@misc{FuchsGrosseStraussetal.2018, author = {Fuchs, Matthias and Grosse, Guido and Strauss, Jens and G{\"u}nther, Frank and Grigoriev, Mikhail N. and Maximov, Georgy M. and Hugelius, Gustaf}, title = {Carbon and nitrogen pools in thermokarst-affected permafrost landscapes in Arctic Siberia}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, volume = {15}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {654}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41802}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418026}, pages = {19}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Ice-rich yedoma-dominated landscapes store con- siderable amounts of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) and are vulnerable to degradation under climate warming. We investigate the C and N pools in two thermokarst-affected yedoma landscapes - on Sobo-Sise Island and on Bykovsky Peninsula in the north of eastern Siberia. Soil cores up to 3 m depth were collected along geomorphic gradients and anal- ysed for organic C and N contents. A high vertical sampling density in the profiles allowed the calculation of C and N stocks for short soil column intervals and enhanced under- standing of within-core parameter variability. Profile-level C and N stocks were scaled to the landscape level based on landform classifications from 5 m resolution, multispectral RapidEye satellite imagery. Mean landscape C and N storage in the first metre of soil for Sobo-Sise Island is estimated to be 20.2 kg C m -2 and 1.8 kg N m -2 and for Bykovsky Penin- sula 25.9 kg C m -2 and 2.2 kg N m -2 . Radiocarbon dating demonstrates the Holocene age of thermokarst basin de- posits but also suggests the presence of thick Holocene- age cover layers which can reach up to 2 m on top of in- tact yedoma landforms. Reconstructed sedimentation rates of 0.10-0.57 mm yr -1 suggest sustained mineral soil accu- mulation across all investigated landforms. Both yedoma and thermokarst landforms are characterized by limited accumu- lation of organic soil layers (peat). We further estimate that an active layer deepening of about 100 cm will increase organic C availability in a sea- sonally thawed state in the two study areas by ∼ 5.8 Tg (13.2 kg C m -2 ). Our study demonstrates the importance of increasing the number of C and N storage inventories in ice- rich yedoma and thermokarst environments in order to ac- count for high variability of permafrost and thermokarst en- vironments in pan-permafrost soil C and N pool estimates.}, language = {en} } @misc{AlHalbouniHolohanTaherietal.2018, author = {Al-Halbouni, Djamil and Holohan, Eoghan P. and Taheri, Abbas and Sch{\"o}pfer, Martin P. J. and Emam, Sacha and Dahm, Torsten}, title = {Geomechanical modelling of sinkhole development using distinct elements}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1061}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-46843}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468435}, pages = {35}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Mechanical and/or chemical removal of material from the subsurface may generate large subsurface cavities, the destabilisation of which can lead to ground collapse and the formation of sinkholes. Numerical simulation of the interaction of cavity growth, host material deformation and overburden collapse is desirable to better understand the sinkhole hazard but is a challenging task due to the involved high strains and material discontinuities. Here, we present 2-D distinct element method numerical simulations of cavity growth and sinkhole development. Firstly, we simulate cavity formation by quasi-static, stepwise removal of material in a single growing zone of an arbitrary geometry and depth. We benchmark this approach against analytical and boundary element method models of a deep void space in a linear elastic material. Secondly, we explore the effects of properties of different uniform materials on cavity stability and sinkhole development. We perform simulated biaxial tests to calibrate macroscopic geotechnical parameters of three model materials representative of those in which sinkholes develop at the Dead Sea shoreline: mud, alluvium and salt. We show that weak materials do not support large cavities, leading to gradual sagging or suffusion-style subsidence. Strong materials support quasi-stable to stable cavities, the overburdens of which may fail suddenly in a caprock or bedrock collapse style. Thirdly, we examine the consequences of layered arrangements of weak and strong materials. We find that these are more susceptible to sinkhole collapse than uniform materials not only due to a lower integrated strength of the overburden but also due to an inhibition of stabilising stress arching. Finally, we compare our model sinkhole geometries to observations at the Ghor Al-Haditha sinkhole site in Jordan. Sinkhole depth ∕ diameter ratios of 0.15 in mud, 0.37 in alluvium and 0.33 in salt are reproduced successfully in the calibrated model materials. The model results suggest that the observed distribution of sinkhole depth ∕ diameter values in each material type may partly reflect sinkhole growth trends.}, language = {en} } @misc{SunyerHundechaLawrenceetal.2015, author = {Sunyer, M. A. and Hundecha, Y. and Lawrence, D. and Madsen, H. and Willems, Patrick and Martinkova, M. and Vormoor, Klaus Josef and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Hanel, Martin and Kriaučiūnienė, J. and Loukas, A. and Osuch, M. and Y{\"u}cel, I.}, title = {Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {512}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40892}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408920}, pages = {21}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Information on extreme precipitation for future climate is needed to assess the changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding. The primary source of information in climate change impact studies is climate model projections. However, due to the coarse resolution and biases of these models, they cannot be directly used in hydrological models. Hence, statistical downscaling is necessary to address climate change impacts at the catchment scale. This study compares eight statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) often used in climate change impact studies. Four methods are based on change factors (CFs), three are bias correction (BC) methods, and one is a perfect prognosis method. The eight methods are used to downscale precipitation output from 15 regional climate models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES project for 11 catchments in Europe. The overall results point to an increase in extreme precipitation in most catchments in both winter and summer. For individual catchments, the downscaled time series tend to agree on the direction of the change but differ in the magnitude. Differences between the SDMs vary between the catchments and depend on the season analysed. Similarly, general conclusions cannot be drawn regarding the differences between CFs and BC methods. The performance of the BC methods during the control period also depends on the catchment, but in most cases they represent an improvement compared to RCM outputs. Analysis of the variance in the ensemble of RCMs and SDMs indicates that at least 30\% and up to approximately half of the total variance is derived from the SDMs. This study illustrates the large variability in the expected changes in extreme precipitation and highlights the need for considering an ensemble of both SDMs and climate models. Recommendations are provided for the selection of the most suitable SDMs to include in the analysis.