TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ciemer, Catrin
A1  - Boers, Niklas
A1  - Hirota, Marina
A1  - Kurths, Jürgen
A1  - Müller-Hansen, Finn
A1  - Oliveira, Rafael S.
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
T1  - Higher resilience to climatic disturbances in tropical vegetation exposed to more variable rainfall
T2  - Nature geoscience
N2  - With ongoing global warming, the amount and frequency of precipitation in the tropics is projected to change substantially. While it has been shown that tropical forests and savannahs are sustained within the same intermediate mean annual precipitation range, the mechanisms that lead to the resilience of these ecosystems are still not fully understood. In particular, the long-term impact of rainfall variability on resilience is as yet unclear. Here we present observational evidence that both tropical forest and savannah exposed to a higher rainfall variability-in particular on interannual scales-during their long-term past are overall more resilient against climatic disturbances. Based on precipitation and tree cover data in the Brazilian Amazon basin, we constructed potential landscapes that enable us to systematically measure the resilience of the different ecosystems. Additionally, we infer that shifts from forest to savannah due to decreasing precipitation in the future are more likely to occur in regions with a precursory lower rainfall variability. Long-term rainfall variability thus needs to be taken into account in resilience analyses and projections of vegetation response to climate change.
Y1  - 2019
UR  - https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/50079
SN  - 1752-0894
SN  - 1752-0908
VL  - 12
IS  - 3
SP  - 174
EP  - 179
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - New York
ER  -