@misc{NueskenReichRozdeba2019,
  author    = {N{\"u}sken, Nikolas and Reich, Sebastian and Rozdeba, Paul J.},
  title     = {State and parameter estimation from observed signal increments},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {916},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-44260},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-442609},
  pages     = {25},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {The success of the ensemble Kalman filter has triggered a strong interest in expanding its scope beyond classical state estimation problems. In this paper, we focus on continuous-time data assimilation where the model and measurement errors are correlated and both states and parameters need to be identified. Such scenarios arise from noisy and partial observations of Lagrangian particles which move under a stochastic velocity field involving unknown parameters. We take an appropriate class of McKean-Vlasov equations as the starting point to derive ensemble Kalman-Bucy filter algorithms for combined state and parameter estimation. We demonstrate their performance through a series of increasingly complex multi-scale model systems.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{TyFangGonzalezetal.2019,
  author    = {Ty, Alexander J. A. and Fang, Zheng and Gonzalez, Rivver A. and Rozdeba, Paul J. and Abarbanel, Henry D.},
  title     = {Machine learning of time series using time-delay embedding and precision annealing},
  series = {Neural Computation},
  volume    = {31},
  journal   = {Neural Computation},
  number    = {10},
  publisher = {MIT Press},
  address   = {Cambridge},
  issn      = {0899-7667},
  doi       = {10.1162/neco_a_01224},
  pages     = {2004 -- 2024},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Tasking machine learning to predict segments of a time series requires estimating the parameters of a ML model with input/output pairs from the time series. We borrow two techniques used in statistical data assimilation in order to accomplish this task: time-delay embedding to prepare our input data and precision annealing as a training method. The precision annealing approach identifies the global minimum of the action (-log[P]). In this way, we are able to identify the number of training pairs required to produce good generalizations (predictions) for the time series. We proceed from a scalar time series s(tn);tn=t0+n Delta t and, using methods of nonlinear time series analysis, show how to produce a DE>1-dimensional time-delay embedding space in which the time series has no false neighbors as does the observed s(tn) time series. In that DE-dimensional space, we explore the use of feedforward multilayer perceptrons as network models operating on DE-dimensional input and producing DE-dimensional outputs.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{NueskenReichRozdeba2019,
  author    = {N{\"u}sken, Nikolas and Reich, Sebastian and Rozdeba, Paul J.},
  title     = {State and parameter estimation from observed signal increments},
  series = {Entropy : an international and interdisciplinary journal of entropy and information studies},
  volume    = {21},
  journal   = {Entropy : an international and interdisciplinary journal of entropy and information studies},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {1099-4300},
  doi       = {10.3390/e21050505},
  pages     = {23},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {The success of the ensemble Kalman filter has triggered a strong interest in expanding its scope beyond classical state estimation problems. In this paper, we focus on continuous-time data assimilation where the model and measurement errors are correlated and both states and parameters need to be identified. Such scenarios arise from noisy and partial observations of Lagrangian particles which move under a stochastic velocity field involving unknown parameters. We take an appropriate class of McKean-Vlasov equations as the starting point to derive ensemble Kalman-Bucy filter algorithms for combined state and parameter estimation. We demonstrate their performance through a series of increasingly complex multi-scale model systems.},
  language  = {en}
}