@article{KononKritikos2018,
  author    = {Konon, Alexander and Kritikos, Alexander},
  title     = {Prediction based on entrepreneurship-prone personality profiles:},
  series = {Small business economics : an international journal},
  volume    = {53},
  journal   = {Small business economics : an international journal},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Dordrecht},
  issn      = {0921-898X},
  doi       = {10.1007/s11187-018-0111-8},
  pages     = {1 -- 20},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {The human personality predicts a wide range of activities and occupational choices-from musical sophistication to entrepreneurial careers. However, which method should be applied if information on personality traits is used for prediction and advice? In psychological research, group profiles are widely employed. In this contribution, we examine the performance of profiles using the example of career prediction and advice, involving a comparison of average trait scores of successful entrepreneurs with the traits of potential entrepreneurs. Based on a simple theoretical model estimated with GSOEP data and analyzed with Monte Carlo methods, we show, for the first time, that the choice of the comparison method matters substantially. We reveal that under certain conditions the performance of average profiles is inferior to the tossing of a coin. Alternative methods, such as directly estimating success probabilities, deliver better performance and are more robust.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{FossenMartin2018,
  author    = {Fossen, Frank M. and Martin, Thorsten},
  title     = {Entrepreneurial dynamics over space and time},
  series = {Regional science and urban economics},
  volume    = {70},
  journal   = {Regional science and urban economics},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0166-0462},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2018.04.004},
  pages     = {204 -- 214},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Entrepreneurship is a regional and persistent phenomenon. We jointly investigate spatial dependence and serial dynamics of new business formation. Using panel data from all 402 German counties for 1996-2011, we estimate dynamic spatial panel data models of start-up activity in the high-tech and manufacturing industries. We consider regions of different sizes and systematically search for the most suitable spatial weights matrices. We find substantial spatial dependence as well as time persistence of start-up activity, especially in the high-tech industry. This suggests that local start-up activity has positive extemal effects and that entrepreneurship policy could play an efficiency-enhancing role.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KononFritschKritikos2018,
  author    = {Konon, Alexander and Fritsch, Michael and Kritikos, Alexander},
  title     = {Business cycles and start-ups across industries},
  series = {Journal of Business Venturing Insights},
  volume    = {33},
  journal   = {Journal of Business Venturing Insights},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0883-9026},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.jbusvent.2018.04.006},
  pages     = {742 -- 761},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {We analyze whether start-up rates in different industries systematically change with business cycle variables. Using a unique data set at the industry level, we mostly find correlations that are consistent with counter-cyclical influences of the business cycle on entries in both innovative and non-innovative industries. Entries into the large-scale industries, including the innovative part of manufacturing, are only influenced by changes in the cyclical component of unemployment, while entries into small-scale industries, like knowledge intensive services, are mostly influenced by changes in the cyclical component of GDP. Thus, our analysis suggests that favorable conditions in terms of high GDP might not be germane for start-ups. Given that both innovative and non-innovative businesses react counter-cyclically in 'regular' recessions, business formation may have a stabilizing effect on the economy.},
  language  = {en}
}