TY  - UNPD
A1  - Angenendt, Steffen
A1  - Koch, Anne
A1  - Tjaden, Jasper
T1  - Predicting irregular migration
T2  - high hopes, meagre results
N2  - German and European migration policy operates in permanent crisis mode. Sudden increases in irregular immigration create a sense of loss of control, which is instrumentalised by populist forces. This has generated great interest in quantitative migration predictions. High expectations are placed in the AI-based tools currently under devel­op­ment for forecasting irregular migration. The potential applications of these tools are manifold. They range from managing and strengthening the EU's reception capacity and border protections to configuring humanitarian aid provision and longer-term planning of development programmes. There is a significant gap between the expectations placed in the new instruments and their practical utility. Technical limits exist, medium-term forecasts are methodologically implausible, and channels for feeding the results into political decision-making processes are lacking. The great demand for predictions is driven by the political functions of migration prediction, which include its uses in political communication, funding acquisition and legitimisation of political decisions. Investment in the quality of the underlying data will be more productive than developing a succession of new prediction tools. Funding for applications in emergency relief and development cooperation should be prioritised. Crisis early warning and risk analysis should also be strengthened and their networking improved.
KW  - Migration
KW  - Migrationspolitik
KW  - Wanderungsprognosen
KW  - Vorhersage
KW  - Vorausschau
KW  - displacement forecasting
KW  - Krisenfrüherkennung
KW  - Risikoanalyse
KW  - Künstliche Intelligenz
KW  - maschinelles Lernen
KW  - Agentenbasierte Modellierung
KW  - predicting irregular migration
KW  - forecast
KW  - quantitative migration prediction
KW  - UNHCR
KW  - IOM
KW  - Frontex Risk Analysis Network (FRAN)
KW  - Common Integrated Risk Analysis Model (CIRAM)
KW  - Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC)
KW  - Frontex
KW  - Pact on Migration and Asylum
Y1  - 2023
UR  - https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/65018
SN  - 2747-5123
SN  - 1863-1053
VL  - 11
PB  - Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
CY  - Berlin
ER  -