@article{Lovatt2023, author = {Lovatt, Helen}, title = {Resurrecting the Argo}, series = {thersites 17}, volume = {2023}, journal = {thersites 17}, number = {17}, editor = {Potter, Amanda and Gardner, Hunter H.}, issn = {2364-7612}, doi = {10.34679/thersites.vol17.254}, pages = {55 -- 95}, year = {2023}, abstract = {This paper analyses the relationship between the figure of the Argo (ship and character) and the supernatural in the mythic fantasy of Robert Holdstock's Merlin Codex. It shows how Holdstock's re-writing of the Argonautica draws on various versions from the Argonautic tradition, including Euripides' Medea, Apollonius, Valerius Flaccus, Nathaniel Hawthorne, Henry Treece and the 1963 film Jason and the Argonauts. It sets Holdstock's Argo alongside other representations, as divine herself, possessed by divinity, and a channel of communication with the divine, and in the context of Holdstock's previous work, particularly Mythago Wood, Lavondyss and Merlin's Wood. The paper argues that Holdstock uses the Argo as a reflection of myth itself, a version of the forest in Mythago Wood, as well as a metapoetic image for the challenges and complexities of adapting a well-known story, bringing multiple mythological traditions (Arthurian, Finnish and Argonautic) together. It reflects on Holdstock's relationship to the ancient genres of epic and tragedy, as well as Argo as plot facilitator and mechanism of transformation and transition. Holdstock's relationship with ancient literature is richer and deeper than previously acknowledged; his self-conscious plays reveal a deep understanding of the polymorphous nature of mythical traditions.}, language = {en} } @article{TsebelisThiesCheibubetal.2023, author = {Tsebelis, George and Thies, Michael and Cheibub, Jos{\´e} Antonio and Dixon, Rosalind and Bog{\´e}a, Daniel and Ganghof, Steffen}, title = {Review symposium}, series = {European political science}, journal = {European political science}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, address = {Basingstoke}, issn = {1680-4333}, doi = {10.1057/s41304-023-00426-9}, pages = {20}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Steffen Ganghof's Beyond Presidentialism and Parliamentarism: Democratic Design and the Separation of Powers (Oxford University Press, 2021) posits that "in a democracy, a constitutional separation of powers between the executive and the assembly may be desirable, but the constitutional concentration of executive power in a single human being is not" (Ganghof, 2021). To consider, examine and theorise about this, Ganghof urges engagement with semi-parliamentarism. As explained by Ganghof, legislative power is shared between two democratically legitimate sections of parliament in a semi-parliamentary system, but only one of those sections selects the government and can remove it in a no-confidence vote. Consequently, power is dispersed and not concentrated in the hands of any one person, which, Ganghof argues, can lead to an enhanced form of parliamentary democracy. In this book review symposium, George Tsebelis, Michael Thies, Jos{\´e} Antonio Cheibub, Rosalind Dixon and Daniel Bog{\´e}a review Steffen Ganghof's book and engage with the author about aspects of research design, case selection and theoretical argument. This symposium arose from an engaging and constructive discussion of the book at a seminar hosted by Texas A\&M University in 2022. We thank Prof Jos{\´e} Cheibub (Texas A\&M) for organising that seminar and Dr Anna Fruhstorfer (University of Potsdam) for initiating this book review symposium.}, language = {en} } @article{LiedlFritschSamperMejiaetal.2023, author = {Liedl, Bernd and Fritsch, Nina-Sophie and Samper Mejia, Cristina and Verwiebe, Roland}, title = {Risk perceptions of individuals living in single-parent households during the COVID-19 crisis}, series = {Frontiers in sociology}, volume = {8}, journal = {Frontiers in sociology}, publisher = {Frontiers Media}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {2297-7775}, doi = {10.3389/fsoc.2023.1265302}, pages = {13}, year = {2023}, abstract = {The COVID-19 crisis had severe social and economic impact on the life of most citizens around the globe. Individuals living in single-parent households were particularly at risk, revealing detrimental labour market outcomes and assessments of future perspectives marked by worries. As it has not been investigated yet, in this paper we study, how their perception about the future and their outlook on how the pandemic will affect them is related to their objective economic resources. Against this background, we examine the subjective risk perception of worsening living standards of individuals living in single-parent households compared to other household types, their objective economic situation based on the logarithmised equivalised disposable household incomes and analyse the relationship between those indicators. Using the German SOEP, including the SOEP-CoV survey from 2020, our findings based on regression modelling reveal that individuals living in single-parent households have been worse off during the pandemic, facing high economic insecurity. Path and interaction models support our assumption that the association between those indicators may not be that straightforward, as there are underlying mechanisms-such as mediation and moderation-of income affecting its direction and strength. With respect to our central hypotheses, our empirical findings point toward (1) a mediation effect, by demonstrating that the subjective risk perception of single-parent households can be partly explained by economic conditions. (2) The moderating effect suggests that the concrete position at the income distribution of households matters as well. While at the lower end of the income distribution, single-parent households reveal particularly worse risk perceptions during the pandemic, at the high end of the income spectrum, risk perceptions are similar for all household types. Thus, individuals living in single-parent households do not perceive higher risks of worsening living standards due to their household situation per se, but rather because they are worse off in terms of their economic situation compared to individuals living in other household types.