TY  - GEN
A1  - Schewe, Jacob
A1  - Levermann, Anders
T1  - Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming
T2  - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
N2  - Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300% over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic-thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.
T3  - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 630 
KW  - moisture-advection feedback
KW  - abrupt monsoon transitions
KW  - West African monsoon
KW  - CMIP5
KW  - Holocene
KW  - climate
KW  - ocean
KW  - jet
Y1  - 2019
UR  - https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/41911
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419114
IS  - 630
SP  - 495
EP  - 505
ER  -