@unpublished{Eckstein2010,
  author    = {Eckstein, Lars},
  title     = {Think local sell global},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-85537},
  pages     = {12},
  year      = {2010},
  language  = {en}
}
@unpublished{Franz2010,
  author    = {Franz, Norbert P.},
  title     = {Who shot K.G.? : Akunin ermittelt},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-46364},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {Vortrag gehalten auf dem Dritten Internationalen Cechov-Symposium in Badenweiler (Oktober 2004).},
  language  = {de}
}
@unpublished{Siegert2010,
  author    = {Siegert, Sabine},
  title     = {Das Sankt-Petersburg-Paradoxon},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-49595},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {Aus dem Inhalt: 1 Einleitung 2 Historische L{\"o}sungsans{\"a}tze 3 Martingal-Ansatz 4 Markovketten-Ansatz 5 Asymptotische Interpretationen 6 Bezug zur Praxis 7 R{\´e}sum{\´e} Anhang Literaturverzeichnis},
  language  = {de}
}
@unpublished{Kunze2010,
  author    = {Kunze, Simone},
  title     = {Das Sammelbilderproblem},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-51646},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {Aus dem Inhalt: 1 Einleitung 2 Entwicklung der L{\"o}sungsans{\"a}tze 3 Martingalansatz 4 Markov-Ketten Ansatz 5 Einbettung in Poisson Prozesse 6 Kombinatorische Ans{\"a}tze 7 Zusammenfassung und Ausblick Literaturverzeichnis},
  language  = {de}
}
@unpublished{Roelly2010,
  author    = {Roelly, Sylvie},
  title     = {Unas propiedades basicas de procesos de ramificaci{\´o}n : Lectures held at ICIMAF La Habana, Cuba, 2009 and 2010},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-49620},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {Aus dem Inhalt: 1. Unas propiedades de los procesos de Bienaym{\´e}-Galton-Watson de tiempo dis- creto (BGW) 2. Unas propiedades del proceso BGW de tiempo continuo 3. Limites de procesos de BGW cuando la poblaci{\´o}n es numerosa},
  language  = {mul}
}
@unpublished{LaeuterRamadan2010,
  author    = {L{\"a}uter, Henning and Ramadan, Ayad},
  title     = {Statistical Scaling of Categorical Data},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-49566},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {Estimation and testing of distributions in metric spaces are well known. R.A. Fisher, J. Neyman, W. Cochran and M. Bartlett achieved essential results on the statistical analysis of categorical data. In the last 40 years many other statisticians found important results in this field. Often data sets contain categorical data, e.g. levels of factors or names. There does not exist any ordering or any distance between these categories. At each level there are measured some metric or categorical values. We introduce a new method of scaling based on statistical decisions. For this we define empirical probabilities for the original observations and find a class of distributions in a metric space where these empirical probabilities can be found as approximations for equivalently defined probabilities. With this method we identify probabilities connected with the categorical data and probabilities in metric spaces. Here we get a mapping from the levels of factors or names into points of a metric space. This mapping yields the scale for the categorical data. From the statistical point of view we use multivariate statistical methods, we calculate maximum likelihood estimations and compare different approaches for scaling.},
  language  = {en}
}
@unpublished{Penisson2010,
  author    = {P{\´e}nisson, Sophie},
  title     = {Estimation of the infection parameter in the different phases of an epidemic modeled by a branching process},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-49607},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {The aim of this paper is to build and compare estimators of the infection parameter in the different phases of an epidemic (growth and extinction phases). The epidemic is modeled by a Markovian process of order d > 1 (allowing non-Markovian life spans), and can be written as a multitype branching process. We propose three estimators suitable for the different classes of criticality of the process, in particular for the subcritical case corresponding to the extinction phase. We prove their consistency and asymptotic normality for two asymptotics, when the number of ancestors (resp. number of generations) tends to infinity. We illustrate the asymptotic properties with simulated examples, and finally use our estimators to study the infection intensity in the extinction phase of the BSE epidemic in Great-Britain.},
  language  = {en}
}
@unpublished{Penisson2010,
  author    = {P{\´e}nisson, Sophie},
  title     = {Conditional Limit Theorems for Multitype Branching Processes and Illustration in Epidemiological Risk Analysis},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-49589},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {This thesis is concerned with the issue of extinction of populations composed of different types of individuals, and their behavior before extinction and in case of a very late extinction. We approach this question firstly from a strictly probabilistic viewpoint, and secondly from the standpoint of risk analysis related to the extinction of a particular model of population dynamics. In this context we propose several statistical tools. The population size is modeled by a branching process, which is either a continuous-time multitype Bienaym{\´e}-Galton-Watson process (BGWc), or its continuous-state counterpart, the multitype Feller diffsion process. We are interested in different kinds of conditioning on nonextinction, and in the