TY  - JOUR
A1  - Degen, Denise
A1  - Spooner, Cameron
A1  - Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena
A1  - Cacace, Mauro
T1  - How biased are our models?
T2  - Geoscientific model development : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
N2  - Geophysical process simulations play a crucial role in the understanding of the subsurface. This understanding is required to provide, for instance, clean energy sources such as geothermal energy. However, the calibration and validation of the physical models heavily rely on state measurements such as temperature. In this work, we demonstrate that focusing analyses purely on measurements introduces a high bias. This is illustrated through global sensitivity studies. The extensive exploration of the parameter space becomes feasible through the construction of suitable surrogate models via the reduced basis method, where the bias is found to result from very unequal data distribution. We propose schemes to compensate for parts of this bias. However, the bias cannot be entirely compensated. Therefore, we demonstrate the consequences of this bias with the example of a model calibration.
Y1  - 2021
UR  - https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/63332
SN  - 1991-959X
SN  - 1991-9603
VL  - 14
IS  - 11
SP  - 7133
EP  - 7153
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  -