}, language = {en} } @article{EbnerEdelsbrunnerHohlaSejkoraetal.2023, author = {Ebner, Martin and Edelsbrunner, Sarah and Hohla-Sejkora, Katharina and Lipp, Silvia and Sch{\"o}n, Sandra}, title = {Role of MOOCs and Imoox for Austrian Universities}, series = {EMOOCs 2023 : Post-Covid Prospects for Massive Open Online Courses - Boost or Backlash?}, journal = {EMOOCs 2023 : Post-Covid Prospects for Massive Open Online Courses - Boost or Backlash?}, editor = {Meinel, Christoph and Schweiger, Stefanie and Staubitz, Thomas and Conrad, Robert and Alario Hoyos, Carlos and Ebner, Martin and Sancassani, Susanna and Żur, Agnieszka and Friedl, Christian and Halawa, Sherif and Gamage, Dilrukshi and Scott, Jeffrey and Kristine Jonson Carlon, May and Deville, Yves and Gaebel, Michael and Delgado Kloos, Carlos and von Schmieden, Karen}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam}, address = {Potsdam}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-62213}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-622134}, pages = {77 -- 84}, year = {2023}, abstract = {This research paper provides an overview of the current state of MOOCs (massive open online courses) and universities in Austria, focusing on the national MOOC platform iMooX.at. The study begins by presenting the results of an analysis of the performance agreements of 22 Austrian public universities for the period 2022-2024, with a specific focus on the mention of MOOC activities and iMooX. The authors find that 12 of 22 (55 \%) Austrian public universities use at least one of these terms, indicating a growing interest in MOOCs and online learning. Additionally, the authors analyze internal documentation data to share insights into how many universities in Austria have produced and/or used a MOOC on the iMooX platform since its launch in 2014. These findings provide a valuable measure of the current usage and monitoring of MOOCs and iMooX among Austrian higher education institutions. Overall, this research contributes to a better understanding of the current state of MOOCs and their integration within Austrian higher education.}, language = {en} } @article{RodriguezSanchezWucherpfennigRischkeetal.2023, author = {Rodr{\´i}guez S{\´a}nchez, Alejandra and Wucherpfennig, Julian and Rischke, Ramona and Iacus, Stefano Maria}, title = {Search-and-rescue in the Central Mediterranean Route does not induce migration}, series = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, journal = {Scientific reports}, number = {1}, publisher = {Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature}, address = {London}, issn = {2045-2322}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-023-38119-4}, pages = {1}, year = {2023}, abstract = {State- and private-led search-and-rescue are hypothesized to foster irregular migration (and thereby migrant fatalities) by altering the decision calculus associated with the journey. We here investigate this 'pull factor' claim by focusing on the Central Mediterranean route, the most frequented and deadly irregular migration route towards Europe during the past decade. Based on three intervention periods—(1) state-led Mare Nostrum, (2) private-led search-and-rescue, and (3) coordinated pushbacks by the Libyan Coast Guard—which correspond to substantial changes in laws, policies, and practices of search-and-rescue in the Mediterranean, we are able to test the 'pull factor' claim by employing an innovative machine learning method in combination with causal inference. We employ a Bayesian structural time-series model to estimate the effects of these three intervention periods on the migration flow as measured by crossing attempts (i.e., time-series aggregate counts of arrivals, pushbacks, and deaths), adjusting for various known drivers of irregular migration. We combine multiple sources of traditional and non-traditional data to build a synthetic, predicted counterfactual flow. Results show that our predictive modeling approach accurately captures the behavior of the target time-series during the various pre-intervention periods of interest. A comparison of the observed and predicted counterfactual time-series in the post-intervention periods suggest that pushback policies did affect the migration flow, but that the search-and-rescue periods did not yield a discernible difference between the observed and the predicted counterfactual number of crossing attempts. Hence we do not find support for search-and-rescue as a driver of irregular migration. In general, this modeling approach lends itself to forecasting migration flows with the goal of answering causal queries in migration research.