@article{AertsBotzenClarkeetal.2018,
  author    = {Aerts, J. C. J. H. and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Clarke, K. C. and Cutter, S. L. and Hall, J. W. and Merz, Bruno and Michel-Kerjan, E. and Mysiak, J. and Surminski, Swenja and Kunreuther, H.},
  title     = {Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment},
  series = {Nature climate change},
  volume    = {8},
  journal   = {Nature climate change},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Nature Publ. Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {1758-678X},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41558-018-0085-1},
  pages     = {193 -- 199},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BubeckBotzenLaudanetal.2018,
  author    = {Bubeck, Philip and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Laudan, Jonas and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. and Thieken, Annegret},
  title     = {Insights into flood-coping appraisals of protection motivation theory},
  series = {Risk analysis},
  volume    = {38},
  journal   = {Risk analysis},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0272-4332},
  doi       = {10.1111/risa.12938},
  pages     = {1239 -- 1257},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk-reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was found to be a better predictor of protective intentions and behavior, little is known about the factors that influence individuals' coping appraisals of natural hazards. More insight into flood-coping appraisals of PMT, therefore, are needed to better understand the decision-making process of individuals and to develop effective risk communication strategies. This study presents the results of two surveys among more than 1,600 flood-prone households in Germany and France. Five hypotheses were tested using multivariate statistics regarding factors related to flood-coping appraisals, which were derived from the PMT framework, related literature, and the literature on social vulnerability. We found that socioeconomic characteristics alone are not sufficient to explain flood-coping appraisals. Particularly, observational learning from the social environment, such as friends and neighbors, is positively related to flood-coping appraisals. This suggests that social norms and networks play an important role in flood-preparedness decisions. Providing risk and coping information can also have a positive effect. Given the strong positive influence of the social environment on flood-coping appraisals, future research should investigate how risk communication can be enhanced by making use of the observed social norms and network effects.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{UnterbergerHudsonBotzenetal.2018,
  author    = {Unterberger, Christian and Hudson, Paul and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Schroeer, Katharina and Steininger, Karl W.},
  title     = {Future public sector flood risk and risk sharing arrangements},
  series = {Ecological economics},
  volume    = {156},
  journal   = {Ecological economics},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0921-8009},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.09.019},
  pages     = {153 -- 163},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Climate change, along with socio-economic development, will increase the economic impacts of floods. While the factors that influence flood risk to private property have been extensively studied, the risk that natural disasters pose to public infrastructure and the resulting implications on public sector budgets, have received less attention. We address this gap by developing a two-staged model framework, which first assesses the flood risk to public infrastructure in Austria. Combining exposure and vulnerability information at the building level with inundation maps, we project an increase in riverine flood damage, which progressively burdens public budgets. Second, the risk estimates are integrated into an insurance model, which analyzes three different compensation arrangements in terms of the monetary burden they place on future governments' budgets and the respective volatility of payments. Formalized insurance compensation arrangements offer incentives for risk reduction measures, which lower the burden on public budgets by reducing the vulnerability of buildings that are exposed to flooding. They also significantly reduce the volatility of payments and thereby improve the predictability of flood damage expenditures. These features indicate that more formalized insurance arrangements are an improvement over the purely public compensation arrangement currently in place in Austria.},
  language  = {en}
}