}, language = {en} } @misc{TillnerLangerKempkaetal.2016, author = {Tillner, Elena and Langer, Maria and Kempka, Thomas and K{\"u}hn, Michael}, title = {Fault damage zone volume and initial salinity distribution determine intensity of shallow aquifer salinisation in subsurface storage}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {548}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41185}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-411854}, pages = {19}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Injection of fluids into deep saline aquifers causes a pore pressure increase in the storage formation, and thus displacement of resident brine. Via hydraulically conductive faults, brine may migrate upwards into shallower aquifers and lead to unwanted salinisation of potable groundwater resources. In the present study, we investigated different scenarios for a potential storage site in the Northeast German Basin using a three-dimensional (3-D) regional-scale model that includes four major fault zones. The focus was on assessing the impact of fault length and the effect of a secondary reservoir above the storage formation, as well as model boundary conditions and initial salinity distribution on the potential salinisation of shallow groundwater resources. We employed numerical simulations of brine injection as a representative fluid. Our simulation results demonstrate that the lateral model boundary settings and the effective fault damage zone volume have the greatest influence on pressure build-up and development within the reservoir, and thus intensity and duration of fluid flow through the faults. Higher vertical pressure gradients for short fault segments or a small effective fault damage zone volume result in the highest salinisation potential due to a larger vertical fault height affected by fluid displacement. Consequently, it has a strong impact on the degree of shallow aquifer salinisation, whether a gradient in salinity exists or the saltwater-freshwater interface lies below the fluid displacement depth in the faults. A small effective fault damage zone volume or low fault permeability further extend the duration of fluid flow, which can persist for several tens to hundreds of years, if the reservoir is laterally confined. Laterally open reservoir boundaries, large effective fault damage zone volumes and intermediate reservoirs significantly reduce vertical brine migration and the potential of freshwater salinisation because the origin depth of displaced brine is located only a few decametres below the shallow aquifer in maximum. The present study demonstrates that the existence of hydraulically conductive faults is not necessarily an exclusion criterion for potential injection sites, because salinisation of shallower aquifers strongly depends on initial salinity distribution, location of hydraulically conductive faults and their effective damage zone volumes as well as geological boundary conditions.}, language = {en} } @misc{NeugebauerSchwabWaldmannetal.2016, author = {Neugebauer, Ina and Schwab, M. J. and Waldmann, Nicolas D. and Tjallingii, Rik and Frank, U. and Hadzhiivanova, E. and Naumann, R. and Taha, N. and Agnon, Amotz and Enzel, Y. and Brauer, Achim}, title = {Hydroclimatic variability in the Levant during the early last glacial (similar to 117-75 ka) derived from micro-facies analyses of deep Dead Sea sediments}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {549}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41187}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-411879}, pages = {16}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The new sediment record from the deep Dead Sea basin (ICDP core 5017-1) provides a unique archive for hydroclimatic variability in the Levant. Here, we present high-resolution sediment facies analysis and elemental composition by micro-X-ray fluorescence (mu XRF) scanning of core 5017-1 to trace lake levels and responses of the regional hydroclimatology during the time interval from ca. 117 to 75 ka, i. e. the transition between the last interglacial and the onset of the last glaciation. We distinguished six major micro-facies types and interpreted these and their alterations in the core in terms of relative lake level changes. The two end-member facies for highest and lowest lake levels are (a) up to several metres thick, greenish sediments of alternating aragonite and detrital marl laminae (aad) and (b) thick halite facies, respectively. Intermediate lake levels are characterised by detrital marls with varying amounts of aragonite, gypsum or halite, reflecting lower-amplitude, shorter-term variability. Two intervals of pronounced lake level drops occurred at similar to 110-108 +/- 5 and similar to 93-87 +/- 7 ka. They likely coincide with stadial conditions in the central Mediterranean (Melisey I and II pollen zones in Monticchio) and low global sea levels during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5d and 5b. However, our data do not support the current hypothesis of an almost complete desiccation of the Dead Sea during the earlier of these lake level low stands based on a recovered gravel layer. Based on new petrographic analyses, we propose that, although it was a low stand, this well-sorted gravel layer may be a vestige of a thick turbidite that has been washed out during drilling rather than an in situ beach deposit. Two intervals of higher lake stands at similar to 108-93 +/- 6 and similar to 87-75 +/- 7 ka correspond to interstadial conditions in the central Mediterranean, i. e. pollen zones St. Germain I and II in Monticchio, and Greenland interstadials (GI) 24+23 and 21 in Greenland, as well as to sapropels S4 and S3 in the Mediterranean Sea. These apparent correlations suggest a close link of the climate in the Levant to North Atlantic and Mediterranean climates during the time of the build-up of Northern Hemisphere ice shields in the early last glacial period.}, language = {en} } @misc{MuellerBoeckmannKolgotinetal.2016, author = {M{\"u}ller, Detlef and B{\"o}ckmann, Christine and Kolgotin, Alexei and Schneidenbach, Lars and Chemyakin, Eduard and Rosemann, Julia and Znak, Pavel and Romanov, Anton}, title = {Microphysical particle properties derived from inversion algorithms developed in the framework of EARLINET}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {565}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41193}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-411934}, pages = {29}, year = {2016}, abstract = {We present a summary on the current status of two inversion algorithms that are used in EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network) for the inversion of data collected with EARLINET multiwavelength Raman lidars. These instruments measure backscatter coefficients at 355, 532, and 1064 nm, and extinction coefficients at 355 and 532 nm. Development of these two algorithms started in 2000 when EARLINET was founded. The algorithms are based on a manually controlled inversion of optical data which allows for detailed sensitivity studies. The algorithms allow us to derive particle effective radius as well as volume and surface area concentration with comparably high confidence. The retrieval of the real and imaginary parts of the complex refractive index still is a challenge in view of the accuracy required for these parameters in climate change studies in which light absorption needs to be known with high accuracy. It is an extreme challenge to retrieve the real part with an accuracy better than 0.05 and the imaginary part with accuracy better than 0.005-0.1 or +/- 50 \%. Single-scattering albedo can be computed from the retrieved microphysical parameters and allows us to categorize aerosols into high-and low-absorbing aerosols. On the basis of a few exemplary simulations with synthetic optical data we discuss the current status of these manually operated algorithms, the potentially achievable accuracy of data products, and the goals for future work. One algorithm was used with the purpose of testing how well microphysical parameters can be derived if the real part of the complex refractive