TY - JOUR A1 - Sitz, Andre A1 - Schwarz, Udo A1 - Kurths, Jürgen A1 - Voss, Henning U. T1 - Estimation of parameters and unobserved components for nonlinear systems from noisy time series N2 - We study the problem of simultaneous estimation of parameters and unobserved states from noisy data of nonlinear time-continuous systems, including the case of additive stochastic forcing. We propose a solution by adapting the recently developed statistical method of unscented Kalman filtering to this problem. Due to its recursive and derivative-free structure, this method minimizes the cost function in a computationally efficient and robust way. It is found that parameters as well as unobserved components can be estimated with high accuracy, including confidence bands, from heavily noise-corrupted data. Y1 - 2002 UR - https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/16964 UR - http://pre.aps.org/ ER -