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In some catchments, the distribution of annual maximum streamflow shows heavy tail behavior, meaning the occurrence probability of extreme events is higher than if the upper tail decayed exponentially. Neglecting heavy tail behavior can lead to an underestimation of the likelihood of extreme floods and the associated risk. Partly contradictory results regarding the controls of heavy tail behavior exist in the literature and the knowledge is still very dispersed and limited. To better understand the drivers, we analyze the upper tail behavior and its controls for 480 catchments in Germany and Austria over a period of more than 50 years. The catchments span from quickly reacting mountain catchments to large lowland catchments, allowing for general conclusions. We compile a wide range of event and catchment characteristics and investigate their association with an indicator of the tail heaviness of flood distributions, namely the shape parameter of the GEV distribution. Following univariate analyses of these characteristics, along with an evaluation of different aggregations of event characteristics, multiple linear regression models, as well as random forests, are constructed. A novel slope indicator, which represents the relation between the return period of flood peaks and event characteristics, captures the controls of heavy tails best. Variables describing the catchment response are found to dominate the heavy tail behavior, followed by event precipitation, flood seasonality, and catchment size. The pre-event moisture state in a catchment has no relevant impact on the tail heaviness even though it does influence flood magnitudes.
Gravitational waves from the collision of binary neutron stars provide a unique opportunity to study the behaviour of supranuclear matter, the fundamental properties of gravity and the cosmic history of our Universe. However, given the complexity of Einstein's field equations, theoretical models that enable source-property inference suffer from systematic uncertainties due to simplifying assumptions. We develop a hypermodel approach to compare and measure the uncertainty of gravitational-wave approximants. Using state-of-the-art models, we apply this new technique to the binary neutron star observations GW170817 and GW190425 and to the sub-threshold candidate GW200311_103121. Our analysis reveals subtle systematic differences (with Bayesian odds of similar to 2) between waveform models. A frequency-dependence study suggests that this may be due to the treatment of the tidal sector. This new technique provides a proving ground for model development and a means to identify waveform systematics in future observing runs where detector improvements will increase the number and clarity of binary neutron star collisions we observe.
There is a longstanding and widely held misconception about the relative remoteness of abstract concepts from concrete experiences. This review examines the current evidence for external influences and internal constraints on the processing, representation, and use of abstract concepts, like truth, friendship, and number. We highlight the theoretical benefit of distinguishing between grounded and embodied cognition and then ask which roles do perception, action, language, and social interaction play in acquiring, representing and using abstract concepts. By reviewing several studies, we show that they are, against the accepted definition, not detached from perception and action. Focussing on magnitude-related concepts, we also discuss evidence for cultural influences on abstract knowledge and explore how internal processes such as inner speech, metacognition, and inner bodily signals (interoception) influence the acquisition and retrieval of abstract knowledge. Finally, we discuss some methodological developments. Specifically, we focus on the importance of studies that investigate the time course of conceptual processing and we argue that, because of the paramount role of sociality for abstract concepts, new methods are necessary to study concepts in interactive situations. We conclude that bodily, linguistic, and social constraints provide important theoretical limitations for our theories of conceptual knowledge.
Accurate and precise characterization of cirrus cloud geometrical and optical properties is essential for better constraining their radiative footprint. A lidar-based retrieval scheme is proposed here, with its performance assessed on fine spatio-temporal observations over the Arctic site of Ny-Alesund, Svalbard. Two contributions related to cirrus geometrical (dynamic Wavelet Covariance Transform (WCT)) and optical properties (constrained Klett) are reported. The dynamic WCT rendered cirrus detection more robust, especially for thin cirrus layers that frequently remained undetected by the classical WCT method. Regarding optical characterization, we developed an iterative scheme for determining the cirrus lidar ratio (LRci) that is a crucial parameter for aerosol - cloud discrimination. Building upon the Klett-Fernald method, the LRci was constrained by an additional reference value. In established methods, such as the double-ended Klett, an aerosol-free reference value is applied. In the proposed constrained Klett, however, the reference value was approximated from cloud-free or low cloud optical depth (COD up to 0.2) profiles and proved to agree with independent Raman estimates. For optically thin cirrus, the constrained Klett inherent uncertainties reached 50% (60-74%) in terms of COD (LRci). However, for opaque cirrus COD (LRci) uncertainties were lower than 10% (15%). The detection method discrepancies (dynamic versus static WCT) had a higher impact on the optical properties of low COD layers (up to 90%) compared to optically thicker ones (less than 10%). The constrained Klett presented high agreement with two established retrievals. For an exemplary cirrus cloud, the constrained Klett estimated the COD355 (LRci355) at 0.28 +/- 0.17 (29 +/- 4 sr), the double-ended Klett at 0.27 +/- 0.15 (32 +/- 4 sr) and the Raman retrievals at 0.22 +/- 0.12 (26 +/- 11 sr). Our approach to determine the necessary reference value can also be applied in established methods and increase their accuracy. In contrast, the classical aerosol-free assumption led to 44 sr LRci overestimation in optically thin layers and 2-8 sr in thicker ones. The multiple scattering effect was corrected using Eloranta (1998) and accounted for 50-60% extinction underestimation near the cloud base and 20-30% within the cirrus layers.