index is known to at least 0.05 or 0.1. The other algorithm was used to find out how well microphysical parameters can be derived if this constraint for the real part is not applied. The optical data used in our study cover a range of Angstrom exponents and extinction-to-backscatter (lidar) ratios that are found from lidar measurements of various aerosol types. We also tested aerosol scenarios that are considered highly unlikely, e.g. the lidar ratios fall outside the commonly accepted range of values measured with Raman lidar, even though the underlying microphysical particle properties are not uncommon. The goal of this part of the study is to test the robustness of the algorithms towards their ability to identify aerosol types that have not been measured so far, but cannot be ruled out based on our current knowledge of aerosol physics. We computed the optical data from monomodal logarithmic particle size distributions, i.e. we explicitly excluded the more complicated case of bimodal particle size distributions which is a topic of ongoing research work. Another constraint is that we only considered particles of spherical shape in our simulations. We considered particle radii as large as 7-10 mu m in our simulations where the Potsdam algorithm is limited to the lower value. We considered optical-data errors of 15\% in the simulation studies. We target 50\% uncertainty as a reasonable threshold for our data products, though we attempt to obtain data products with less uncertainty in future work.}, language = {en} } @misc{LangerwischWalzRammigetal.2016, author = {Langerwisch, F. and Walz, Ariane and Rammig, A. and Tietjen, B. and Thonicke, Kirsten and Cramer, Wolfgang}, title = {Climate change increases riverine carbon outgassing, while export to the ocean remains uncertain}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {526}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41017}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410177}, pages = {24}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Any regular interaction of land and river during flooding affects carbon pools within the terrestrial system, riverine carbon and carbon exported from the system. In the Amazon basin carbon fluxes are considerably influenced by annual flooding, during which terrigenous organic material is imported to the river. The Amazon basin therefore represents an excellent example of a tightly coupled terrestrial-riverine system. The processes of generation, conversion and transport of organic carbon in such a coupled terrigenous-riverine system strongly interact and are climate-sensitive, yet their functioning is rarely considered in Earth system models and their response to climate change is still largely unknown. To quantify regional and global carbon budgets and climate change effects on carbon pools and carbon fluxes, it is important to account for the coupling between the land, the river, the ocean and the atmosphere. We developed the RIVerine Carbon Model (RivCM), which is directly coupled to the well-established dynamic vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL, in order to account for this large-scale coupling. We evaluate RivCM with observational data and show that some of the values are reproduced quite well by the model, while we see large deviations for other variables. This is mainly caused by some simplifications we assumed. Our evaluation shows that it is possible to reproduce large-scale carbon transport across a river system but that this involves large uncertainties. Acknowledging these uncertainties, we estimate the potential changes in riverine carbon by applying RivCM for climate forcing from five climate models and three CO2 emission scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES). We find that climate change causes a doubling of riverine organic carbon in the southern and western basin while reducing it by 20\% in the eastern and northern parts. In contrast, the amount of riverine inorganic carbon shows a 2- to 3-fold increase in the entire basin, independent of the SRES scenario. The export of carbon to the atmosphere increases as well, with an average of about 30 \%. In contrast, changes in future export of organic carbon to the Atlantic Ocean depend on the SRES scenario and are projected to either decrease by about 8.9\% (SRES A1B) or increase by about 9.1\% (SRES A2). Such changes in the terrigenous-riverine system could have local and regional impacts on the carbon budget of the whole Amazon basin and parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Changes in riverine carbon could lead to a shift in the riverine nutrient supply and pH, while changes in the exported carbon to the ocean lead to changes in the supply of organic material that acts as a food source in the Atlantic. On larger scales the increased outgassing of CO2 could turn the Amazon basin from a sink of carbon to a considerable source. Therefore, we propose that the coupling of terrestrial and riverine carbon budgets should be included in subsequent analysis of the future regional carbon budget.}, language = {en} } @misc{LangerwischWalzRammigetal.2016, author = {Langerwisch, Fanny and Walz, Ariane and Rammig, Anja and Tietjen, Britta and Thonicke, Kirsten and Cramer, Wolfgang}, title = {Deforestation in Amazonia impacts riverine carbon dynamics}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {535}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41022}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410225}, pages = {16}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Fluxes of organic and inorganic carbon within the Amazon basin are considerably controlled by annual flooding, which triggers the export of terrigenous organic material to the river and ultimately to the Atlantic Ocean. The amount of carbon imported to the river and the further conversion, transport and export of it depend on temperature, atmospheric CO2, terrestrial productivity and carbon storage, as well as discharge. Both terrestrial productivity and discharge are influenced by climate and land use change. The coupled LPJmL and RivCM model system (Langerwisch et al., 2016) has been applied to assess the combined impacts of climate and land use change on the Amazon riverine carbon dynamics. Vegetation dynamics (in LPJmL) as well as export and conversion of terrigenous carbon to and within the river (RivCM) are included. The model system has been applied for the years 1901 to 2099 under two deforestation scenarios and with climate forcing of three SRES emission scenarios, each for five climate models. We find that high deforestation (business-as-usual scenario) will strongly decrease (locally by up to 90 \%) riverine particulate and dissolved organic carbon amount until the end of the current century. At the same time, increase in discharge leaves net carbon transport during the first decades of the century roughly unchanged only if a sufficient area is still forested. After 2050 the amount of transported carbon will decrease drastically. In contrast to that, increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration determine the amount of riverine inorganic carbon stored in the Amazon basin. Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase riverine inorganic carbon amount by up to 20\% (SRES A2). The changes in riverine carbon fluxes have direct effects on carbon export, either to the atmosphere via outgassing or to the Atlantic Ocean via discharge. The outgassed carbon will increase slightly in the Amazon basin, but can be regionally reduced by up to 60\% due to deforestation. The discharge of organic carbon to the ocean will be reduced by about 40\% under the most severe deforestation and climate change scenario. These changes would have local and regional consequences on the carbon balance and habitat characteristics in the Amazon basin itself as well as in the adjacent Atlantic Ocean.