@article{ArrowsmithCrosbyKorzhenkovetal.2017, author = {Arrowsmith, J. Ramon and Crosby, Christopher J. and Korzhenkov, Andrey M. and Mamyrov, Ernest and Povolotskaya, Irina and Guralnik, Benny and Landgraf, Angela}, title = {Surface rupture of the 1911 Kebin (Chon-Kemin) earthquake, Northern Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan}, series = {Seismicity, fault rupture and earthquake hazards in slowly deforming regions}, volume = {432}, journal = {Seismicity, fault rupture and earthquake hazards in slowly deforming regions}, publisher = {The Geological Society}, address = {London}, isbn = {978-1-86239-745-3}, issn = {0305-8719}, doi = {10.1144/SP432.10}, pages = {233 -- 253}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The 1911 Chon-Kemin (Kebin) earthquake culminated c. 30 years of remarkable earthquakes in the northern Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan). Building on prior mapping of the event, we traced its rupture in the field and measured more than 50 offset landforms. Cumulative fault rupture length is >155-195 km along 13 fault patches comprising six sections. The patches are separated by changes of dip magnitude or dip direction, or by 4-10 km-wide stepovers. One <40 km section overlaps and is parallel to the main north-dipping rupture but is 7 km north and dips opposite (south). Both ends of the rupture are along mountain front thrust faults demonstrating late Quaternary activity. We computed the moment from each fault patch using the surface fault traces, dip inferred from the traces, 20 km seismogenic thickness, rigidity of 3.3 x 10(10) N m(-2) and dip slip converted from our observations of the largely reverse sense of motion vertical offsets. The discontinuous patches with c. 3-4 m average slip and peak slip of <14 m yield a seismic moment of 4.6 x 10(20) Nm (M-w 7.78) to 7.4 x 10(20) Nm (M-w 7.91). The majority of moment was released along the inner eastern rupture segments. This geological moment is lower by a factor of 1.5 from that determined from teleseismic data.}, language = {en} } @article{KruegerKulikovaLandgraf2017, author = {Kr{\"u}ger, Frank and Kulikova, Galina and Landgraf, Angela}, title = {Instrumental magnitude constraints for the 11 July 1889, Chilik earthquake}, series = {Seismicity, fault rupture and earthquake hazards in slowly deforming regions}, volume = {432}, journal = {Seismicity, fault rupture and earthquake hazards in slowly deforming regions}, publisher = {The Geological Society}, address = {London}, isbn = {978-1-86239-745-3}, issn = {0305-8719}, doi = {10.1144/SP432.8}, pages = {41 -- 72}, year = {2017}, abstract = {A series of large-magnitude earthquakes above 6.9 occurred in the northern Tien-Shan between 1885 and 1911. The Chilik earthquake of 11 July 1889, has been listed with a magnitude of 8.3, based on sparse macroseismic intensities, constrained by reported damage. Despite the existence of several juvenile fault scarps in the epicentral region, that are possibly associated with the 1889 earthquake, no through-going surface rupture having the dimensions expected for a magnitude 8.3 earthquake has been located - a puzzling dilemma. Could the magnitude have been overestimated? This would have major implications not only for the understanding of the earthquake series, but also for regional hazard estimates. Fortunately, a fragmentary record from an early Rebeur-Paschwitz seismometer exists for the Chilik event, recorded in Wilhelmshaven (Germany). To constrain the magnitude, we compare the late coda waves of this record with those of recent events from Central Asia, recorded on modern instruments in Germany and filtered with Rebeur-Paschwitz instrument characteristics. Additional constraints come from disturbances of historic magnetograms that exist from the Chilik and the 1911 Chon-Kemin earthquakes. Scaling of these historic records confirm a magnitude of about 8 for the 1889 Chilik earthquake, pointing towards a lower crustal contribution to the fault area.}, language = {en} } @article{LandgrafKueblerHintersbergeretal.2017, author = {Landgraf, Angela and K{\"u}bler, Simon and Hintersberger, Esther and Stein, Seth}, title = {Active tectonics, earthquakes and palaeoseismicity in slowly deforming continents}, series = {Seismicity, fault rupture and earthquake hazards in slowly deforming regions}, volume = {432}, journal = {Seismicity, fault rupture and earthquake hazards in slowly deforming regions}, number = {1}, publisher = {The Geological Society}, address = {London}, isbn = {978-1-86239-745-3}, issn = {0305-8719}, doi = {10.1144/SP432.13}, pages = {1 -- 12}, year = {2017}, language = {en} } @article{PatyniakLandgrafDzhumabaevaetal.2017, author = {Patyniak, Magda and Landgraf, Angela and Dzhumabaeva, Atyrgul and Abdrakhmatov, Kanatbek E. and Rosenwinkel, Swenja and Korup, Oliver and Preusser, Frank and Fohlmeister, Jens Bernd and Arrowsmith, J. Ramon and Strecker, Manfred}, title = {Paleoseismic Record of Three Holocene Earthquakes Rupturing the Issyk-Ata Fault near Bishkek, North