associated equilibrium states. These ways of conditioning have been widely studied in the monotype case. However the literature on multitype processes is much less extensive, and there is no systematic work establishing connections between the results for BGWc processes and those for Feller diffusion processes. In the first part of this thesis, we investigate the behavior of the population before its extinction by conditioning the associated branching process Xt on non-extinction (Xt 6= 0), or more generally on non-extinction in a near future 0 < 1 (Xt+ 0 = 0), and by letting t tend to infinity. We prove the result, new in the multitype framework and for 0 > 0, that this limit exists and is nondegenerate. This re ects a stationary behavior for the dynamics of the population conditioned on non-extinction, and provides a generalization of the so-called Yaglom limit, corresponding to the case 0 = 0. In a second step we study the behavior of the population in case of a very late extinction, obtained as the limit when 0 tends to infinity of the process conditioned by Xt+ 0 = 0. The resulting conditioned process is a known object in the monotype case (sometimes referred to as Q-process), and has also been studied when Xt is a multitype Feller diffusion process. We investigate the not yet considered case where Xt is a multitype BGWc process and prove the existence of the associated Q-process. In addition, we examine its properties, including the asymptotic ones, and propose several interpretations of the process. Finally, we are interested in interchanging the limits in t and 0, as well as in the not yet studied commutativity of these limits with respect to the high-density-type relationship between BGWc processes and Feller processes. We prove an original and exhaustive list of all possible exchanges of limit (long-time limit in t, increasing delay of extinction 0, diffusion limit). The second part of this work is devoted to the risk analysis related both to the extinction of a population and to its very late extinction. We consider a branching population model (arising notably in the epidemiological context) for which a parameter related to the first moments of the offspring distribution is unknown. We build several estimators adapted to different stages of evolution of the population (phase growth, decay phase, and decay phase when extinction is expected very late), and prove moreover their asymptotic properties (consistency, normality). In particular, we build a least squares estimator adapted to the Q-process, allowing a prediction of the population development in the case of a very late extinction. This would correspond to the best or to the worst-case scenario, depending on whether the population is threatened or invasive. These tools enable us to study the extinction phase of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy epidemic in Great Britain, for which we estimate the infection parameter corresponding to a possible source of horizontal infection persisting after the removal in 1988 of the major route of infection (meat and bone meal). This allows us to predict the evolution of the spread of the disease, including the year of extinction, the number of future cases and the number of infected animals. In particular, we produce a very fine analysis of the evolution of the epidemic in the unlikely event of a very late extinction.},
  language  = {en}
}
@unpublished{Kuxhaus2010,
  author    = {Kuxhaus, Olga},
  title     = {Parametrische Sch{\"a}tzungen von elliptischen Copulafunktionen},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-51681},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {Aus dem Inhalt: Inhaltsverzeichnis Abbildungsverzeichnis Tabellenverzeichnis 1 Einleitung und Motivation 2 Multivariate Copulafunktionen 2.1 Einleitung 2.2 Satz von Sklar 2.3 Eigenschaften von Copulafunktionen 3 Abh{\"a}ngigkeitskonzepte 3.1 Lineare Korrelation 3.2 Copulabasierte Abh{\"a}ngigkeitsmaße 3.2.1 Konkordanz 3.2.2 Kendall's und Spearman's 3.2.3 Asymptotische Randabh{\"a}ngigkeit 4 Elliptische Copulaklasse 4.1 Sph{\"a}rische und elliptische Verteilungen 4.2 Normal-Copula 4.3 t-Copula 5 Parametrische Sch{\"a}tzverfahren 5.1 Maximum-Likelihood-Methode 5.1.1 ExakteMaximum-Likelihood-Methode 5.1.2 2-stufige parametrische Maximum-Likelihood-Methode 5.1.3 2-stufige semiparametrische Maximum-Likelihood-Methode 5.2 Momentenmethode 5.3 Kendall's -Momentenmethode 6 Parametersch{\"a}tzungen f{\"u}r Normal- und t-Copula 6.1 Normal-Copula 6.1.1 Maximum-Likelihood-Methode 6.1.2 Momentenmethode 6.1.3 Kendall's Momentenmethode 6.1.4 Spearman's Momentenmethode 6.2 t-Copula 6.2.1 Verfahren 1 (exakte ML-Methode) 6.2.2 Verfahren 2 (2-stufige rekursive ML-Methode) 6.2.3 Verfahren 3 (2-stufige KM-ML-Methode) 6.2.4 Verfahren 4 (3-stufige M-ML-Methode) 7 Simulationen 7.1 Grundlagen 7.2 Parametrischer Fall 7.3 Nichtparametrischer Fall 7.4 Fazit A Programmausschnitt Literaturverzeichnis},
  language  = {de}
}
@unpublished{Voss2010,
  author    = {Voss, Carola Regine},
  title     = {Harness-Prozesse},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-49651},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {Harness-Prozesse finden in der Forschung immer mehr Anwendung. Vor allem gewinnen Harness-Prozesse in stetiger Zeit an Bedeutung. Grundlegende Literatur zu diesem Thema ist allerdings wenig vorhanden. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird die vorhandene Grundlagenliteratur zu Harness-Prozessen in diskreter und stetiger Zeit aufgearbeitet und Beweise ausgef{\"u}hrt, die bisher nur skizziert waren. Ziel dessen ist die Existenz einer Zerlegung von Harness-Prozessen {\"u}ber Z beziehungsweise R+ nachzuweisen.},
  language  = {de}
}