@misc{SultanaSiegKellermannetal.2018,
  author    = {Sultana, Zakia and Sieg, Tobias and Kellermann, Patric and M{\"u}ller, Meike and Kreibich, Heidi},
  title     = {Assessment of business interruption of flood-affected companies using random forests},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {939},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-45977},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-459778},
  pages     = {18},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Losses due to floods have dramatically increased over the past decades, and losses of companies, comprising direct and indirect losses, have a large share of the total economic losses. Thus, there is an urgent need to gain more quantitative knowledge about flood losses, particularly losses caused by business interruption, in order to mitigate the economic loss of companies. However, business interruption caused by floods is rarely assessed because of a lack of sufficiently detailed data. A survey was undertaken to explore processes influencing business interruption, which collected information on 557 companies affected by the severe flood in June 2013 in Germany. Based on this data set, the study aims to assess the business interruption of directly affected companies by means of a Random Forests model. Variables that influence the duration and costs of business interruption were identified by the variable importance measures of Random Forests. Additionally, Random Forest-based models were developed and tested for their capacity to estimate business interruption duration and associated costs. The water level was found to be the most important variable influencing the duration of business interruption. Other important variables, relating to the estimation of business interruption duration, are the warning time, perceived danger of flood recurrence and inundation duration. In contrast, the amount of business interruption costs is strongly influenced by the size of the company, as assessed by the number of employees, emergency measures undertaken by the company and the fraction of customers within a 50 km radius. These results provide useful information and methods for companies to mitigate their losses from business interruption. However, the heterogeneity of companies is relatively high, and sector-specific analyses were not possible due to the small sample size. Therefore, further sector-specific analyses on the basis of more flood loss data of companies are recommended.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SultanaSiegKellermannetal.2018,
  author    = {Sultana, Zakia and Sieg, Tobias and Kellermann, Patric and M{\"u}ller, Meike and Kreibich, Heidi},
  title     = {Assessment of business interruption of flood-affected companies using random forests},
  series = {Water},
  volume    = {10},
  journal   = {Water},
  number    = {8},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {2073-4441},
  doi       = {10.3390/w10081049},
  pages     = {16},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Losses due to floods have dramatically increased over the past decades, and losses of companies, comprising direct and indirect losses, have a large share of the total economic losses. Thus, there is an urgent need to gain more quantitative knowledge about flood losses, particularly losses caused by business interruption, in order to mitigate the economic loss of companies. However, business interruption caused by floods is rarely assessed because of a lack of sufficiently detailed data. A survey was undertaken to explore processes influencing business interruption, which collected information on 557 companies affected by the severe flood in June 2013 in Germany. Based on this data set, the study aims to assess the business interruption of directly affected companies by means of a Random Forests model. Variables that influence the duration and costs of business interruption were identified by the variable importance measures of Random Forests. Additionally, Random Forest-based models were developed and tested for their capacity to estimate business interruption duration and associated costs. The water level was found to be the most important variable influencing the duration of business interruption. Other important variables, relating to the estimation of business interruption duration, are the warning time, perceived danger of flood recurrence and inundation duration. In contrast, the amount of business interruption costs is strongly influenced by the size of the company, as assessed by the number of employees, emergency measures undertaken by the company and the fraction of customers within a 50 km radius. These results provide useful information and methods for companies to mitigate their losses from business interruption. However, the heterogeneity of companies is relatively high, and sector-specific analyses were not possible due to the small sample size. Therefore, further sector-specific analyses on the basis of more flood loss data of companies are recommended.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MuellerBesselPisietal.2015,
  author    = {M{\"u}ller, Meike and Bessel, Tina and Pisi, Sebastian and Kreibich, Heidi and Thieken, Annegret},
  title     = {Auswirkungen und Sch{\"a}den},
  series = {Das Hochwasser im Juni 2013 : Bew{\"a}hrungsprobe f{\"u}r das Hochwasserrisikomanagement in Deutschland},
  journal   = {Das Hochwasser im Juni 2013 : Bew{\"a}hrungsprobe f{\"u}r das Hochwasserrisikomanagement in Deutschland},
  isbn      = {978-3-933181-62-6},
  pages     = {31 -- 45},
  year      = {2015},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{ThiekenMohorKreibichetal.2022,
  author    = {Thieken, Annegret and Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna and Kreibich, Heidi and M{\"u}ller, Meike},
  title     = {Compound inland flood events},
  series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences : NHESS},
  volume    = {22},
  journal   = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences : NHESS},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1561-8633},
  doi       = {10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022},
