@article{EsfahaniVogelCottonetal.2021, author = {Esfahani, Reza Dokht Dolatabadi and Vogel, Kristin and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre and Ohrnberger, Matthias and Scherbaum, Frank and Kriegerowski, Marius}, title = {Exploring the dimensionality of ground-motion data by applying autoencoder techniques}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America : BSSA}, volume = {111}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America : BSSA}, number = {3}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {El Cerito, Calif.}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120200285}, pages = {1563 -- 1576}, year = {2021}, abstract = {In this article, we address the question of how observed ground-motion data can most effectively be modeled for engineering seismological purposes. Toward this goal, we use a data-driven method, based on a deep-learning autoencoder with a variable number of nodes in the bottleneck layer, to determine how many parameters are needed to reconstruct synthetic and observed ground-motion data in terms of their median values and scatter. The reconstruction error as a function of the number of nodes in the bottleneck is used as an indicator of the underlying dimensionality of ground-motion data, that is, the minimum number of predictor variables needed in a ground-motion model. Two synthetic and one observed datasets are studied to prove the performance of the proposed method. We find that mapping ground-motion data to a 2D manifold primarily captures magnitude and distance information and is suited for an approximate data reconstruction. The data reconstruction improves with an increasing number of bottleneck nodes of up to three and four, but it saturates if more nodes are added to the bottleneck.}, language = {en} } @article{DurandBentzKwiateketal.2020, author = {Durand, Virginie and Bentz, Stephan and Kwiatek, Grzegorz and Dresen, Georg and Wollin, Christopher and Heidbach, Oliver and Martinez-Garzon, Patricia and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre and Nurlu, Murat and Bohnhoff, Marco}, title = {A two-scale preparation phase preceded an M-w 5.8 earthquake in the sea of marmara offshore Istanbul, Turkey}, series = {Seismological research letters}, volume = {91}, journal = {Seismological research letters}, number = {6}, address = {Boulder}, issn = {0895-0695}, doi = {10.1785/0220200110}, pages = {3139 -- 3147}, year = {2020}, abstract = {We analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity during a sequence of moderate (an M-w 4.7 foreshock and M-w 5.8 mainshock) earthquakes occurring in September 2019 at the transition between a creeping and a locked segment of the North Anatolian fault in the central Sea of Marmara, northwest Turkey. To investigate in detail the seismicity evolution, we apply a matched-filter technique to continuous waveforms, thus reducing the magnitude threshold for detection. Sequences of foreshocks preceding the two largest events are clearly seen, exhibiting two different behaviors: a long-term activation of the seismicity along the entire fault segment and a short-term concentration around the epicenters of the large events. We suggest a two-scale preparation phase, with aseismic slip preparing the mainshock final rupture a few days before, and a cascade mechanism leading to the nucleation of the mainshock. Thus, our study shows a combination of seismic and aseismic slip during the foreshock sequence changing the strength of the fault, bringing it closer to failure.}, language = {en} } @article{vonSpechtCotton2020, author = {von Specht, Sebastian and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre}, title = {A link between machine learning and optimization in ground-motion model development}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, volume = {110}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, number = {6}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120190133}, pages = {2777 -- 2800}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The steady increase of ground-motion data not only allows new possibilities but also comes with new challenges in the development of ground-motion models (GMMs). Data classification techniques (e.g., cluster analysis) do not only produce deterministic classifications but also probabilistic classifications (e.g., probabilities for each datum to belong to a given class or cluster). One challenge is the integration of such continuous classification in regressions for GMM development such as the widely used mixed-effects model. We address this issue by introducing an extension of the mixed-effects model to incorporate data weighting. The parameter estimation of the mixed-effects model, that is, fixed-effects coefficients of the GMMs and the random-effects variances, are based on the weighted likelihood function, which also provides analytic uncertainty estimates. The data weighting permits for earthquake classification beyond the classical, expert-driven, binary classification based, for example, on event depth, distance to trench, style of faulting, and fault dip angle. We apply Angular Classification with Expectation-maximization, an algorithm to identify clusters of nodal planes from focal mechanisms to differentiate between, for example, interface- and intraslab-type events. Classification is continuous, that is, no event belongs completely to one class, which is taken into account in the ground-motion modeling. The theoretical framework described in this article allows for a fully automatic calibration of ground-motion models using large databases with automated classification and processing of earthquake and ground-motion data. As an example, we developed a GMM on the basis of the GMM by Montalva et al. (2017) with data from the strong-motion flat file of Bastias and Montalva (2016) with similar to 2400 records from 319 events in the Chilean subduction zone. Our GMM with the data-driven classification is comparable to the expert-classification-based model. Furthermore, the model shows temporal variations of the between-event residuals before and after large earthquakes in the region.