@article{TekkenKropp2012, author = {Tekken, Vera and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Climate-Driven or Human-Induced indicating severe water scarcity in the Moulouya River Basin (Morocco)}, series = {Water}, volume = {4}, journal = {Water}, number = {4}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2073-4441}, doi = {10.3390/w4040959}, pages = {959 -- 982}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Many agriculture-based economies are increasingly under stress from climate change and socio-economic pressures. The excessive exploitation of natural resources still represents the standard procedure to achieve socio-economic development. In the area of the Moulouya river basin, Morocco, natural water availability represents a key resource for all economic activities. Agriculture represents the most important sector, and frequently occurring water deficits are aggravated by climate change. On the basis of historical trends taken from CRU TS 2.1, this paper analyses the impact of climate change on the per capita water availability under inclusion of population trends. The Climatic Water Balance (CWB) shows a significant decrease for the winter period, causing adverse effects for the main agricultural season. Further, moisture losses due to increasing evapotranspiration rates indicate problems for the annual water budget and groundwater recharge. The per capita blue water availability falls below a minimum threshold of 500 m(3) per year, denoting a high regional vulnerability to increasing water scarcity assuming a no-response scenario. Regional development focusing on the water-intense sectors of agriculture and tourism appears to be at risk. Institutional capacities and policies need to address the problem, and the prompt implementation of innovative water production and efficiency measures is recommended.}, language = {en} } @article{PrahlRybskiKroppetal.2012, author = {Prahl, Boris F. and Rybski, Diego and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen and Burghoff, Olaf and Held, Hermann}, title = {Applying stochastic small-scale damage functions to German winter storms}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {39}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, number = {12}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1029/2012GL050961}, pages = {6}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Analyzing insurance-loss data we derive stochastic storm-damage functions for residential buildings. On district level we fit power-law relations between daily loss and maximum wind speed, typically spanning more than 4 orders of magnitude. The estimated exponents for 439 German districts roughly range from 8 to 12. In addition, we find correlations among the parameters and socio-demographic data, which we employ in a simplified parametrization of the damage function with just 3 independent parameters for each district. A Monte Carlo method is used to generate loss estimates and confidence bounds of daily and annual storm damages in Germany. Our approach reproduces the annual progression of winter storm losses and enables to estimate daily losses over a wide range of magnitudes. Citation: Prahl, B. F., D. Rybski, J. P. Kropp, O. Burghoff, and H. Held (2012), Applying stochastic small-scale damage functions to German winter storms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06806, doi: 10.1029/2012GL050961.}, language = {en} } @article{TekkenCostaKropp2013, author = {Tekken, Vera and Costa, Lu{\´i}s F{\´i}l{\´i}pe Carvalho da and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Increasing pressure, declining water and climate change in north-eastern Morocco}, series = {Journal of coastal conservation : planning and management}, volume = {17}, journal = {Journal of coastal conservation : planning and management}, number = {3}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {1400-0350}, doi = {10.1007/s11852-013-0234-7}, pages = {379 -- 388}, year = {2013}, abstract = {The coastal stretch of north-eastern Mediterranean Morocco holds vitally important ecological, social, and economic functions. The implementation of large-scale luxury tourism resorts shall push socio-economic development and facilitate the shift from a mainly agrarian to a service economy. Sufficient water availability and intact beaches are among the key requirements for the successful realization of regional development plans. The water situation is already critical, additional water-intense sectors could overstrain the capacity of water resources. Further, coastal erosion caused by sea-level rise is projected. Regional climate change is observable, and must be included in regional water management. Long-term climate trends are assessed for the larger region (Moulouya basin) and for the near-coastal zone at Saidia. The amount of additional water demand is assessed for the large-dimensioned Saidia resort; including the monthly, seasonal and annual tourist per capita water need under inclusion of irrigated golf courses and garden areas. A shift of climate patterns is observed, a lengthening of the dry summer season, and as well a significant decline of annual precipitation. Thus, current water scarcity is mainly human-induced; however, climate change will aggravate the situation. As a consequence, severe environmental damage due to water scarcity is likely and could impinge on the quality of local tourism. The re-adjustment of current management routines is therefore essential. Possible adjustments are discussed and the analysis concludes with management recommendations for innovative regional water management of tourism facilities.