@article{ArguellodeSouzaSamprognaMohorGuzmanAriasetal.2023,
  author    = {Arguello de Souza, Felipe Augusto and Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme and Guzman Arias, Diego Alejandro and Sarmento Buarque, Ana Carolina and Taffarello, Denise and Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario},
  title     = {Droughts in S{\~a}o Paulo},
  series = {Urban water journal},
  volume    = {20},
  journal   = {Urban water journal},
  number    = {10},
  publisher = {Taylor \& Francis},
  address   = {London [u.a.]},
  issn      = {1573-062X},
  doi       = {10.1080/1573062X.2022.2047735},
  pages     = {1682 -- 1694},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Literature has suggested that droughts and societies are mutually shaped and, therefore, both require a better understanding of their coevolution on risk reduction and water adaptation. Although the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region drew attention because of the 2013-2015 drought, this was not the first event. This paper revisits this event and the 1985-1986 drought to compare the evolution of drought risk management aspects. Documents and hydrological records are analyzed to evaluate the hazard intensity, preparedness, exposure, vulnerability, responses, and mitigation aspects of both events. Although the hazard intensity and exposure of the latter event were larger than the former one, the policy implementation delay and the dependency of service areas in a single reservoir exposed the region to higher vulnerability. In addition to the structural and non-structural tools implemented just after the events, this work raises the possibility of rainwater reuse for reducing the stress in reservoirs.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{GuzmanAriasSamprognaMohorMendiondo2022,
  author    = {Guzman Arias, Diego Alejandro and Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme and Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario},
  title     = {Multi-driver ensemble to evaluate the water utility business interruption cost induced by hydrological drought risk scenarios in Brazil},
  series = {Urban water journal},
  journal   = {Urban water journal},
  publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group},
  address   = {Abingdon},
  issn      = {1573-062X},
  doi       = {10.1080/1573062X.2022.2058564},
  pages     = {15},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Climate change and increasing water demand in urban environments necessitate planning water utility companies' finances. Traditionally, methods to estimate the direct water utility business interruption costs (WUBIC) caused by droughts have not been clearly established. We propose a multi-driver assessment method. We project the water yield using a hydrological model driven by regional climate models under radiative forcing scenarios. We project water demand under stationary and non-stationary conditions to estimate drought severity and duration, which are linked with pricing policies recently adopted by the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company. The results showed water insecurity. The non-stationary trend imposed larger differences in the drought resilience financial gap, suggesting that the uncertainties of WUBIC derived from demand and climate models are greater than those associated with radiative forcing scenarios. As populations increase, proactively controlling demand is recommended to avoid or minimize reactive policy changes during future drought events, repeating recent financial impacts.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DeusdaraLealSamprognaMohorCuartasetal.2022,
  author    = {Deusdar{\´a}-Leal, Karinne and Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme and Cuartas, Luz Adriana and Seluchi, Marcelo E. and Marengo, Jose A. and Zhang, Rong and Broedel, Elisangela and Amore, Diogo de Jesus and Alval{\´a}, Regina C. S. and Cunha, Ana Paula M. A. and Gon{\c{c}}alves, Jos{\´e} A. C.},
  title     = {Trends and climate elasticity of streamflow in south-eastern Brazil basins},
  series = {Water},
  volume    = {14},
  journal   = {Water},
  number    = {14},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {2073-4441},
  doi       = {10.3390/w14142245},
  pages     = {25},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Trends in streamflow, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) time series, from 1970 to 2017, were assessed for five important hydrological basins in Southeastern Brazil. The concept of elasticity was also used to assess the streamflow sensitivity to changes in climate variables, for annual data and 5-, 10- and 20-year moving averages. Significant negative trends in streamflow and rainfall and significant increasing trend in PET were detected. For annual analysis, elasticity revealed that 1\% decrease in rainfall resulted in 1.21-2.19\% decrease in streamflow, while 1\% increase in PET induced different reductions percentages in streamflow, ranging from 2.45\% to 9.67\%. When both PET and rainfall were computed to calculate the elasticity, results were positive for some basins. Elasticity analysis considering 20-year moving averages revealed that impacts on the streamflow were cumulative: 1\% decrease in rainfall resulted in 1.83-4.75\% decrease in streamflow, while 1\% increase in PET induced 3.47-28.3\% decrease in streamflow. This different temporal response may be associated with the hydrological memory of the basins. Streamflow appears to be more sensitive in less rainy basins. This study provides useful information to support strategic government decisions, especially when the security of water resources and drought mitigation are considered in face of climate change.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SamprognaMohorThiekenKorup2021,
  author    = {Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme and Thieken, Annegret and Korup, Oliver},
  title     = {Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models},
  series = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
  volume    = {21},
  journal   = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
  publisher = {European Geophysical Society},
  address   = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
  issn      = {2195-9269},
  doi       = {10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021},
  pages     = {1599 -- 1614},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Models for the predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly blend data deemed to represent a single flood type and region. Moreover, these approaches largely ignore indicators of preparedness and how predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affected households to explore how Bayesian multilevel models can estimate normalised flood damage stratified by event, region, or flood process type. Multilevel models acknowledge natural groups in the data and allow each group to learn from others. We obtain posterior estimates that differ between flood types, with credibly varying influences of water depth, contamination, duration, implementation of property-level precautionary measures, insurance, and previous flood experience; these influences overlap across most events or regions, however. We infer that the underlying damaging processes of distinct flood types deserve further attention. Each reported flood loss and affected region involved mixed flood types, likely explaining the uncertainty in the coefficients. Our results emphasise the need to consider flood types as an important step towards applying flood loss models elsewhere. We argue that failing to do so may unduly generalise the model and systematically bias loss estimations from empirical data.},
  language  = {en}
}