}, language = {en} } @article{PilzCottonZhu2021, author = {Pilz, Marco and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre and Zhu, Chuanbin}, title = {How much are sites affected by 2-D and 3-D site effects?}, series = {Geophysical journal international}, volume = {228}, journal = {Geophysical journal international}, number = {3}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0956-540X}, doi = {10.1093/gji/ggab454}, pages = {1992 -- 2004}, year = {2021}, abstract = {1-D site response analysis dominates earthquake engineering practice, while local 2-D/3-D models are often required at sites where the site response is complex. For such sites, the 1-D representation of the soil column can account neither for topographic effects or dipping layers nor for locally generated horizontally propagating surface waves. It then remains a crucial task to identify whether the site response can be modelled sufficiently precisely by 1-D analysis. In this study we develop a method to classify sites according to their 1-D or 2-D/3-D nature. This classification scheme is based on the analysis of surface earthquake recordings and the evaluation of the variability and similarity of the horizontal Fourier spectra. The taxonomy is focused on capturing significant directional dependencies and interevent variabilities indicating a more probable 2-D/3-D structure around the site causing the ground motion to be more variable. While no significant correlation of the 1-D/3-D site index with environmental parameters and site proxies seems to exist, a reduction in the within-site (single-station) variability is found. The reduction is largest (up to 20 per cent) for purely 1-D sites. Although the taxonomy system is developed using surface stations of the KiK-net network in Japan as considerable additional information is available, it can also be applied to any (non-downhole array) site.}, language = {en} } @article{ZhuCottonPilz2020, author = {Zhu, Chuanbin and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre and Pilz, Marco}, title = {Detecting site resonant frequency using HVSR}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America : BSSA}, volume = {110}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America : BSSA}, number = {2}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {El Cerito, Calif.}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120190186}, pages = {427 -- 440}, year = {2020}, abstract = {In this investigation, we examine the uncertainties using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) technique on earthquake recordings to detect site resonant frequencies at 207 KiK-net sites. Our results show that the scenario dependence of response (pseudospectral acceleration) spectral ratio could bias the estimates of resonant frequencies for sites having multiple significant peaks with comparable amplitudes. Thus, the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) should be preferred in computing HVSR. For more than 80\% of the investigated sites, the first peak (in the frequency domain) on the average HVSR curve over multiple sites coincides with the highest peak. However, for sites with multiple peaks, the highest peak frequency (f(p)) is less susceptible to the selection criteria of significant peaks and the extent of smoothing to spectrum than the first peak frequency (f(0)). Meanwhile, in comparison to the surface-to-borehole spectral ratio, f(0) tends to underestimate the predominant frequency (at which the largest amplification occurs) more than f(p). In addition, in terms of characterizing linear site response, f(p) shows a better overall performance than f(0). Based on these findings, we thus recommend that seismic network operators provide f(p) on the average HVSRFAS curve as a priority, ideally together with the average HVSRFAS curve in site characterization.}, language = {en} } @article{WeatherillCotton2020, author = {Weatherill, Graeme and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre}, title = {A ground motion logic tree for seismic hazard analysis in the stable cratonic region of Europe}, series = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, volume = {18}, journal = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, number = {14}, publisher = {Springer Science + Business Media B.V.