}, language = {en} } @article{PradhanLuedekeRoesseretal.2013, author = {Pradhan, Prajal and L{\"u}deke, Matthias K. B. and R{\"o}sser, Dominik E. and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Embodied crop calories in animal products}, series = {Environmental research letters}, volume = {8}, journal = {Environmental research letters}, number = {4}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044044}, pages = {10}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Increases in animal products consumption and the associated environmental consequences have been a matter of scientific debate for decades. Consequences of such increases include rises in greenhouse gas emissions, growth of consumptive water use, and perturbation of global nutrients cycles. These consequences vary spatially depending on livestock types, their densities and their production system. In this letter, we investigate the spatial distribution of embodied crop calories in animal products. On a global scale, about 40\% of the global crop calories are used as livestock feed (we refer to this ratio as crop balance for livestock) and about 4 kcal of crop products are used to generate 1 kcal of animal products (embodied crop calories of around 4). However, these values vary greatly around the world. In some regions, more than 100\% of the crops produced is required to feed livestock requiring national or international trade to meet the deficit in livestock feed. Embodied crop calories vary between less than 1 for 20\% of the livestock raising areas worldwide and greater than 10 for another 20\% of the regions. Low values of embodied crop calories are related to production systems for ruminants based on fodder and forage, while large values are usually associated with production systems for non-ruminants fed on crop products. Additionally, we project the future feed demand considering three scenarios: (a) population growth, (b) population growth and changes in human dietary patterns and (c) changes in population, dietary patterns and feed conversion efficiency. When considering dietary changes, we project the global feed demand to be almost doubled (1.8-2.3 times) by 2050 compared to 2000, which would force us to produce almost equal or even more crops to raise our livestock than to directly nourish ourselves in the future. Feed demand is expected to increase over proportionally in Africa, South-Eastern Asia and Southern Asia, putting additional stress on these regions.}, language = {en} } @article{KleinOlonscheckWaltheretal.2013, author = {Klein, Daniel R. and Olonscheck, Mady and Walther, Carsten and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Susceptibility of the European electricity sector to climate change}, series = {Energy}, volume = {59}, journal = {Energy}, number = {6}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0360-5442}, doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2013.06.048}, pages = {183 -- 193}, year = {2013}, abstract = {The electricity system is particularly susceptible to climate change due to the close interconnectedness between electricity production, consumption and climate. This study provides a country based relative analysis of 21 European countries' electricity system susceptibility to climate change. Taking into account 14 quantitative influencing factors, the susceptibility of each country is examined both for the current and projected system with the result being a relative ranked index. Luxembourg and Greece are the most susceptible relatively due in part to their inability to meet their own electricity consumption demand with inland production, and the fact that the majority of their production is from more susceptible sources, primarily combustible fuels. Greece experiences relatively warm mean temperatures, which are expected to increase in the future leading to greater summer electricity consumption, increasing susceptibility. Norway was found to be the least susceptible, relatively, due to its consistent production surplus, which is primarily from hydro (a less susceptible source) and a likely decrease of winter electricity consumption as temperatures rise due to climate change. The findings of this study enable countries to identify the main factors that increase their electricity system susceptibility and proceed with adaptation measures that are the most effective in decreasing susceptibility.}, language = {en} } @article{ZhouRybskiKropp2013, author = {Zhou, Bin and Rybski, Diego and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {On the statistics of urban heat island intensity}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {40}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, number = {20}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1002/2013GL057320}, pages = {5486 -- 5491}, year = {2013}, abstract = {We perform a systematic study of all cities in Europe to assess the Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity by means of remotely sensed land surface temperature data. Defining cities as spatial clusters of urban land cover, we investigate the relationships of the UHI intensity, with the cluster size and the temperature of the surroundings. Our results show that in Europe, the UHI intensity in summer has a strong correlation with the cluster size, which can be well fitted by an empirical sigmoid model. Furthermore, we find a novel seasonality of the UHI intensity for individual clusters in the form of hysteresis-like curves. We characterize the shape and identify apparent regional patterns.