Stochastic time series of daily precipitation for the interior of Israel

  • This contribution describes a generator of stochastic time series of daily precipitation for the interior of Israel from c. 90 to 900 mm mean annual precipitation (MAP) as a tool for studies of daily rain variability. The probability of rainfall on a given day of the year is described by a regular Gaussian peak curve function. The amount of rain is drawn randomly from an exponential distribution whose mean is the daily mean rain amount (averaged across years for each day of the year) described by a flattened Gaussian peak curve. Parameters for the curves have been calculated from monthly aggregated, long-term rain records from seven meteorological stations. Parameters for arbitrary points on the MAP gradient are calculated from a regression equation with MAP as the only independent variable. The simple structure of the generator allows it to produce time series with daily rain patterns that are projected under climate change scenarios and simultaneously control MAP. Increasing within-year variability of daily precipitation amounts alsThis contribution describes a generator of stochastic time series of daily precipitation for the interior of Israel from c. 90 to 900 mm mean annual precipitation (MAP) as a tool for studies of daily rain variability. The probability of rainfall on a given day of the year is described by a regular Gaussian peak curve function. The amount of rain is drawn randomly from an exponential distribution whose mean is the daily mean rain amount (averaged across years for each day of the year) described by a flattened Gaussian peak curve. Parameters for the curves have been calculated from monthly aggregated, long-term rain records from seven meteorological stations. Parameters for arbitrary points on the MAP gradient are calculated from a regression equation with MAP as the only independent variable. The simple structure of the generator allows it to produce time series with daily rain patterns that are projected under climate change scenarios and simultaneously control MAP. Increasing within-year variability of daily precipitation amounts also increases among-year variability of MAP as predicted by global circulation models. Thus, the time series incorporate important characteristics for climate change research and represent a flexible tool for simulations of daily vegetation or surface hydrology dynamics.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author:Martin Köchy
URN:urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-13155
Series (Serial Number):Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe, ISSN 1866-8372 (paper 029)
Document Type:Postprint
Language:English
Date of Publication (online):2007/05/07
Year of Completion:2006
Publishing Institution:Universität Potsdam
Release Date:2007/05/07
Tag:Israel; Klimawandel; stochastische Zeitreihen; täglicher Niederschlag
Israel; climate change; daily precipitation; stochastic time series
Source:Israel Journal of Earth Science. - 55 (2006), 2, p. 103 - 109. - ISSN: 0021-2164
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Biochemie und Biologie
Dewey Decimal Classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 50 Naturwissenschaften / 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik
Collections:Universität Potsdam / Aufsätze (Pre- und Postprints) / Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Biochemie und Biologie / Vegetationsökologie und Naturschutz
Notes extern:
This paper was first published in:
Israel Journal of Earth Science, 55 (2006), 2, p. 103 - 109
ISSN 0021-2164
DOI: 10.1560/IJES_55_2_103