TY  - JOUR
A1  - Melnick, Daniel
A1  - Li, Shaoyang
A1  - Moreno, Marcos
A1  - Cisternas, Marco
A1  - Jara-Munoz, Julius
A1  - Wesson, Robert
A1  - Nelson, Alan
A1  - Baez, Juan Carlos
A1  - Deng, Zhiguo
T1  - Back to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake
T2  - Nature Communications
N2  - Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M-w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to similar to 70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events.
Y1  - 2018
UR  - https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/52148
SN  - 2041-1723
VL  - 9
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - London
ER  -