}, language = {en} } @article{PradhanReusserKropp2013, author = {Pradhan, Prajal and Reusser, Dominik Edwin and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Embodied greenhouse gas emissions in Diets}, series = {PLoS one}, volume = {8}, journal = {PLoS one}, number = {5}, publisher = {PLoS}, address = {San Fransisco}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0062228}, pages = {8}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Changing food consumption patterns and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been a matter of scientific debate for decades. The agricultural sector is one of the major GHG emitters and thus holds a large potential for climate change mitigation through optimal management and dietary changes. We assess this potential, project emissions, and investigate dietary patterns and their changes globally on a per country basis between 1961 and 2007. Sixteen representative and spatially differentiated patterns with a per capita calorie intake ranging from 1,870 to >3,400 kcal/day were derived. Detailed analyses show that low calorie diets are decreasing worldwide, while in parallel diet composition is changing as well: a discernable shift towards more balanced diets in developing countries can be observed and steps towards more meat rich diets as a typical characteristics in developed countries. Low calorie diets which are mainly observable in developing countries show a similar emission burden than moderate and high calorie diets. This can be explained by a less efficient calorie production per unit of GHG emissions in developing countries. Very high calorie diets are common in the developed world and exhibit high total per capita emissions of 3.7-6.1 kg CO2eq./day due to high carbon intensity and high intake of animal products. In case of an unbridled demographic growth and changing dietary patterns the projected emissions from agriculture will approach 20 Gt CO2eq./yr by 2050.}, language = {en} } @article{BoettleRybskiKropp2013, author = {B{\"o}ttle, Markus and Rybski, Diego and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {How changing sea level extremes and protection measures alter coastal flood damages}, series = {Water resources research}, volume = {49}, journal = {Water resources research}, number = {3}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0043-1397}, doi = {10.1002/wrcr.20108}, pages = {1199 -- 1210}, year = {2013}, abstract = {While sea level rise is one of the most likely consequences of climate change, the provoked costs remain highly uncertain. Based on a block-maxima approach, we provide a stochastic framework to estimate the increase of expected damages with sea level rise as well as with meteorological changes and demonstrate the application to two case studies. In addition, the uncertainty of the damage estimations due to the stochastic nature of extreme events is studied. Starting with the probability distribution of extreme flood levels, we calculate the distribution of implied damages in a specific region employing stage-damage functions. Universal relations of the expected damages and their standard deviation, which demonstrate the importance of the shape of the damage function, are provided. We also calculate how flood protection reduces the damages leading to a more complex picture, where the extreme value behavior plays a fundamental role. Citation: Boettle, M., D. Rybski, and J. P. Kropp (2013), How changing sea level extremes and protection measures alter coastal flood damages, Water Resour. Res., 49, 1199-1210, doi: 10.1002/wrcr.20108.}, language = {en} } @article{RybskiRosKropp2013, author = {Rybski, Diego and Ros, Anselmo Garcia Cantu and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Distance-weighted city growth}, series = {PHYSICAL REVIEW E}, volume = {87}, journal = {PHYSICAL REVIEW E}, number = {4}, publisher = {AMER PHYSICAL SOC}, address = {COLLEGE PK}, issn = {1539-3755}, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevE.87.042114}, pages = {6}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Urban agglomerations exhibit complex emergent features of which Zipf\’s law, i.e., a power-law size distribution, and fractality may be regarded as the most prominent ones. We propose a simplistic model for the generation of citylike structures which is solely based on the assumption that growth is more likely to take place close to inhabited space. The model involves one parameter which is an exponent determining how strongly the attraction decays with the distance. In addition, the model is run iteratively so that existing clusters can grow (together) and new ones can emerge. The model is capable of reproducing the size distribution and the fractality of the boundary of the largest cluster. Although the power-law distribution depends on both, the imposed exponent and the iteration, the fractality seems to be independent of the former and only depends on the latter. Analyzing land-cover data, we estimate the parameter-value gamma approximate to 2.5 for Paris and its surroundings. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.87.042114}, language = {en} } @article{PradhanLuedekeReusseretal.2014, author = {Pradhan, Prajal and L{\"u}deke, Matthias K. B. and Reusser, Dominik Edwin and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Food self-sufficiency across scales: How local can we go?}, series = {Environmental science \& technology}, volume = {48}, journal = {Environmental science \& technology}, number = {16}, publisher = {American Chemical Society}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0013-936X}, doi = {10.1021/es5005939}, pages = {9463 -- 9470}, year = {2014}, abstract = {This study explores the potential for regions to shift to a local food supply using food self-sufficiency (FSS) as an indicator. We considered a region food self-sufficient when its total calorie production is enough to meet its demand. For future scenarios, we considered population growth, dietary changes, improved feed conversion efficiency, climate change, and crop yield increments. Starting at the 5' resolution, we investigated FSS from the lowest administrative levels to continents. Globally, about 1.9 billion people are self-sufficient within their 5' grid, while about 1 billion people from Asia and Africa require cross-continental agricultural trade in 2000. By closing yield gaps, these regions can achieve FSS, which also reduces international trade and increases a self-sufficient population in a 5' grid to 2.9 billion. The number of people depending on international trade will vary between 1.5 and 6 billion by 2050. Climate change may increase the need for international agricultural trade by 4\% to 16\%.}, language = {en} }