  pages     = {165 -- 185},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Several severe flood events hit Germany in recent years, with events in 2013 and 2016 being the most destructive ones, although dynamics and flood processes were very different. While the 2013 event was a slowly rising widespread fluvial flood accompanied by some severe dike breaches, the events in 2016 were fast-onset pluvial floods, which resulted in surface water flooding in some places due to limited capacities of the drainage systems and in destructive flash floods with high sediment loads and clogging in others, particularly in small steep catchments. Hence, different pathways, i.e. different routes that the water takes to reach (and potentially damage) receptors, in our case private households, can be identified in both events. They can thus be regarded as spatially compound flood events or compound inland floods. This paper analyses how differently affected residents coped with these different flood types (fluvial and pluvial) and their impacts while accounting for the different pathways (river flood, dike breach, surface water flooding and flash flood) within the compound events. The analyses are based on two data sets with 1652 (for the 2013 flood) and 601 (for the 2016 flood) affected residents who were surveyed around 9 months after each flood, revealing little socio-economic differences - except for income - between the two samples. The four pathways showed significant differences with regard to their hydraulic and financial impacts, recovery, warning processes, and coping and adaptive behaviour. There are just small differences with regard to perceived self-efficacy and responsibility, offering entry points for tailored risk communication and support to improve property-level adaptation.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{RoezerMuellerBubecketal.2017,
  author    = {R{\"o}zer, Viktor and M{\"u}ller, Meike and Bubeck, Philip and Kienzler, Sarah and Thieken, Annegret and Pech, Ina and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Buchholz, Oliver and Kreibich, Heidi},
  title     = {Coping with pluvial floods by private households},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400465},
  pages     = {24},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban areas in recent years. With a projected increase in extreme precipitation as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, further insights, especially on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods and their mitigation, are needed. To gain more knowledge, empirical damage data from three different pluvial flood events in Germany were collected through computer-aided telephone interviews. Pluvial flood awareness as well as flood experience were found to be low before the respective flood events. The level of private precaution increased considerably after all events, but is mainly focused on measures that are easy to implement. Lower inundation depths, smaller potential losses as compared with fluvial floods, as well as the fact that pluvial flooding may occur everywhere, are expected to cause a shift in damage mitigation from precaution to emergency response. However, an effective implementation of emergency measures was constrained by a low dissemination of early warnings in the study areas. Further improvements of early warning systems including dissemination as well as a rise in pluvial flood preparedness are important to reduce future pluvial flood damage.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RoezerMuellerBubecketal.2016,
  author    = {R{\"o}zer, Viktor and M{\"u}ller, Meike and Bubeck, Philip and Kienzler, Sarah and Thieken, Annegret and Pech, Ina and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Buchholz, Oliver and Kreibich, Heidi},
  title     = {Coping with Pluvial Floods by Private Households},
  series = {Water},
  volume    = {8},
  journal   = {Water},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {2073-4441},
  doi       = {10.3390/w8070304},
  pages     = {24},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban areas in recent years. With a projected increase in extreme precipitation as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, further insights, especially on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods and their mitigation, are needed. To gain more knowledge, empirical damage data from three different pluvial flood events in Germany were collected through computer-aided telephone interviews. Pluvial flood awareness as well as flood experience were found to be low before the respective flood events. The level of private precaution increased considerably after all events, but is mainly focused on measures that are easy to implement. Lower inundation depths, smaller potential losses as compared with fluvial floods, as well as the fact that pluvial flooding may occur everywhere, are expected to cause a shift in damage mitigation from precaution to emergency response. However, an effective implementation of emergency measures was constrained by a low dissemination of early warnings in the study areas. Further improvements of early warning systems including dissemination as well as a rise in pluvial flood preparedness are important to reduce future pluvial flood damage.},
  language  = {en}
}
@book{ThiekenBesselCallsenetal.2015,
  author    = {Thieken, Annegret and Bessel, Tina and Callsen, Ines and Falter, Daniela and Hasan, Issa and Kienzler, Sarah and Kox, Thomas and Kreibich, Heidi and Kuhlicke, Christian and Kunz, Michael and Matthias, Max and Meyer, Volker and M{\"u}hr, Bernhard and M{\"u}ller, Meike and Otto, Antje and Pech, Ina and Petrow, Theresia and Pisi, Sebastian and Rother, Karl-Heinz and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai},
  title     = {Das Hochwasser im Juni 2013},
  series = {Schriftenreihe des DKKV ; 53},
  journal   = {Schriftenreihe des DKKV ; 53},
  publisher = {Deutsches Komitee Katastrophenvorsorge},
  address   = {Bonn},
  isbn      = {978-3-933181-62-6},
  publisher      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {207},
  year      = {2015},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{KreibichMuellerSchroeteretal.2017,
