TY  - JOUR
A1  - Kotha, Sreeram Reddy
A1  - Bindi, Dino
A1  - Cotton, Fabrice
T1  - From Ergodic to Region- and Site-Specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment: Method Development and Application at European and Middle Eastern Sites
T2  - Earthquake spectra : the professional journal of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
N2  - The increasing numbers of recordings at individual sites allows quantification of empirical linear site-response adjustment factors (delta S2S(s)) from the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) residuals. The delta S2S(s) are then used to linearly scale the ergodic GMPE predictions to obtain site-specific ground motion predictions in a partially non-ergodic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). To address key statistical and conceptual issues in the current practice, we introduce a novel empirical region-and site-specific PSHA methodology wherein, (1) site-to-site variability (phi(S2S)) is first estimated as a random-variance in a mixed-effects GMPE regression, (2) delta S2S(s) at new sites with strong motion are estimated using the a priori phi(S2S), and (3) the GMPE site-specific single-site aleatory variability sigma(ss,s) is replaced with a generic site-corrected aleatory variability sigma(0). Comparison of region- and site-specific hazard curves from our method against the traditional ergodic estimates at 225 sites in Europe and Middle East shows an approximate 50% difference in predicted ground motions over a range of hazard levels-a strong motivation to increase seismological monitoring of critical facilities and enrich regional ground motion data sets.
Y1  - 2017
UR  - https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/46196
SN  - 8755-2930
SN  - 1944-8201
VL  - 33
SP  - 1433
EP  - 1453
PB  - Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
CY  - Oakland
ER  -