TY  - JOUR
A1  - Dolgener, Nicola
A1  - Freudenberger, L.
A1  - Schneeweiss, N.
A1  - Ibisch, P. L.
A1  - Tiedemann, Ralph
T1  - Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany
T2  - Regional environmental change
N2  - Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.
KW  - Brandenburg
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Distribution modelling
KW  - Endangered species
KW  - Fire-bellied toad
KW  - Maxent
Y1  - 2014
UR  - https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/37827
SN  - 1436-3798
SN  - 1436-378X
VL  - 14
IS  - 3
SP  - 1063
EP  - 1072
PB  - Springer
CY  - Heidelberg
ER  -