  author    = {Kreibich, Heidi and M{\"u}ller, Meike and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Thieken, Annegret},
  title     = {New insights into flood warning reception and emergency response by affected parties},
  series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  volume    = {17},
  journal   = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1561-8633},
  doi       = {10.5194/nhess-17-2075-2017},
  pages     = {2075 -- 2092},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Flood damage can be mitigated if the parties at risk are reached by flood warnings and if they know how to react appropriately. To gain more knowledge about warning reception and emergency response of private households and companies, surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany. Despite pronounced regional differences, the results show a clear overall picture: in 2002, early warnings did not work well; e.g. many households (27 \%) and companies (45 \%) stated that they had not received any flood warnings. Additionally, the preparedness of private households and companies was low in 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. After the 2002 flood, many initiatives were launched and investments undertaken to improve flood risk management, including early warnings and an emergency response in Germany. In 2013, only a small share of the affected households (5 \%) and companies (3 \%) were not reached by any warnings. Additionally, private households and companies were better prepared. For instance, the share of companies which have an emergency plan in place has increased from 10\% in 2002 to 34\% in 2013. However, there is still room for improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication. The challenge is to continuously maintain and advance an integrated early warning and emergency response system even without the occurrence of extreme floods.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{KreibichMuellerSchroeteretal.2017,
  author    = {Kreibich, Heidi and M{\"u}ller, Meike and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Thieken, Annegret},
  title     = {New insights into flood warning reception and emergency response by affected parties},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {659},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-41838},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418381},
  pages     = {18},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Flood damage can be mitigated if the parties at risk are reached by flood warnings and if they know how to react appropriately. To gain more knowledge about warning reception and emergency response of private households and companies, surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany. Despite pronounced regional differences, the results show a clear overall picture: in 2002, early warnings did not work well; e.g. many households (27 \%) and companies (45 \%) stated that they had not received any flood warnings. Additionally, the preparedness of private households and companies was low in 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. After the 2002 flood, many initiatives were launched and investments undertaken to improve flood risk management, including early warnings and an emergency response in Germany. In 2013, only a small share of the affected households (5 \%) and companies (3 \%) were not reached by any warnings. Additionally, private households and companies were better prepared. For instance, the share of companies which have an emergency plan in place has increased from 10\% in 2002 to 34\% in 2013. However, there is still room for improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication. The challenge is to continuously maintain and advance an integrated early warning and emergency response system even without the occurrence of extreme floods.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RoezerKreibichSchroeteretal.2019,
  author    = {R{\"o}zer, Viktor and Kreibich, Heidi and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and M{\"u}ller, Meike and Sairam, Nivedita and Doss-Gollin, James and Lall, Upmanu and Merz, Bruno},
  title     = {Probabilistic Models Significantly Reduce Uncertainty in Hurricane Harvey Pluvial Flood Loss Estimates},
  series = {Earths future},
  volume    = {7},
  journal   = {Earths future},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {2328-4277},
  doi       = {10.1029/2018EF001074},
  pages     = {384 -- 394},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Pluvial flood risk is mostly excluded in urban flood risk assessment. However, the risk of pluvial flooding is a growing challenge with a projected increase of extreme rainstorms compounding with an ongoing global urbanization. Considered as a flood type with minimal impacts when rainfall rates exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, the aftermath of rainfall-triggered flooding during Hurricane Harvey and other events show the urgent need to assess the risk of pluvial flooding. Due to the local extent and small-scale variations, the quantification of pluvial flood risk requires risk assessments on high spatial resolutions. While flood hazard and exposure information is becoming increasingly accurate, the estimation of losses is still a poorly understood component of pluvial flood risk quantification. We use a new probabilistic multivariable modeling approach to estimate pluvial flood losses of individual buildings, explicitly accounting for the associated uncertainties. Except for the water depth as the common most important predictor, we identified the drivers for having loss or not and for the degree of loss to be different. Applying this approach to estimate and validate building structure losses during Hurricane Harvey using a property level data set, we find that the reliability and dispersion of predictive loss distributions vary widely depending on the model and aggregation level of property level loss estimates. Our results show that the use of multivariable zero-inflated beta models reduce the 90\% prediction intervalsfor Hurricane Harvey building structure loss estimates on average by 78\% (totalling U.S.\$3.8 billion) compared to commonly used models.},
  language  = {en}
}