TY  - JOUR
A1  - Willner, Sven N.
A1  - Otto, Christian
A1  - Levermann, Anders
T1  - Global economic response to river floods
T2  - Nature climate change
N2  - Increasing Earth’s surface air temperature yields an intensification of its hydrological cycle. As a consequence, the risk of river floods will increase regionally within the next two decades due to the atmospheric warming caused by past anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The direct economic losses caused by these floods can yield regionally heterogeneous losses and gains by propagation within the global trade and supply network. Here we show that, in the absence of large-scale structural adaptation, the total economic losses due to fluvial floods will increase in the next 20 years globally by 17% despite partial compensation through market adjustment within the global trade network. China will suffer the strongest direct losses, with an increase of 82%. The United States is mostly affected indirectly through its trade relations. By contrast to the United States, recent intensification of the trade relations with China leaves the European Union better prepared for the import of production losses in the future.
Y1  - 2018
UR  - https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/52895
SN  - 1758-678X
SN  - 1758-6798
VL  - 8
IS  - 7
SP  - 594
EP  - 598
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - London
ER  -