TY  - JOUR
A1  - Zöller, Gert
A1  - Holschneider, Matthias
T1  - The Earthquake History in a Fault Zone Tells Us Almost Nothing about m(max)
T2  - Seismological research letters
N2  - In the present study, we summarize and evaluate the endeavors from recent years to estimate the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max) from observed data. In particular, we use basic and physically motivated assumptions to identify best cases and worst cases in terms of lowest and highest degree of uncertainty of m(max). In a general framework, we demonstrate that earthquake data and earthquake proxy data recorded in a fault zone provide almost no information about m(max) unless reliable and homogeneous data of a long time interval, including several earthquakes with magnitude close to m(max), are available. Even if detailed earthquake information from some centuries including historic and paleoearthquakes are given, only very few, namely the largest events, will contribute at all to the estimation of m(max), and this results in unacceptably high uncertainties. As a consequence, estimators of m(max) in a fault zone, which are based solely on earthquake-related information from this region, have to be dismissed.
Y1  - 2016
UR  - https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/45819
SN  - 0895-0695
SN  - 1938-2057
VL  - 87
SP  - 132
EP  - 137
PB  - Seismological Society of America
CY  - Albany
ER  -