}, language = {en} } @misc{EgholmAndersenFaurschouKnudsenetal.2015, author = {Egholm, David L. and Andersen, Jane Lund and Faurschou Knudsen, Mads and Jansen, John D. and Nielsen, S. B.}, title = {The periglacial engine of mountain erosion}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {552}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40971}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409718}, pages = {20}, year = {2015}, abstract = {There is growing recognition of strong periglacial control on bedrock erosion in mountain landscapes, including the shaping of low-relief surfaces at high elevations (summit flats). But, as yet, the hypothesis that frost action was crucial to the assumed Late Cenozoic rise in erosion rates remains compelling and untested. Here we present a landscape evolution model incorporating two key periglacial processes - regolith production via frost cracking and sediment transport via frost creep - which together are harnessed to variations in temperature and the evolving thickness of sediment cover. Our computational experiments time-integrate the contribution of frost action to shaping mountain topography over million-year timescales, with the primary and highly reproducible outcome being the development of flattish or gently convex summit flats. A simple scaling of temperature to marine delta O-18 records spanning the past 14 Myr indicates that the highest summit flats in mid-to high-latitude mountains may have formed via frost action prior to the Quaternary. We suggest that deep cooling in the Quaternary accelerated mechanical weathering globally by significantly expanding the area subject to frost. Further, the inclusion of subglacial erosion alongside periglacial processes in our computational experiments points to alpine glaciers increasing the long-term efficiency of frost-driven erosion by steepening hillslopes.}, language = {en} } @misc{DallmeyerClaussenFischeretal.2015, author = {Dallmeyer, Anne and Claussen, M. and Fischer, N. and Haberkorn, K. and Wagner, S. and Pfeiffer, M. and Jin, L. and Khon, Vyacheslav and Wang, Y. and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {587}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40972}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409727}, pages = {22}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i. e. onset, peak and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in centennial rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. Rather they indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.}, language = {en} } @misc{SiddiquiLuehrStolleetal.2015, author = {Siddiqui, Tarique Adnan and L{\"u}hr, H. and Stolle, Claudia and Park, J.}, title = {Relation between stratospheric sudden warming and the lunar effect on the equatorial electrojet based on Huancayo recordings}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {517}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40956}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409564}, pages = {9}, year = {2015}, abstract = {It has been known for many decades that the lunar tidal influence in the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) is noticeably enhanced during Northern Hemisphere winters. Recent literature has discussed the role of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events behind the enhancement of lunar tides and the findings suggest a positive correlation between the lunar tidal amplitude and lower stratospheric parameters (zonal mean air temperature and zonal mean zonal wind) during SSW events. The positive correlation raises the question whether an inverse approach could also be developed which makes it possible to deduce the occurrence of SSW events before their direct observations (before 1952) from the amplitude of the lunar tides. This study presents an analysis technique based on the phase of the semi-monthly lunar tide to determine the lunar tidal modulation of the EEJ. A statistical approach using the superposed epoch analysis is also carried out to formulate a relation between the EEJ tidal amplitude and lower stratospheric parameters. Using these results, we have estimated a threshold value for the tidal wave power that could be used to identify years with SSW events from magnetic field observations.}, language = {en} } @misc{KuikLauerChurkinaetal.2016, author = {Kuik, Friderike and Lauer, Axel and Churkina, Galina and Denier Van der Gon, Hugo Anne Cornelis and Fenner, Daniel and Mar, Kathleen A. and Butler, Tim M.}, title = {Air quality modelling in the Berlin-Brandenburg region using WRF-Chem v3.7.1}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {531}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41013}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410131}, pages = {25}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Air pollution is the number one environmental cause of premature deaths in Europe. Despite extensive regulations, air pollution remains a challenge, especially in urban areas. For studying summertime air quality in the Berlin-Brandenburg region of Germany, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is set up and evaluated against meteorological and air quality observations from monitoring stations as well as from a field campaign conducted in 2014. The objective is to assess which resolution and level of detail in the input data is needed for simulating urban background air pollutant concentrations and their spatial distribution in the Berlin-Brandenburg area. The model setup includes three nested domains with horizontal resolutions of 15, 3 and 1 km and anthropogenic emissions from the TNO-MACC III inventory. We use RADM2 chemistry and the MADE/SORGAM aerosol scheme. Three sensitivity simulations are conducted updating input parameters to the single-layer urban canopy model based on structural data for Berlin, specifying land use classes on a sub-grid scale (mosaic option) and downscaling the original emissions to a resolution of ca. 1 km x 1 km for Berlin based on proxy data including traffic density and population density. The results show that the model simulates meteorology well, though urban 2m temperature and urban wind speeds are biased high and nighttime mixing layer height is biased low in the base run with the settings described above. We show that the simulation of urban meteorology can be improved when specifying the input parameters to the urban model, and to a lesser extent when using the mosaic option. On average, ozone is simulated reasonably well, but maximum daily 8 h mean concentrations are underestimated, which is consistent with the results from previous modelling studies using the RADM2 chemical mechanism. Particulate matter is underestimated, which is partly due to an underestimation of secondary organic aerosols. NOx (NO + NO2) concentrations are simulated reasonably well on average, but nighttime concentrations are overestimated due to the model's underestimation of the mixing layer height, and urban daytime concentrations are underestimated. The daytime underestimation is improved when using downscaled, and thus locally higher emissions, suggesting that part of this bias is due to deficiencies in the emission input data and their resolution. The results further demonstrate that a horizontal resolution of 3 km improves the results and spatial representativeness of the model compared to a horizontal resolution of 15 km. With the input data (land use classes, emissions) at the level of detail of the base run of this study, we find that a horizontal resolution of 1 km does not improve the results compared to a resolution of 3 km. However, our results suggest that a 1 km horizontal model resolution could enable a detailed simulation of local pollution patterns in the Berlin-Brandenburg region if the urban land use classes, together with the respective input parameters to the urban canopy model, are specified with a higher level of detail and if urban emissions of higher spatial resolution are used.