@article{KarpTallisSachseetal.2015,
  author    = {Karp, Daniel S. and Tallis, Heather and Sachse, Rene and Halpern, Ben and Thonicke, Kirsten and Cramer, Wolfgang and Mooney, Harold and Polasky, Stephen and Tietjen, Britta and Waha, Katharina and Walt, Ariane and Wolny, Stacie},
  title     = {National indicators for observing ecosystem service change},
  series = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions},
  volume    = {35},
  journal   = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0959-3780},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.07.014},
  pages     = {12 -- 21},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Earth's life-support systems are in rapid decline, yet we have few metrics or indicators with which to track these changes. The world's governments are calling for biodiversity and ecosystem-service monitoring to guide and evaluate international conservation policy as well as to incorporate natural capital into their national accounts. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) has been tasked with setting up this monitoring system. Here we explore the immediate feasibility of creating a global ecosystem-service monitoring platform under the GEO BON framework through combining data from national statistics, global vegetation models, and production function models. We found that nine ecosystem services could be annually reported at a national scale in the short term: carbon sequestration, water supply for hydropower, and non-fisheries marine products, crop, livestock, game meat, fisheries, mariculture, and timber production. Reported changes in service delivery over time reflected ecological shocks (e.g., droughts and disease outbreaks), highlighting the immediate utility of this monitoring system. Our work also identified three opportunities for creating a more comprehensive monitoring system. First, investing in input data for ecological process models (e.g., global land-use maps) would allow many more regulating services to be monitored. Currently, only 1 of 9 services that can be reported is a regulating service. Second, household surveys and censuses could help evaluate how nature affects people and provides non-monetary benefits. Finally, to forecast the sustainability of service delivery, research efforts could focus on calculating the total remaining biophysical stocks of provisioning services. Regardless, we demonstrated that a preliminary ecosystem-service monitoring platform is immediately feasible. With sufficient international investment, the platform could evolve further into a much-needed system to track changes in our planet's life-support systems. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RolinskiRammigWalzetal.2015,
  author    = {Rolinski, Susanne and Rammig, A. and Walz, Ariane and von Bloh, Werner and van Oijen, M. and Thonicke, Kirsten},
  title     = {A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes: the ecosystem perspective},
  series = {Biogeosciences},
  volume    = {12},
  journal   = {Biogeosciences},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1726-4170},
  doi       = {10.5194/bg-12-1813-2015},
  pages     = {1813 -- 1831},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model- based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.},
  language  = {en}
}