@article{KornhuberPetoukhovPetrietal.2016, author = {Kornhuber, Kai and Petoukhov, Vladimir and Petri, Stefan and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Coumou, Dim}, title = {Evidence for wave resonance as a key mechanism for generating high-amplitude quasi-stationary waves in boreal summer}, series = {Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system}, volume = {49}, journal = {Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {0930-7575}, doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3399-6}, pages = {1961 -- 1979}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Several recent northern hemisphere summer extremes have been linked to persistent high-amplitude wave patterns (e.g. heat waves in Europe 2003, Russia 2010 and in the US 2011, Floods in Pakistan 2010 and Europe 2013). Recently quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) was proposed as a mechanism that, when certain dynamical conditions are fulfilled, can lead to such high-amplitude wave events. Based on these resonance conditions a detection scheme to scan reanalysis data for QRA events in boreal summer months was implemented. With this objective detection scheme we analyzed the occurrence and duration of QRA events and the associated atmospheric flow patterns in 1979-2015 reanalysis data. We detect a total number of 178 events for wave 6, 7 and 8 and find that during roughly one-third of all high amplitude events QRA conditions were met for respective waves. Our analysis reveals a significant shift for quasi-stationary waves 6 and 7 towards high amplitudes during QRA events, lagging first QRA-detection by typically one week. The results provide further evidence for the validity of the QRA hypothesis and its important role in generating high amplitude waves in boreal summer.}, language = {en} } @article{KornhuberPetoukhovKarolyetal.2017, author = {Kornhuber, Kai and Petoukhov, Vladimir and Karoly, D. and Petri, Stefan and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Coumou, Dim}, title = {Summertime Planetary Wave Resonance in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres}, series = {Journal of climate}, volume = {30}, journal = {Journal of climate}, publisher = {American Meteorological Soc.}, address = {Boston}, issn = {0894-8755}, doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0703.1}, pages = {6133 -- 6150}, year = {2017}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Kornhuber2017, author = {Kornhuber, Kai}, title = {Rossby wave dynamics and changes in summertime weather extremes}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {xii, 222}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Extreme weather events like heatwaves and floods severely affect societies with impacts ranging from economic damages to losses in human lifes. Global warming caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase their frequency and intensity, particularly in the warm season. Next to these thermodynamic changes, climate change might also impact the large scale atmospheric circulation.Such dynamic changes might additionally act on the occurence of extreme weather events, but involved mechanisms are often highly non-linear. Therefore, large uncertainty exists on the exact nature of these changes and the related risks to society. Particularly in the densely populated mid-latitudes weather patterns are governed by the large scale circulation like the jet-streams and storm tracks. Extreme weather in this region is often related to persistent weather systems associated with a strongly meandering jet-stream. Such meanders are called Rossby waves. Under specific conditions they can become slow moving, stretched around the entire hemisphere and generate simultaneaous heat- and rainfall extremes in far-away regions. This thesis aims at enhancing the understanding of synoptic-scale, circumglobal Rossby waves and the associated risks of dynamical changes to society. More specific, the analyses investigate their relation to extreme weather, regions at risk, under which conditions they are generated, and the influence of anthropogenic climate change on those conditions now, in the past and in the future. I find that circumglobal Rossby waves promoted simultaneous occuring weather extremes across the northern hemisphere in several recent summers. Further, I present evidence that they are often linked to quasiresonant-amplification of planetary waves. These events include the 2003 European heatwave and the Moscow heatwave of 2010. This non-linear mechanism acts on the upper level flow through trapping and amplification of stationary synoptic scale waves. I show that this resonance mechanism acts in both hemispheres and is related to extreme weather. A main finding is that circumglobal Rossby waves primarily occur as two specific teleconnection patterns associated with a wave 5 and wave 7 pattern in the northern hemisphere, likely due to the favourable longitudinal distance of prominent mountain ridges here. Furthermore, I identify those regions which are particularly at risk: The central United States, western Europe and the Ukraine/Russian region. Moreover, I present evidence that the wave 7 pattern has and extreme weather in these regions. My results suggest that the increase in frequency can be linked to favourable changes in large scale temperature gradients, which I show to be largely underestimated by model simulations. Using surface temperature fingerprint as proxy for investigating historic and future model ensembles, evidence is presented that anthropogenic warming has likely increased the probability for the occurence of circumglobal Rossby waves. Further it is shown that this might lead to a doubling of such events until the end of the century under a high-emission scenario. Overall, this thesis establishes several atmosphere-dynamical pathways by which changes in large scale temperature gradients might link to persistent boreal summer weather. It highlights the societal risks associated with the increasing occurence of a newly discovered Rossby wave teleconnection pattern, which has the potential to cause simultaneaous heat-extremes in the mid-latitudinal bread-basket regions. In addition, it provides further evidence that the traditional picture by which quasi-stationary Rossby waves occur only in the low wavenumber regime, should be reconsidered.}, language = {en} } @article{MannRahmstorfKornhuberetal.2018, author = {Mann, Michael E. and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Kornhuber, Kai and Steinman, Byron A. and Miller, Sonya K. and Petri, Stefan and Coumou, Dim}, title = {Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events}, series = {Science Advances}, volume = {4}, journal = {Science Advances}, number = {10}, publisher = {American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2375-2548}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aat3272}, pages = {9}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50\% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events.}, language = {en} } @misc{MannRahmstorfKornhuberetal.2018, author = {Mann, Michael E. and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Kornhuber, Kai and Steinman, Byron A. and Miller, Sonya K. and Petri, Stefan and Coumou, Dim}, title = {Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {994}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-44641}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446416}, pages = {12}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50\% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events.}, language = {en} }