TY  - JOUR
A1  - Zöller, Gert
A1  - Hainzl, Sebastian
A1  - Tilmann, Frederik
A1  - Woith, Heiko
A1  - Dahm, Torsten
T1  - Comment on: Wikelski, Martin; Müller, Uschi; Scocco, Paola; Catorci, Andrea; Desinov, Lev V.; Belyaev, Mikhail Y.; Keim, Daniel A.; Pohlmeier, Winfried; Fechteler, Gerhard; Mai, Martin P. : Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring. - Ethology. - 126 (2020), 9. - S. 931 - 941. -ISSN 0179-1613. - eISSN 1439-0310. - doi 10.1111/eth.13078
T2  - Ethology
N2  - Based on an analysis of continuous monitoring of farm animal behavior in the region of the 2016 M6.6 Norcia earthquake in Italy, Wikelski et al., 2020; (Seismol Res Lett, 89, 2020, 1238) conclude that animal activity can be anticipated with subsequent seismic activity and that this finding might help to design a "short-term earthquake forecasting method." We show that this result is based on an incomplete analysis and misleading interpretations. Applying state-of-the-art methods of statistics, we demonstrate that the proposed anticipatory patterns cannot be distinguished from random patterns, and consequently, the observed anomalies in animal activity do not have any forecasting power.
KW  - animal behavior
KW  - earthquake precursor
KW  - error diagram
KW  - prediction
KW  - randomness
KW  - statistics
Y1  - 2020
UR  - https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/57770
SN  - 0179-1613
SN  - 1439-0310
VL  - 127
IS  - 3
SP  - 302
EP  - 306
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  -