@article{BormanndeBritoCharchousietal.2018,
  author    = {Bormann, Helge and de Brito, Mariana Madruga and Charchousi, Despoina and Chatzistratis, Dimitris and David, Amrei and Grosser, Paula Farina and Kebschull, Jenny and Konis, Alexandros and Koutalakis, Paschalis and Korali, Alkistis and Krauzig, Naomi and Meier, Jessica and Meliadou, Varvara and Meinhardt, Markus and Munnelly, Kieran and Stephan, Christiane and de Vos, Leon Frederik and Dietrich, J{\"o}rg and Tzoraki, Ourania},
  title     = {Impact of Hydrological Modellers' Decisions and Attitude on the Performance of a Calibrated Conceptual Catchment Model},
  series = {Hydrology},
  volume    = {5},
  journal   = {Hydrology},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {2306-5338},
  doi       = {10.3390/hydrology5040064},
  pages     = {13},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {In this study, 17 hydrologists with different experience in hydrological modelling applied the same conceptual catchment model (HBV) to a Greek catchment, using identical data and model code. Calibration was performed manually. Subsequently, the modellers were asked for their experience, their calibration strategy, and whether they enjoyed the exercise. The exercise revealed that there is considerable modellers' uncertainty even among the experienced modellers. It seemed to be equally important whether the modellers followed a good calibration strategy, and whether they enjoyed modelling. The exercise confirmed previous studies about the benefit of model ensembles: Different combinations of the simulation results (median, mean) outperformed the individual model simulations, while filtering the simulations even improved the quality of the model ensembles. Modellers' experience, decisions, and attitude, therefore, have an impact on the hydrological model application and should be considered as part of hydrological modelling uncertainty.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BreuerBormannBronstertetal.2009,
  author    = {Breuer, Lutz and Bormann, Helge and Bronstert, Axel and Croke, Barry F. W. and Frede, Hans-Georg and Gr{\"a}ff, Thomas and Hubrechts, Lode and Kite, Geoffrey and Lanini, Jordan and Leavesley, George and Lettenmaier, Dennis P. and Lindstroem, Goeran and Seibert, Jan and Sivapalan, Mayuran and Viney, Neil R. and Willems, Patrick},
  title     = {Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III : scenario analysis},
  issn      = {0309-1708},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.06.009},
  year      = {2009},
  abstract  = {An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90\% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions.},
  language  = {en}
}