}, language = {en} } @misc{HergertHeidbachReiteretal.2015, author = {Hergert, T. and Heidbach, Oliver and Reiter, Karsten and Giger, S. B. and Marschall, P.}, title = {Stress field sensitivity analysis in a sedimentary sequence of the Alpine foreland, northern Switzerland}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {522}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40960}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409600}, pages = {20}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The stress field at depth is a relevant parameter for the design of subsurface constructions and reservoir management. Yet the distortion of the regional stress field due to local-scale features such as sedimentary and tectonic structures or topography is often poorly constrained. We conduct a stress sensitivity analysis using 3-D numerical geomechanical modelling with an elasto-plastic material law to explore the impact of such site-specific features on the stress field in a sedimentary sequence of the Swiss Alpine foreland. The model's dimensions are 14 x 14 x 3 km(3) and it contains 10 units with different mechanical properties, intersected by two regional fault zones. An initial stress state is established involving a semi-empirical relationship between the ratio of horizontal to vertical stress and the overconsolidation ratio of argillaceous sediments. The model results indicate that local topography can affect the stress field significantly to depths greater than the relief contrasts at the surface, especially in conjunction with horizontal tectonic loading. The complexity and frictional properties of faults are also relevant. The greatest variability of the stress field arises across the different sedimentary units. Stress magnitudes and stress anisotropy are much larger in stiffer formations such as massive limestones than in softer argillaceous formations. The stiffer formations essentially carry the load of the far-field forces and are therefore more sensitive to changes of the boundary conditions. This general characteristic of stress distribution in the stiff and soft formations is broadly maintained also with progressive loading towards the plastic limit. The stress field in argillaceous sediments within a stack of formations with strongly contrasting mechanical properties like in the Alpine foreland appears to be relatively insensitive to changes in the tectonic boundary conditions and is largely controlled by the maximum stiffness contrast with respect to the load-bearing formations.}, language = {en} } @misc{AndersenEgholmFaurschouKnudsenetal.2015, author = {Andersen, Jane Lund and Egholm, David L. and Faurschou Knudsen, Mads and Jansen, John D. and Nielsen, S. B.}, title = {The periglacial engine of mountain erosion}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {530}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40965}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409656}, pages = {16}, year = {2015}, abstract = {With accelerating climate cooling in the late Cenozoic, glacial and periglacial erosion became more widespread on the surface of the Earth. The resultant shift in erosion patterns significantly changed the large-scale morphology of many mountain ranges worldwide. Whereas the glacial fingerprint is easily distinguished by its characteristic fjords and U-shaped valleys, the periglacial fingerprint is more subtle but potentially prevails in some mid- to high-latitude landscapes. Previous models have advocated a frost-driven control on debris production at steep headwalls and glacial valley sides. Here we investigate the important role that periglacial processes also play in less steep parts of mountain landscapes. Understanding the influences of frost-driven processes in low-relief areas requires a focus on the consequences of an accreting soil mantle, which characterises such surfaces. We present a new model that quantifies two key physical processes: frost cracking and frost creep, as a function of both temperature and sediment thickness. Our results yield new insights into how climate and sediment transport properties combine to scale the intensity of periglacial processes. The thickness of the soil mantle strongly modulates the relation between climate and the intensity of mechanical weathering and sediment flux. Our results also point to an offset between the conditions that promote frost cracking and those that promote frost creep, indicating that a stable climate can provide optimal conditions for only one of those processes at a time. Finally, quantifying these relations also opens up the possibility of including periglacial processes in large-scale, long-term landscape evolution models, as demonstrated in a companion paper.}, language = {en} } @misc{RolinskiRammigWalzetal.2014, author = {Rolinski, Susanne and Rammig, Anja and Walz, Ariane and von Bloh, Werner and van Oijen, M. and Thonicke, Kirsten}, title = {A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (487)}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (487)}, number = {487}, issn = {1866-8372}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407999}, pages = {1813 -- 1831}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model- based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.}, language = {en} } @misc{PohlHoffmannHagemannetal.2015, author = {Pohl, Madlen and Hoffmann, M. and Hagemann, Ulrike and Giebels, M. and Albiac Borraz, E. and Sommer, Michael and Augustin, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Dynamic C and N stocks}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {496}, issn = {1866-8372}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408184}, pages = {16}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The drainage and cultivation of fen peatlands create complex small-scale mosaics of soils with extremely variable soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and groundwater levels (GWLs). To date, the significance of such sites as sources or sinks for greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4 is still unclear, especially if the sites are used for cropland. As individual control factors such as GWL fail to account for this complexity, holistic approaches combining gas fluxes with the underlying processes are required to understand the carbon (C) gas exchange of drained fens. It can be assumed that the stocks of SOC and N located above the variable GWL - defined as dynamic C and N stocks - play a key role in the regulation of the plant- and microbially mediated CO2 fluxes in these soils and, inversely, for CH4. To test this assumption, the present study analysed the C gas exchange (gross primary production - GPP; ecosystem respiration - R-eco; net ecosystem exchange - NEE; CH4) of maize using manual chambers for 4 years. The study sites were located near Paulinenaue, Germany, where we selected three soil types representing the full gradient of GWL and SOC stocks (0-1 m) of the landscape: (a) Haplic Arenosol (AR; 8 kg C m(-2)); (b) Mollic Gleysol (GL; 38 kg C m(-2)); and (c) Hemic Histosol (HS; 87 kg C m(-2)). Daily GWL data were used to calculate dynamic SOC (SOCdyn) and N (N-dyn) stocks. Average annual NEE differed considerably among sites, ranging from 47 +/- 30 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in AR to -305 +/- 123 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in GL and -127 +/- 212 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in HS. While static SOC and N stocks showed no significant effect on C fluxes, SOCdyn and N-dyn and their interaction with GWL strongly influenced the C gas exchange, particularly NEE and the GPP : R-eco ratio. Moreover, based on nonlinear regression analysis, 86\% of NEE variability was explained by GWL and SOCdyn. The observed high relevance of dynamic SOC and N stocks in the aerobic zone for plant and soil gas exchange likely originates from the effects of GWL-dependent N availability on C formation and transformation processes in the plant-soil system, which promote CO2 input via GPP more than CO2 emission via R-eco. The process-oriented approach of dynamic C and N stocks is a promising, potentially generalisable method for system-oriented investigations of the C gas exchange of groundwater-influenced soils and could be expanded to other nutrients and soil characteristics. However, in order to assess the climate impact of arable sites on drained peatlands, it is always necessary to consider the entire range of groundwater-influenced mineral and organic soils and their respective areal extent within the soil landscape.