Here, we analysed long-term outbreak data of classical swine fever, an important disease in both wild boar and livestock, prevalent in the wild boar population from 1993 to 2000 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany. We report outbreak characteristics and results from generalized linear mixed models to reveal what factors affected infection risk on both the landscape and the individual level. Spatiotemporal outbreak dynamics showed an initial wave-like spread with high incidence during the invasion period followed by a drop of incidence and an increase in seroprevalence during the persistence period. Velocity of spread increased with time during the first year of outbreak and decreased linearly afterwards, being on average 7.6 km per quarter. Landscape- and individual-level analyses of infection risk indicate contrasting seasonal patterns. During the persistence period, infection risk on the landscape level was highest during autumn and winter seasons, probably related to spatial behaviour such as increased long-distance movements and contacts induced by rutting and escaping movements. In contrast, individual-level infection risk peaked in spring, probably related to the concurrent birth season leading to higher densities, and was significantly higher in piglets than in reproductive animals. Our findings highlight that it is important to investigate both individual- and landscape-level patterns of infection risk to understand long-term persistence of wildlife diseases and to guide respective management actions. Furthermore, we highlight that exploring different temporal aggregation of the data helps to reveal important seasonal patterns, which might be masked otherwise.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ThulkeTischendorfStaubachetal.2000,
  author    = {Thulke, Hans-Hermann and Tischendorf, L. and Staubach, C. and Selhorst, T. and Jeltsch, Florian and M{\"u}ller, T. and Schl{\"u}ter, H. and Wissel, Christian},
  title     = {The spatio-temporal dynamics of a post-vaccination recovery of rabies in foxes and emergency vaccination planning},
  year      = {2000},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WiegandWardThulkeetal.2000,
  author    = {Wiegand, K. and Ward, D. and Thulke, Hans-Hermann and Jeltsch, Florian},
  title     = {From snap-shot information to long-term population dynamics of Acacias by a simulation model},
  year      = {2000},
  language  = {en}
}