TY  - JOUR
A1  - Zöller, Gert
T1  - Convergence of the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes - maybe in 200 years
T2  - Geophysical research letters
N2  - I study the ability to estimate the tail of the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes. While power-law scaling for small earthquakes is accepted by support of data, the tail remains speculative. In a recent study, Bell et al. (2013) claim that the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes converges to a tapered Pareto distribution. I show that this finding results from data fitting errors, namely from the biased maximum likelihood estimation of the corner magnitude theta in strongly undersampled models. In particular, the estimation of theta depends solely on the few largest events in the catalog. Taking this into account, I compare various state-of-the-art models for the global frequency-magnitude distribution. After discarding undersampled models, the remaining ones, including the unbounded Gutenberg-Richter distribution, perform all equally well and are, therefore, indistinguishable. Convergence to a specific distribution, if it ever takes place, requires about 200 years homogeneous recording of global seismicity, at least.
KW  - statistical seismology
Y1  - 2013
UR  - https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/34806
SN  - 0094-8276
SN  - 1944-8007
VL  - 40
IS  - 15
SP  - 3873
EP  - 3877
PB  - American Geophysical Union
CY  - Washington
ER  -