}, language = {en} } @misc{ParkLuehrStolleetal.2015, author = {Park, J. and L{\"u}hr, H. and Stolle, Claudia and Malhotra, G. and Baker, J. B. H. and Buchert, Stephan and Gill, R.}, title = {Estimating along-track plasma drift speed from electron density measurements by the three Swarm satellites}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {503}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40841}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408417}, pages = {7}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Plasma convection in the high-latitude ionosphere provides important information about magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere coupling. In this study we estimate the along-track component of plasma convection within and around the polar cap, using electron density profiles measured by the three Swarm satellites. The velocity values estimated from the two different satellite pairs agree with each other. In both hemispheres the estimated velocity is generally anti-sunward, especially for higher speeds. The obtained velocity is in qualitative agreement with Super Dual Auroral Radar Network data. Our method can supplement currently available instruments for ionospheric plasma velocity measurements, especially in cases where these traditional instruments suffer from their inherent limitations. Also, the method can be generalized to other satellite constellations carrying electron density probes.}, language = {en} } @misc{AichnerFeakinsLeeetal.2015, author = {Aichner, Bernhard and Feakins, Sarah J. and Lee, J. E. and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Liu, X.}, title = {High-resolution leaf wax carbon and hydrogen isotopic record of the late Holocene paleoclimate in arid Central Asia}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {506}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40844}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408442}, pages = {15}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Central Asia is located at the confluence of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems. It is thus likely to be highly susceptible to changes in the dynamics of those systems; however, little is still known about the regional paleoclimate history. Here we present carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of n-alkanoic acids from a late Holocene sediment core from Lake Karakuli (eastern Pamir, Xinjiang Province, China). Instrumental evidence and isotopeenabled climate model experiments with the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique Zoom model version 4 (LMDZ4) demonstrate that delta D values of precipitation in the region are influenced by both temperature and precipitation amount. We find that these parameters are inversely correlated on an annual scale, i.e., the climate has varied between relatively cool and wet and more warm and dry over the last 50 years. Since the isotopic signals of these changes are in the same direction and therefore additive, isotopes in precipitation are sensitive recorders of climatic changes in the region. Additionally, we infer that plants use year-round precipitation (including snowmelt), and thus leaf wax delta D values must also respond to shifts in the proportion of moisture derived from westerly storms during late winter and early spring. Downcore results give evidence for a gradual shift to cooler and wetter climates between 3.5 and 2.5 cal kyr BP, interrupted by a warm and dry episode between 3.0 and 2.7 kyr BP. Further cool and wet episodes occur between 1.9 and 1.5 and between 0.6 and 0.1 kyr BP, the latter coeval with the Little Ice Age. Warm and dry episodes from 2.5 to 1.9 and 1.5 to 0.6 kyr BP coincide with the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly, respectively. Finally, we find a drying tend in recent decades. Regional comparisons lead us to infer that the strength and position of the westerlies, and wider northern hemispheric climate dynamics, control climatic shifts in arid Central Asia, leading to complex local responses. Our new archive from Lake Karakuli provides a detailed record of the local signatures of these climate transitions in the eastern Pamir.}, language = {en} } @misc{FritzDeshpandeBouchardetal.2015, author = {Fritz, Michael and Deshpande, B. N. and Bouchard, F. and H{\"o}gstr{\"o}m, E. and Malenfant-Lepage, J. and Morgenstern, Anne and Nieuwendam, A. and Oliva, M. and Paquette, M. and Rudy, A. C. A. and Siewert, M. B. and Sj{\"o}berg, Y. and Weege, Stefanie}, title = {Brief communication}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {490}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40809}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408096}, pages = {6}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Accelerating climate change and increased economic and environmental interests in permafrost-affected regions have resulted in an acute need for more directed permafrost research. In June 2014, 88 early career researchers convened to identify future priorities for permafrost research. This multidisciplinary forum concluded that five research topics deserve greatest attention: permafrost landscape dynamics, permafrost thermal modeling, integration of traditional knowledge, spatial distribution of ground ice, and engineering issues. These topics underline the need for integrated research across a spectrum of permafrost-related domains and constitute a contribution to the Third International Conference on Arctic Research Planning (ICARP III).}, language = {en} } @misc{SiegmundWiedermannDongesetal.2016, author = {Siegmund, Jonatan Frederik and Wiedermann, Marc and Donges, Jonathan Friedemann and Donner, Reik Volker}, title = {Impact of temperature and precipitation extremes on the flowering dates of four German wildlife shrub species}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {497}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40835}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408352}, pages = {15}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Ongoing climate change is known to cause an increase in the frequency and amplitude of local temperature and precipitation extremes in many regions of the Earth. While gradual changes in the climatological conditions have already been shown to strongly influence plant flowering dates, the question arises if and how extremes specifically impact the timing of this important phenological phase. Studying this question calls for the application of statistical methods that are tailored to the specific properties of event time series. Here, we employ event coincidence analysis, a novel statistical tool that allows assessing whether or not two types of events exhibit similar sequences of occurrences in order to systematically quantify simultaneities between meteorological extremes and the timing of the flowering of four shrub species across Germany. Our study confirms previous findings of experimental studies by highlighting the impact of early spring temperatures on the flowering of the investigated plants. However, previous studies solely based on correlation analysis do not allow deriving explicit estimates of the strength of such interdependencies without further assumptions, a gap that is closed by our analysis. In addition to direct impacts of extremely warm and cold spring temperatures, our analysis reveals statistically significant indications of an influence of temperature extremes in the autumn preceding the flowering.