@article{WillnerOttoLevermann2018,
  author    = {Willner, Sven N. and Otto, Christian and Levermann, Anders},
  title     = {Global economic response to river floods},
  series = {Nature climate change},
  volume    = {8},
  journal   = {Nature climate change},
  number    = {7},
  publisher = {Nature Publ. Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {1758-678X},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41558-018-0173-2},
  pages     = {594 -- 598},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Increasing Earth's surface air temperature yields an intensification of its hydrological cycle. As a consequence, the risk of river floods will increase regionally within the next two decades due to the atmospheric warming caused by past anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The direct economic losses caused by these floods can yield regionally heterogeneous losses and gains by propagation within the global trade and supply network. Here we show that, in the absence of large-scale structural adaptation, the total economic losses due to fluvial floods will increase in the next 20 years globally by 17\% despite partial compensation through market adjustment within the global trade network. China will suffer the strongest direct losses, with an increase of 82\%. The United States is mostly affected indirectly through its trade relations. By contrast to the United States, recent intensification of the trade relations with China leaves the European Union better prepared for the import of production losses in the future.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WillnerLevermannZhaoetal.2018,
  author    = {Willner, Sven N. and Levermann, Anders and Zhao, Fang and Frieler, Katja},
  title     = {Adaptation required to preserve future high-end river flood risk at present levels},
  series = {Science Advances},
  volume    = {4},
  journal   = {Science Advances},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {2375-2548},
  doi       = {10.1126/sciadv.aao1914},
  pages     = {8},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Earth's surface temperature will continue to rise for another 20 to 30 years even with the strongest carbon emission reduction currently considered. The associated changes in rainfall patterns can result in an increased flood risk worldwide. We compute the required increase in flood protection to keep high-end fluvial flood risk at present levels. The analysis is carried out worldwide for subnational administrative units. Most of the United States, Central Europe, and Northeast and West Africa, as well as large parts of India and Indonesia, require the strongest adaptation effort. More than half of the United States needs to at least double their protection within the next two decades. Thus, the need for adaptation to increased river flood is a global problem affecting industrialized regions as much as developing countries.},
  language  = {en}
}