Kyrgyzstan}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, volume = {107}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120170083}, pages = {2721 -- 2737}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The northern edge of the western central Tien Shan range is bounded by the Issyk-Ata fault situated south of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. Contraction in this thick-skinned orogen occurs with low-strain accumulation and long earthquake recurrence intervals. In the nineteenth to twentieth centuries, a sequence of large earthquakes with magnitudes between 6.9 and 8 affected the northern Tien Shan but left nearly the entire extent of the Issyk-Ata fault unruptured. Here, the only known historic earthquake ruptured in A.D. 1885 (M6.9) along the western end of the Issyk-Ata fault. Because earthquakes in low-strain regions often tend to cluster in time and may promote failure along nearby structures, the earthquake history of the northern Tien Shan represents an exceptional structural setting for studying fault behavior affected by an intraplate earthquake sequence. We present a paleoseismological study from one site (Belek) along the Issyk-Ata fault located east of the A.D. 1885 epicentral area. Our analysis combines a range of tools, including photogrammetry, differential Global Positioning System, 3D visualization, and age modeling with different dating methods (infrared stimulated luminescence, radiocarbon, U-series) to improve the reliability of an event chronology for the trench stratigraphy and fault geometry. We were able to distinguish three different surfacerupturing paleoearthquakes; these affected the area before 10.5 +/- 1.1 cal ka B.P., at similar to 5.6 +/- 1.0 cal ka B.P., and at similar to 630 +/- 100 cal B.P., respectively. Associated paleomagnitudes for the last two earthquakes range between M6.7 and 7.4, with a cumulative slip rate of 0.7 +/- 0.32 mm/yr. We did not find evidence for the A.D. 1885 event at Belek. Our study yielded two main overall results: first, it extends the regional historic and paleoseismic record; second, the documented rupture events along the Issyk-Ata fault suggest that this fault was not affected in its entirety; instead, these events indicate segmented rupture behavior.}, language = {en} } @article{RosenwinkelLandgrafSchwanghartetal.2017, author = {Rosenwinkel, Swenja and Landgraf, Angela and Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Volkmer, Friedrich and Dzhumabaeva, Atyrgul and Merchel, Silke and Rugel, Georg and Preusser, Frank and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Late Pleistocene outburst floods from Issyk Kul, Kyrgyzstan?}, series = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, volume = {42}, journal = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0197-9337}, doi = {10.1002/esp.4109}, pages = {1535 -- 1548}, year = {2017}, language = {en} } @article{SteinLiuCamelbeecketal.2017, author = {Stein, Seth and Liu, Mian and Camelbeeck, Thierry and Merino, Miguel and Landgraf, Angela and Hintersberger, Esther and K{\"u}bler, Simon}, title = {Challenges in assessing seismic hazard in intraplate Europe}, series = {Seismicity, fault rupture and earthquake hazards in slowly deforming regions}, volume = {432}, journal = {Seismicity, fault rupture and earthquake hazards in slowly deforming regions}, editor = {Landgraf, Angelika and K{\"u}bler, Simon and Hintersberger, Esther and Stein, Seth}, publisher = {The Geological Society}, address = {London}, isbn = {978-1-86239-745-3}, issn = {0305-8719}, doi = {10.1144/SP432.7}, pages = {13 -- 28}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Intraplate seismicity is often characterized by episodic, clustered and migrating earthquakes and extended after-shock sequences. Can these observations - primarily from North America, China and Australia - usefully be applied to seismic hazard assessment for intraplate Europe? Existing assessments are based on instrumental and historical seismicity of the past c. 1000 years, as well as some data for active faults. This time span probably fails to capture typical large-event recurrence intervals of the order of tens of thousands of years. Palaeoseismology helps to lengthen the observation window, but preferentially produces data in regions suspected to be seismically active. Thus the expected maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes are fairly uncertain, possibly underestimated, and earthquakes are likely to occur in unexpected locations. These issues particularly arise in considering the hazards posed by low-probability events to both heavily populated areas and critical facilities. For example, are the variations in seismicity (and thus assumed seismic hazard) along the Rhine Graben a result of short sampling or are they real? In addition to a better assessment of hazards with new data and models, it is important to recognize and communicate uncertainties in hazard estimates. The more users know about how much confidence to place in hazard maps, the more effectively the maps can be used.}, language = {en} }