}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1570-761X}, doi = {10.1007/s10518-020-00940-x}, pages = {6119 -- 6148}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Regions of low seismicity present a particular challenge for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis when identifying suitable ground motion models (GMMs) and quantifying their epistemic uncertainty. The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model adopts a scaled backbone approach to characterise this uncertainty for shallow seismicity in Europe, incorporating region-to-region source and attenuation variability based on European strong motion data. This approach, however, may not be suited to stable cratonic region of northeastern Europe (encompassing Finland, Sweden and the Baltic countries), where exploration of various global geophysical datasets reveals that its crustal properties are distinctly different from the rest of Europe, and are instead more closely represented by those of the Central and Eastern United States. Building upon the suite of models developed by the recent NGA East project, we construct a new scaled backbone ground motion model and calibrate its corresponding epistemic uncertainties. The resulting logic tree is shown to provide comparable hazard outcomes to the epistemic uncertainty modelling strategy adopted for the Eastern United States, despite the different approaches taken. Comparison with previous GMM selections for northeastern Europe, however, highlights key differences in short period accelerations resulting from new assumptions regarding the characteristics of the reference rock and its influence on site amplification.}, language = {en} } @article{ZhuPilzCotton2020, author = {Zhu, Chuanbin and Pilz, Marco and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre}, title = {Evaluation of a novel application of earthquake HVSR in site-specific amplification estimation}, series = {Soil dynamics and earthquake engineering}, volume = {139}, journal = {Soil dynamics and earthquake engineering}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0267-7261}, doi = {10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106301}, pages = {14}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Ground response analyses (GRA) model the vertical propagations of SH waves through flat-layered media (1DSH) and are widely carried out to evaluate local site effects in practice. Horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) technique is a cost-effective approach to extract certain site-specific information, e.g., site fundamental frequency (f(0)), but HVSR values cannot be directly used to approximate the levels of S-wave amplifications. Motivated by the work of Kawase et al. (2019), we propose a procedure to correct earthquake HVSR amplitudes for direct amplification estimations. The empirical correction compensates HVSR by generic vertical amplification spectra categorized by the vertical fundamental frequency (f(0v)) via kappa-means clustering. In this investigation, we evaluate the effectiveness of the corrected HVSR in approximating observed linear amplifications in comparison with 1DSH modellings. We select a total of 90 KiK-net (Kiban Kyoshin network) surface-downhole sites which are found to have no velocity contrasts below their boreholes and thus of which surface-to-borehole spectral ratios (SBSRs) can be taken as their empirical transfer functions (ETFs). 1DSH-based theoretical transfer functions (TTFs) are computed in the linear domain considering uncertainties in Vs profiles through randomizations. Five goodness-of-fit metrics are adopted to gauge the closeness between observed (ETF) and predicted (i.e., TTF and corrected HVSR) amplifications in both amplitude and spectral shape over frequencies from f(0) to 25 Hz. We find that the empirical correction to HVSR is highly effective and achieves a "good match" in both spectral shape and amplitude at the majority of the 90 KiK-net sites, as opposed to less than one-third for the 1DSH modelling. In addition, the empirical correction does not require a velocity model, which GRAs require, and thus has great potentials in seismic hazard assessments.}, language = {en} } @article{PilzCottonRazafindrakotoetal.2020, author = {Pilz, Marco and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre and Razafindrakoto, Hoby Njara Tendrisoa and Weatherill, Graeme and Spies, Thomas}, title = {Regional broad-band ground-shaking modelling over extended and thick sedimentary basins}, series = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, volume = {19}, journal = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, number = {2}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1570-761X}, doi = {10.1007/s10518-020-01004-w}, pages = {581 -- 603}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The simulation of broad-band (0.1 to 10 + Hz) ground-shaking over deep and spatially extended sedimentary basins at regional scales is challenging. We evaluate the ground-shaking of a potential M 6.5 earthquake in the southern Lower Rhine Embayment, one of the most important areas of earthquake recurrence north of the Alps, close to the city of Cologne in Germany. In a first step, information from geological investigations, seismic experiments and boreholes is combined for deriving a harmonized 3D velocity and attenuation model of the sedimentary layers. Three alternative approaches are then applied and compared to evaluate the impact of the sedimentary cover on ground-motion amplification. The first approach builds on existing response spectra ground-motion models whose amplification factors empirically take into account the influence of the sedimentary layers through a standard parameterization. In the second approach, site-specific 1D amplification functions are computed from the 3D basin model. Using a random vibration theory approach, we adjust the empirical response spectra predicted for soft rock conditions by local site amplification factors: amplifications and