}, language = {en} } @misc{Wickert2016, author = {Wickert, Andrew D.}, title = {Open-source modular solutions for flexural isostasy}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {498}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40836}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408366}, pages = {21}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Isostasy is one of the oldest and most widely applied concepts in the geosciences, but the geoscientific community lacks a coherent, easy-to-use tool to simulate flexure of a realistic (i.e., laterally heterogeneous) lithosphere under an arbitrary set of surface loads. Such a model is needed for studies of mountain building, sedimentary basin formation, glaciation, sea-level change, and other tectonic, geodynamic, and surface processes. Here I present gFlex (for GNU flexure), an open-source model that can produce analytical and finite difference solutions for lithospheric flexure in one (profile) and two (map view) dimensions. To simulate the flexural isostatic response to an imposed load, it can be used by itself or within GRASS GIS for better integration with field data. gFlex is also a component with the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) and Landlab modeling frameworks for coupling with a wide range of Earth-surface-related models, and can be coupled to additional models within Python scripts. As an example of this in-script coupling, I simulate the effects of spatially variable lithospheric thickness on a modeled Iceland ice cap. Finite difference solutions in gFlex can use any of five types of boundary conditions: 0-displacement, 0-slope (i.e., clamped); 0-slope, 0-shear; 0-moment, 0-shear (i.e., broken plate); mirror symmetry; and periodic. Typical calculations with gFlex require << 1 s to similar to 1 min on a personal laptop computer. These characteristics - multiple ways to run the model, multiple solution methods, multiple boundary conditions, and short compute time - make gFlex an effective tool for flexural isostatic modeling across the geosciences.}, language = {en} } @misc{MuenchKipfstuhlFreitagetal.2016, author = {M{\"u}nch, Thomas and Kipfstuhl, Sepp and Freitag, Johannes and Meyer, Hanno and Laepple, Thomas}, title = {Regional climate signal vs. local noise}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {500}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40838}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408385}, pages = {17}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In low-accumulation regions, the reliability of delta O-18-derived temperature signals from ice cores within the Holocene is unclear, primarily due to the small climate changes relative to the intrinsic noise of the isotopic signal. In order to learn about the representativity of single ice cores and to optimise future ice-core-based climate reconstructions, we studied the stable-water isotope composition of firn at Kohnen Station, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. Analysing delta O-18 in two 50m long snow trenches allowed us to create an unprecedented, two-dimensional image characterising the isotopic variations from the centimetre to the 100-metre scale. Our results show seasonal layering of the isotopic composition but also high horizontal isotopic variability caused by local stratigraphic noise. Based on the horizontal and vertical structure of the isotopic variations, we derive a statistical noise model which successfully explains the trench data. The model further allows one to determine an upper bound for the reliability of climate reconstructions conducted in our study region at seasonal to annual resolution, depending on the number and the spacing of the cores taken.}, language = {en} } @misc{ClasonMairNienowetal.2015, author = {Clason, Caroline C. and Mair, D. W. F. and Nienow, P. W. and Bartholomew, I. D. and Sole, Andrew and Palmer, Steven and Schwanghart, Wolfgang}, title = {Modelling the transfer of supraglacial meltwater to the bed of Leverett Glacier, Southwest Greenland}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {513}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40905}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409053}, pages = {16}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Meltwater delivered to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet is a driver of variable ice-motion through changes in effective pressure and enhanced basal lubrication. Ice surface velocities have been shown to respond rapidly both to meltwater production at the surface and to drainage of supraglacial lakes, suggesting efficient transfer of meltwater from the supraglacial to subglacial hydrological systems. Although considerable effort is currently being directed towards improved modelling of the controlling surface and basal processes, modelling the temporal and spatial evolution of the transfer of melt to the bed has received less attention. Here we present the results of spatially distributed modelling for prediction of moulins and lake drainages on the Leverett Glacier in Southwest Greenland. The model is run for the 2009 and 2010 ablation seasons, and for future increased melt scenarios. The temporal pattern of modelled lake drainages are qualitatively comparable with those documented from analyses of repeat satellite imagery. The modelled timings and locations of delivery of meltwater to the bed also match well with observed temporal and spatial patterns of ice surface speed-ups. This is particularly true for the lower catchment (< 1000 m a.s.l.) where both the model and observations indicate that the development of moulins is the main mechanism for the transfer of surface meltwater to the bed. At higher elevations (e.g. 1250-1500 m a.s.l.) the development and drainage of supraglacial lakes becomes increasingly important. At these higher elevations, the delay between modelled melt generation and subsequent delivery of melt to the bed matches the observed delay between the peak air temperatures and subsequent velocity speed-ups, while the instantaneous transfer of melt to the bed in a control simulation does not. Although both moulins and lake drainages are predicted to increase in number for future warmer climate scenarios, the lake drainages play an increasingly important role in both expanding the area over which melt accesses the bed and in enabling a greater proportion of surface melt to reach the bed.}, language = {en} } @misc{AyzelIzhitskiy2018, author = {Ayzel, Georgy and Izhitskiy, Alexander}, title = {Coupling physically based and data-driven models for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {703}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42787}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-427873}, pages = {151 -- 158}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The Aral Sea desiccation and related changes in hydroclimatic conditions on a regional level is a hot topic for past decades. The key problem of scientific research projects devoted to an investigation of modern Aral Sea basin hydrological regime is its discontinuous nature - the only limited amount of papers takes into account the complex runoff formation system entirely. Addressing this challenge we have developed a continuous prediction system for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea based on coupling stack of hydrological and data-driven models. Results show a good prediction skill and approve the possibility to develop a valuable water assessment tool which utilizes the power of classical physically based and modern machine learning models both for territories with complex water management system and strong water-related data scarcity. The source code and data of the proposed system is available on a Github page (https://github.com/SMASHIproject/IWRM2018).