}, language = {en} } @article{SharmaHainzlZoeller2023, author = {Sharma, Shubham and Hainzl, Sebastian and Z{\"o}ller, Gert}, title = {Seismicity parameters dependence on main shock-induced co-seismic stress}, series = {Geophysical journal international}, volume = {235}, journal = {Geophysical journal international}, number = {1}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0956-540X}, doi = {10.1093/gji/ggad201}, pages = {509 -- 517}, year = {2023}, abstract = {The Gutenberg-Richter (GR) and the Omori-Utsu (OU) law describe the earthquakes' energy release and temporal clustering and are thus of great importance for seismic hazard assessment. Motivated by experimental results, which indicate stress-dependent parameters, we consider a combined global data set of 127 main shock-aftershock sequences and perform a systematic study of the relationship between main shock-induced stress changes and associated seismicity patterns. For this purpose, we calculate space-dependent Coulomb Stress (\& UDelta;CFS) and alternative receiver-independent stress metrics in the surrounding of the main shocks. Our results indicate a clear positive correlation between the GR b-value and the induced stress, contrasting expectations from laboratory experiments and suggesting a crucial role of structural heterogeneity and strength variations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the aftershock productivity increases nonlinearly with stress, while the OU parameters c and p systematically decrease for increasing stress changes. Our partly unexpected findings can have an important impact on future estimations of the aftershock hazard.}, language = {en} } @article{CaliendoKritikosRodriguezetal.2023, author = {Caliendo, Marco and Kritikos, Alexander and Rodr{\´i}guez, Daniel and Stier, Claudia}, title = {Self-efficacy and entrepreneurial performance of start-ups}, series = {Small business economics}, journal = {Small business economics}, publisher = {Springer Science}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0921-898X}, doi = {10.1007/s11187-022-00728-0}, pages = {25}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Self-efficacy reflects the self-belief that one can persistently perform difficult and novel tasks while coping with adversity. As such beliefs reflect how individuals behave, think, and act, they are key for successful entrepreneurial activities. While existing literature mainly analyzes the influence of the task-related construct of entrepreneurial self-efficacy, we take a different perspective and investigate, based on a representative sample of 1,405 German business founders, how the personality characteristic of generalized self-efficacy influences start-up performance as measured by a broad set of business outcomes up to 19 months after business creation. Outcomes include start-up survival and entrepreneurial income, as well as growth-oriented outcomes such as job creation and innovation. We find statistically significant and economically important positive effects of high scores of self-efficacy on start-up survival and entrepreneurial income, which become even stronger when focusing on the growth-oriented outcome of innovation. Furthermore, we observe that generalized self-efficacy is similarly distributed between female and male business founders, with effects being partly stronger for female entrepreneurs. Our findings are important for policy instruments that are meant to support firm growth by facilitating the design of more target-oriented offers for training, coaching, and entrepreneurial incubators.}, language = {en} } @article{WarschburgerGmeinerBondueetal.2023, author = {Warschburger, Petra and Gmeiner, Michaela Silvia and Bond{\"u}, Rebecca and Klein, Alexandra-Maria and Busching, Robert and Elsner, Birgit}, title = {Self-regulation as a resource for coping with developmental challenges during middle childhood and adolescence}, series = {BMC Psychology}, volume = {11}, journal = {BMC Psychology}, number = {1}, publisher = {Springer Nature}, address = {London}, issn = {2050-7283}, doi = {10.1186/s40359-023-01140-3}, pages = {21}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Background Self-regulation (SR) as the ability to regulate one's own physical state, emotions, cognitions, and behavior, is considered to play a pivotal role in the concurrent and subsequent mental and physical health of an individual. Although SR skills encompass numerous sub-facets, previous research has often focused on only one or a few of these sub-facets, and only rarely on adolescence. Therefore, little is known about the development of the sub-facets, their interplay, and their specific contributions to future developmental outcomes, particularly in adolescence. To fill these research gaps, this study aims to prospectively examine (1) the development of SR and (2) their influence on adolescent-specific developmental outcomes in a large community sample. Methods/design Based on previously collected data from the Potsdam Intrapersonal Developmental Risk (PIER) study with three measurement points, the present prospective, longitudinal study aims to add a fourth measurement point (PIERYOUTH). We aim to retain at least 1074 participants now between 16 and 23 years of the initially 1657 participants (6-11 years of age at the first measurement point in 2012/2013; 52.2\% female). The study will continue to follow a multi-method (questionnaires, physiological assessments, performance-based computer tasks), multi-facet (assessing various domains of SR), and multi-rater (self-, parent-, and teacher-report) approach. In addition, a broad range of adolescent-specific developmental outcomes is considered. In doing so, we will cover the development of SR and relevant outcomes over the period of 10 years. In addition, we intend to conduct a fifth measurement point (given prolonged funding) to investigate development up to young adulthood. Discussion With its broad and multimethodological approach, PIERYOUTH aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of the development and role of various SR sub-facets from middle childhood to adolescence. The large sample size and low drop-out rates in the first three measurements points form a sound database for our present prospective research.Trial registration German Clinical Trials Register, registration number DRKS00030847.