@article{DurandvandenBroekeLeCozannetetal.2022, author = {Durand, Gael and van den Broeke, Michiel R. and Le Cozannet, Goneri and Edwards, Tamsin L. and Holland, Paul R. and Jourdain, Nicolas C. and Marzeion, Ben and Mottram, Ruth and Nicholls, Robert J. and Pattyn, Frank and Paul, Frank and Slangen, Aimee B. A. and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Burgard, Clara and van Calcar, Caroline J. and Barre, Jean-Baptiste and Bataille, Amelie and Chapuis, Anne}, title = {Sea-Level rise: from global perspectives to local services}, series = {Frontiers in Marine Science}, volume = {8}, journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science}, publisher = {Frontiers Media}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {2296-7745}, doi = {10.3389/fmars.2021.709595}, pages = {8}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Coastal areas are highly diverse, ecologically rich, regions of key socio-economic activity, and are particularly sensitive to sea-level change. Over most of the 20th century, global mean sea level has risen mainly due to warming and subsequent expansion of the upper ocean layers as well as the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Over the last three decades, increased mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has also started to contribute significantly to contemporary sea-level rise. The future mass loss of the two ice sheets, which combined represent a sea-level rise potential of similar to 65 m, constitutes the main source of uncertainty in long-term (centennial to millennial) sea-level rise projections. Improved knowledge of the magnitude and rate of future sea-level change is therefore of utmost importance. Moreover, sea level does not change uniformly across the globe and can differ greatly at both regional and local scales. The most appropriate and feasible sea level mitigation and adaptation measures in coastal regions strongly depend on local land use and associated risk aversion. Here, we advocate that addressing the problem of future sea-level rise and its impacts requires (i) bringing together a transdisciplinary scientific community, from climate and cryospheric scientists to coastal impact specialists, and (ii) interacting closely and iteratively with users and local stakeholders to co-design and co-build coastal climate services, including addressing the high-end risks.}, language = {en} } @article{FeldmannLevermann2015, author = {Feldmann, Johannes and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after local destabilization of the Amundsen Basin}, series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, number = {46}, publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0027-8424}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1512482112}, pages = {14191 -- 14196}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest uncertainty in sea-level projections of this and upcoming centuries. Recently, satellite observations and high-resolution simulations have suggested the initiation of an ice-sheet instability in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica, caused by the last decades' enhanced basal ice-shelf melting. Whether this localized destabilization will yield a full discharge of marine ice from West Antarctica, associated with a global sea-level rise of more than 3 m, or whether the ice loss is limited by ice dynamics and topographic features, is unclear. Here we show that in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, a local destabilization causes a complete disintegration of the marine ice in West Antarctica. In our simulations, at 5-km horizontal resolution, the region disequilibrates after 60 y of currently observed melt rates. Thereafter, the marine ice-sheet instability fully unfolds and is not halted by topographic features. In fact, the ice loss in Amundsen Sea sector shifts the catchment's ice divide toward the Filchner-Ronne and Ross ice shelves, which initiates grounding-line retreat there. Our simulations suggest that if a destabilization of Amundsen Sea sector has indeed been initiated, Antarctica will irrevocably contribute at least 3 m to global sea-level rise during the coming centuries to millennia.}, language = {en} } @article{MarzeionLevermann2014, author = {Marzeion, Ben and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Loss of cultural world heritage and currently inhabited places to sea-level rise}, series = {Environmental research letters}, volume = {9}, journal = {Environmental research letters}, number = {3}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034001}, pages = {7}, year = {2014}, language = {en} } @article{StraussKulpLevermann2015, author = {Strauss, Benjamin H. and Kulp, Scott and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level}, series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, number = {44}, publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0027-8424}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1511186112}, pages = {13508 -- 13513}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3-9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185-1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon.}, language = {en} }