TY  - JOUR
A1  - Zöller, Gert
A1  - Holschneider, Matthias
T1  - The Maximum Possible and the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude for Production-Induced Earthquakes at the Gas Field in Groningen, The Netherlands
T2  - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
N2  - The Groningen gas field serves as a natural laboratory for production-induced earthquakes, because no earthquakes were observed before the beginning of gas production. Increasing gas production rates resulted in growing earthquake activity and eventually in the occurrence of the 2012M(w) 3.6 Huizinge earthquake. At least since this event, a detailed seismic hazard and risk assessment including estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude is considered to be necessary to decide on the future gas production. In this short note, we first apply state-of-the-art methods of mathematical statistics to derive confidence intervals for the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max). Second, we calculate the maximum expected magnitude M-T in the time between 2016 and 2024 for three assumed gas-production scenarios. Using broadly accepted physical assumptions and 90% confidence level, we suggest a value of m(max) 4.4, whereas M-T varies between 3.9 and 4.3, depending on the production scenario.
Y1  - 2016
UR  - https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/44706
SN  - 0037-1106
SN  - 1943-3573
VL  - 106
SP  - 2917
EP  - 2921
PB  - Seismological Society of America
CY  - Albany
ER  -