}, language = {en} } @article{HagemannAbramova2023, author = {Hagemann, Linus and Abramova, Olga}, title = {Sentiment, we-talk and engagement on social media}, series = {Internet research}, volume = {33}, journal = {Internet research}, number = {6}, publisher = {Emeral}, address = {Bingley}, issn = {1066-2243}, doi = {10.1108/INTR-12-2021-0885}, pages = {2058 -- 2085}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Purpose Given inconsistent results in prior studies, this paper applies the dual process theory to investigate what social media messages yield audience engagement during a political event. It tests how affective cues (emotional valence, intensity and collective self-representation) and cognitive cues (insight, causation, certainty and discrepancy) contribute to public engagement. Design/methodology/approach The authors created a dataset of more than three million tweets during the 2020 United States (US) presidential elections. Affective and cognitive cues were assessed via sentiment analysis. The hypotheses were tested in negative binomial regressions. The authors also scrutinized a subsample of far-famed Twitter users. The final dataset, scraping code, preprocessing and analysis are available in an open repository. Findings The authors found the prominence of both affective and cognitive cues. For the overall sample, negativity bias was registered, and the tweet's emotionality was negatively related to engagement. In contrast, in the sub-sample of tweets from famous users, emotionally charged content produced higher engagement. The role of sentiment decreases when the number of followers grows and ultimately becomes insignificant for Twitter participants with many followers. Collective self-representation ("we-talk") is consistently associated with more likes, comments and retweets in the overall sample and subsamples. Originality/value The authors expand the dominating one-sided perspective to social media message processing focused on the peripheral route and hence affective cues. Leaning on the dual process theory, the authors shed light on the effectiveness of both affective (peripheral route) and cognitive (central route) cues on information appeal and dissemination on Twitter during a political event. The popularity of the tweet's author moderates these relationships.}, language = {en} } @article{KrauseGahn2023, author = {Krause, Werner and Gahn, Christina}, title = {Should we include margins of error in public opinion polls?}, series = {European journal of political research}, volume = {Early view}, journal = {European journal of political research}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0304-4130}, doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12633}, pages = {26}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Public opinion polls have become vital and increasingly visible parts of election campaigns. Previous research has frequently demonstrated that polls can influence both citizens' voting intentions and political parties' campaign strategies. However, they are also fraught with uncertainty. Margins of error can reflect (parts of) this uncertainty. This paper investigates how citizens' voting intentions change due to whether polling estimates are presented with or without margins of error. Using a vignette experiment (N=3224), we examine this question based on a real-world example in which different election polls were shown to nationally representative respondents ahead of the 2021 federal election in Germany. We manipulated the display of the margins of error, the interpretation of polls and the closeness of the electoral race. The results indicate that margins of error can influence citizens' voting intentions. This effect is dependent on the actual closeness of the race and additional interpretative guidance provided to voters. More concretely, the results consistently show that margins of error increase citizens' inclination to vote for one of the two largest contesting parties if the polling gap between these parties is small, and an interpretation underlines this closeness. The findings of this study are important for three reasons. First, they help to determine whether margins of error can assist citizens in making more informed (strategic) vote decisions. They shed light on whether depicting opinion-poll uncertainty affects the key features of representative democracy, such as democratic accountability. Second, the results stress the responsibility of the media. The way polls are interpreted and contextualized influences the effect of margins of error on voting behaviour. Third, the findings of this paper underscore the significance of including methodological details when communicating scientific research findings to the broader public.}, language = {en} }