associated ground-motions are predicted both in the Fourier and in the response spectra domain. In the third approach, hybrid physics-based ground-motion simulations are used to predict time histories for soft rock conditions which are subsequently modified using the 1D site-specific amplification functions computed in method 2. For large distances and at short periods, the differences between the three approaches become less notable due to the significant attenuation of the sedimentary layers. At intermediate and long periods, generic empirical ground-motion models provide lower levels of amplification from sedimentary soils compared to methods taking into account site-specific 1D amplification functions. In the near-source region, hybrid physics-based ground-motions models illustrate the potentially large variability of ground-motion due to finite source effects.}, language = {en} } @article{ZiebarthvonSpechtHeidbachetal.2020, author = {Ziebarth, Malte J. and von Specht, Sebastian and Heidbach, Oliver and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre and Anderson, John G.}, title = {Applying conservation of energy to estimate earthquake frequencies from strain rates and stresses}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, volume = {125}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, number = {8}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9313}, doi = {10.1029/2020JB020186}, pages = {25}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Estimating earthquake occurrence rates from the accumulation rate of seismic moment is an established tool of seismic hazard analysis. We propose an alternative, fault-agnostic approach based on the conservation of energy: the Energy-Conserving Seismicity Framework (ENCOS). Working in energy space has the advantage that the radiated energy is a better predictor of the damage potential of earthquake waves than the seismic moment release. In a region, ENCOS balances the stationary power available to cause earthquakes with the long-term seismic energy release represented by the energy-frequency distribution's first moment. Accumulation and release are connected through the average seismic efficiency, by which we mean the fraction of released energy that is converted into seismic waves. Besides measuring earthquakes in energy, ENCOS differs from moment balance essentially in that the energy accumulation rate depends on the total stress in addition to the strain rate tensor. To validate ENCOS, we exemplarily model the energy-frequency distribution around Southern California. We estimate the energy accumulation rate due to tectonic loading assuming poroelasticity and hydrostasis. Using data from the World Stress Map and assuming the frictional limit to estimate the stress tensor, we obtain a power of 0.8 GW. The uncertainty range, 0.3-2.0GW, originates mainly from the thickness of the seismogenic crust, the friction coefficient on preexisting faults, and models of Global Positioning System (GPS) derived strain rates. Based on a Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution, this power can be distributed over a range of energies consistent with historical earthquake rates and reasonable bounds on the seismic efficiency.}, language = {en} } @article{MayorBoraCotton2018, author = {Mayor, Jessie and Bora, Sanjay Singh and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre}, title = {Capturing regional variations of hard-rock κ0 from coda analysis}, series = {The bulletin of the Seismological Society of America : BSSA}, volume = {108}, journal = {The bulletin of the Seismological Society of America : BSSA}, number = {1}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120170153}, pages = {399 -- 408}, year = {2018}, abstract = {We propose an alternative procedure for the capture of the hard-rock regional kappa (⁠κ0ref⁠). In our approach, we make use of a potential link between the well-known κ parameter and the properties of coda waves. In our analysis, we consider near-distance records of four crustal earthquakes of local magnitude 3.7-4.9 that occurred in four regions of France in different geological contexts: the crystalline axial chain of Pyrenees to the southwest, the large sedimentary basin to the southeast, the Alpine range to the east, and the extensional Rhine graben to the northeast. Each earthquake has been recorded at a pair of nearby soft- and hard-rock station sites. The high-frequency (16-32 Hz) spectral amplitudes of the coda window (carefully selected on the time series of the accelerograms) confirm an exponential decrease, which we quantify by κAHcoda and call "kappa of coda." It is found that κAHcoda is independent of the soil type but shows significant regional variations. κ measurements (Anderson and Hough, 1984) over the coda window (⁠κAHcoda⁠) and full time series (⁠κAH⁠) show strong correlation at hard-rock sites. This suggests that κAHcoda can provide a new proxy to estimate the regional hard rock κ0ref (Ktenidou et al., 2015). Theoretical analysis is also presented to relate the regional κAHcoda and coda quality factor Qc⁠, which quantifies the average attenuation properties of the crust (both scattering and absorption). It allows interpreting κAHcoda as the time spent by the waves in the medium, weighted by its attenuation properties. This theoretical analysis also shows that the classical κ measurement should be frequency dependent; this was confirmed by the spectra of the observed records.}, language = {en} }