Spring Issue
(2024)
The metastable paragenesis of corundum and quartz is rare in nature but common in laboratory experiments where according to thermodynamic predictions aluminum-silicate polymorphs should form. We demonstrate here that the existence of a hydrous, silicon-bearing, nanometer-thick layer (called "HSNL") on the corundum surface can explain this metastability in experimental studies without invoking unspecific kinetic inhibition. We investigated experimentally formed corundum reaction products synthesized during hydrothermal and piston-cylinder experiments at 500-800 degrees C and 0.25-1.8 GPa and found that this HSNL formed inside and on the corundum crystals, thereby controlling the growth behavior of its host. The HSNL represents a substitution of Al with Si and H along the basal plane of corundum. Along the interface of corundum and quartz, the HSNL effectively isolates the bulk phases corundum and quartz from each other, thus apparently preventing their reaction to the stable aluminum silicate. High temperatures and prolonged experimental duration lead to recrystallization of corundum including the HSNL and to the formation of quartz + fluid inclusions inside the host crystal. This process reduces the phase boundary area between the bulk phases, thereby providing further opportunity to expand their coexistence. In addition to its small size, its transient nature makes it difficult to detect the HSNL in experiments and even more so in natural samples. Our findings emphasize the potential impact of nanometer-sized phases on geochemical reaction pathways and kinetics under metamorphic conditions in one of the most important chemical systems of the Earth's crust.
Glucosinolates are plant secondary metabolites found in cruciferous vegetables (Brassicaceae) that are valued for their potential health benefits. Frequently consumed representatives of these vegetables, for example, are white or red cabbage, which are typically boiled before consumption. Recently, 3-alk(en)yl-4-hydroxythiazolidine-2-thiones were identified as a class of thermal glucosinolate degradation products that are formed during the boiling of cabbage. Since these newly discovered compounds are frequently consumed, this raises questions about their potential uptake and their possible bioactive functions. Therefore, 3-allyl-4-hydroxythiazolidine-2-thione (allyl HTT) and 4-hydroxy-3-(4-(methylsulfinyl) butyl)thiazolidine-2-thione (4-MSOB HTT) as degradation products of the respective glucosinolates sinigrin and glucoraphanin were investigated. After consumption of boiled red cabbage broth, recoveries of consumed amounts of the degradation products in urine collected for 24 h were 18 +/- 5% for allyl HTT and 21 +/- 4% for 4-MSOB HTT (mean +/- SD, n = 3). To investigate the stability of the degradation products during uptake and to elucidate the uptake mechanism, both an in vitro stomach and an in vitro intestinal model were applied. The results indicate that the uptake of allyl HTT and 4-MSOB HTT occurs by passive diffusion. Both compounds show no acute cell toxicity, no antioxidant potential, and no change in NAD(P)H dehydrogenase quinone 1 (NQO1) activity up to 100 mu M. However, inhibition of glycogen synthase kinases-3 (GSK-3) in the range of 20% for allyl HTT for the isoform GSK-3 beta and 29% for 4-MSOB HTT for the isoform GSK-3 alpha at a concentration of 100 mu M was found. Neither health-promoting nor toxic effects of 3-alk(en)yl-4-hydroxythiazolidine-2-thiones were found in the four tested assays carried out in this study, which contrasts with the properties of other glucosinolate degradation products, such as isothiocyanates.
Despite its high-seismogenic potential, the details of the seismogenic processes of Zagros Simply Folded Belt (SFB) remains debated. Three large earthquakes (M-w 7.3, 5.9 and 6.3) struck in the Lurestan arc of the Zagros SFB in 2017 and 2018. The sequence was recorded by seismic stations at regional, and teleseismic distances. Coseismic surface displacements, measured by Sentinel-1A/B satellites, provide additional data and a unique opportunity to study these earthquakes in detail. Here, we complement previous studies of the coseismic slip distribution of the 12 November 2017 M-w 7.3 Ezgeleh earthquake by a detailed analysis of its aftershocks, and we analysed the rupture process of the two interrelated earthquakes (25 August 2018 M-w 5.9 Tazehabad and the 25 November 2018 M-w 6.3 Sarpol-e Zahab earthquakes). We model the surface displacements obtained from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements and seismic records. We conduct non-linear probabilistic optimizations based on joint InSAR and seismic data to obtain finite-fault rupture of these earthquakes. The Lurestan arc earthquakes were followed by a sustained aftershock activity, with 133 aftershocks exceeding M-n 4.0 until 30 December 2019. We rely on the permanent seismic networks of Iran and Iraq to relocate similar to 700 M-n 3 + events and estimate moment tensor solutions for 85 aftershocks down to M-w 4.0. The 2017 Ezgeleh earthquake has been considered to activate a low-angle (similar to 17 degrees) dextral-thrust fault at the depth of 10-20 km. However, most of its aftershocks have shallow centroid depths (8-12 km). The joint interpretation of finite source models, moment tensor and hypocentral location indicate that the 2018 Tazehabad and Sarpol-e Zahab earthquakes ruptured different strike-slip structures, providing evidence for the activation of the sinistral and dextral strike-slip faults, respectively. The deformation in the Lurestan arc is seismically accommodated by a complex fault system involving both thrust and strike-slip faults. Knowledge about the deformation characteristics is important for the understanding of crustal shortening, faulting and hazard and risk assessment in this region.
We present the analysis of Very Large Telescope Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) observations of the planetary nebula (PN) IC 4406. MUSE images in key emission lines are used to unveil the presence of at least five ring-like structures north and south of the main nebula of IC4406. MUSE spectra are extracted from the rings to unambiguously assess for the first time in a PN their physical conditions, electron density (n(e)), and temperature (T-e). The rings are found to have similar T-e as the rim of the main nebula, but smaller n(e). Ratios between different ionic species suggest that the rings of IC4406 have a lower ionization state than the main cavity, in contrast to what was suggested for the rings in NGC 6543, the Cat's Eye Nebula.