TY  - JOUR
A1  - Beauval, Céline
A1  - Hainzl, Sebastian
A1  - Scherbaum, Frank
T1  - Probabilistic seismic hazard estimation in low-seismicity regions considering non-Poissonian seismic occurrence
N2  - In low-seismicity regions, such as France or Germany, the estimation of probabilistic seismic hazard must cope with the difficult identification of active faults and with the low amount of seismic data available. Since the probabilistic hazard method was initiated, most studies assume a Poissonian occurrence of earthquakes. Here we propose a method that enables the inclusion of time and space dependences between earthquakes into the probabilistic estimation of hazard. Combining the seismicity model Epidemic Type Aftershocks-Sequence (ETAS) with a Monte Carlo technique, aftershocks are naturally accounted for in the hazard determination. The method is applied to the Pyrenees region in Southern France. The impact on hazard of declustering and of the usual assumption that earthquakes occur according to a Poisson process is quantified, showing that aftershocks contribute on average less than 5 per cent to the probabilistic hazard, with an upper bound around 18 per cent
Y1  - 2006
UR  - https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/11999
UR  - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1365-246X
SN  - 0956-540X
ER  -