@article{KothaBazzurroPagani2018,
  author    = {Kotha, Sreeram Reddy and Bazzurro, Paolo and Pagani, Marco},
  title     = {Effects of epistemic uncertainty in seismic hazard estimates on building portfolio losses},
  series = {Earthquake spectra : the professional journal of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute},
  volume    = {34},
  journal   = {Earthquake spectra : the professional journal of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Earthquake Engineering Research Institute},
  address   = {Oakland},
  issn      = {8755-2930},
  doi       = {10.1193/020515EQS020M},
  pages     = {217 -- 236},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {In catastrophe risk modeling, a defensible estimation of impact severity and its likelihood of occurrence to a portfolio of assets can only be made through a rigorous treatment of uncertainty and the consideration of multiple alternative models. This approach, however, requires repeating lengthy calculations multiple times. To limit the demand on computational time and resources, a frequent practice in the industry is to estimate the distribution of earthquake-induced portfolio losses using a simulated catalog of events from a single representative mean ground motion hazard model for the region. This simplified approach is faster but may provide biased estimates of the likelihood of occurrence of the large and infrequent losses that drive many risk mitigation decisions. Investigation through case studies of different portfolios of assets located in the San Francisco Bay Region shows the potential for both a bias in the mean loss estimates and an underestimation of their central 70\% interpercentile. We propose a simplified and computationally practical approach that reduces the bias in the mean portfolio loss estimates. This approach does not improve the estimate of the interpercentile range, however, a quantity of no direct practical use.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ChenWeatherillPaganietal.2018,
  author    = {Chen, Yen-Shin and Weatherill, Graeme and Pagani, Marco and Cotton, Fabrice},
  title     = {A transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard assessment},
  series = {Geophysical journal international},
  volume    = {213},
  journal   = {Geophysical journal international},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0956-540X},
  doi       = {10.1093/gji/ggy005},
  pages     = {1263 -- 1280},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {A key concept that is common to many assumptions inherent within seismic hazard assessment is that of tectonic similarity. This recognizes that certain regions of the globe may display similar geophysical characteristics, such as in the attenuation of seismic waves, the magnitude scaling properties of seismogenic sources or the seismic coupling of the lithosphere. Previous attempts at tectonic regionalization, particularly within a seismic hazard assessment context, have often been based on expert judgements; in most of these cases, the process for delineating tectonic regions is neither reproducible nor consistent from location to location. In this work, the regionalization process is implemented in a scheme that is reproducible, comprehensible from a geophysical rationale, and revisable when new relevant data are published. A spatial classification-scheme is developed based on fuzzy logic, enabling the quantification of concepts that are approximate rather than precise. Using the proposed methodology, we obtain a transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard applications as well as the subjective probabilities (e.g. degree of being active/degree of being cratonic) that indicate the degree to which a site belongs in a tectonic category.},
  language  = {en}
}