}, language = {en} } @misc{XiongStollePark2018, author = {Xiong, Chao and Stolle, Claudia and Park, Jaeheung}, title = {Climatology of GPS signal loss observed by Swarm satellites}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {712}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42739}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-427391}, pages = {15}, year = {2018}, abstract = {By using 3-year global positioning system (GPS)measurements from December 2013 to November 2016, we provide in this study a detailed survey on the climatology of the GPS signal loss of Swarm onboard receivers. Our results show that the GPS signal losses prefer to occur at both low latitudes between ±5 and ±20 ◦ magnetic latitude (MLAT) and high latitudes above 60 ◦ MLAT in both hemispheres. These events at all latitudes are observed mainly during equinoxes and December solstice months, while totally absent during June solstice months. At low latitudes the GPS signal losses are caused by the equatorial plasma irregularities shortly after sunset, and at high latitude they are also highly related to the large density gradients associated with ionospheric irregularities. Additionally, the high-latitude events are more often observed in the Southern Hemisphere, occurring mainly at the cusp region and along nightside auroral latitudes. The signal losses mainly happen for those GPS rays with elevation angles less than 20 ◦ , and more commonly occur when the line of sight between GPS and Swarm satellites is aligned with the shell structure of plasma irregularities. Our results also confirm that the capability of the Swarm receiver has been improved after the bandwidth of the phase-locked loop (PLL) widened, but the updates cannot radically avoid the interruption in tracking GPS satellites caused by the ionospheric plasma irregularities. Additionally, after the PLL bandwidth increased larger than 0.5 Hz, some unexpected signal losses are observed even at middle latitudes, which are not related to the ionospheric plasma irregularities. Our results suggest that rather than 1.0 Hz, a PLL bandwidth of 0.5 Hz is a more suitable value for the Swarm receiver.}, language = {en} } @misc{CasadoLandaisPicardetal.2018, author = {Casado, Mathieu and Landais, Amaelle and Picard, Ghislain and M{\"u}nch, Thomas and Laepple, Thomas and Stenni, Barbara and Dreossi, Giuliano and Ekaykin, Alexey and Arnaud, Laurent and Genthon, Christophe and Touzeau, Alexandra and Masson-Delmotte, Valerie and Jouzel, Jean}, title = {Archival processes of the water stable isotope signal in East Antarctic ice cores}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {716}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42705}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-427054}, pages = {22}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The oldest ice core records are obtained from the East Antarctic Plateau. Water isotopes are key proxies to reconstructing past climatic conditions over the ice sheet and at the evaporation source. The accuracy of climate reconstructions depends on knowledge of all processes affecting water vapour, precipitation and snow isotopic compositions. Fractionation processes are well understood and can be integrated in trajectory-based Rayleigh distillation and isotope-enabled climate models. However, a quantitative understanding of processes potentially altering snow isotopic composition after deposition is still missing. In low-accumulation sites, such as those found in East Antarctica, these poorly constrained processes are likely to play a significant role and limit the interpretability of an ice core's isotopic composition. By combining observations of isotopic composition in vapour, precipitation, surface snow and buried snow from Dome C, a deep ice core site on the East Antarctic Plateau, we found indications of a seasonal impact of metamorphism on the surface snow isotopic signal when compared to the initial precipitation. Particularly in summer, exchanges of water molecules between vapour and snow are driven by the diurnal sublimation-condensation cycles. Overall, we observe in between precipitation events modification of the surface snow isotopic composition. Using high-resolution water isotopic composition profiles from snow pits at five Antarctic sites with different accumulation rates, we identified common patterns which cannot be attributed to the seasonal variability of precipitation. These differences in the precipitation, surface snow and buried snow isotopic composition provide evidence of post-deposition processes affecting ice core records in low-accumulation areas.}, language = {en} } @misc{MuddClubbGailletonetal.2018, author = {Mudd, Simon M. and Clubb, Fiona J. and Gailleton, Boris and Hurst, Martin D.}, title = {How concave are river channels?}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {718}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42699}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-426998}, pages = {19}, year = {2018}, abstract = {For over a century, geomorphologists have attempted to unravel information about landscape evolution, and processes that drive it, using river profiles. Many studies have combined new topographic datasets with theoretical models of channel incision to infer erosion rates, identify rock types with different resistance to erosion, and detect potential regions of tectonic activity. The most common metric used to analyse river profile geometry is channel steepness, or k(s). However, the calculation of channel steepness requires the normalisation of channel gradient by drainage area. This normalisation requires a power law exponent that is referred to as the channel concavity index. Despite the concavity index being crucial in determining channel steepness, it is challenging to constrain. In this contribution, we compare both slope-area methods for calculating the concavity index and methods based on integrating drainage area along the length of the channel, using so-called "chi" (chi) analysis. We present a new chi-based method which directly compares chi values of tributary nodes to those on the main stem; this method allows us to constrain the concavity index in transient landscapes without assuming a linear relationship between chi and elevation. Patterns of the concavity index have been linked to the ratio of the area and slope exponents of the stream power incision model (m/n); we therefore construct simple numerical models obeying detachment-limited stream power and test the different methods against simulations with imposed m and n. We find that chi-based methods are better than slope-area methods at reproducing imposed m/n ratios when our numerical landscapes are subject to either transient uplift or spatially varying uplift and fluvial erodibility. We also test our methods on several real landscapes, including sites with both lithological and structural heterogeneity, to provide examples of the methods' performance and limitations. These methods are made available in a new software package so that other workers can explore how the concavity index varies across diverse landscapes, with the aim to improve our understanding of the physics behind bedrock channel incision.}, language = {en} } @misc{SchwanghartScherler2017, author = {Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Scherler, Dirk}, title = {Bumps in river profiles}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {624}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41907}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419077}, pages = {19}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The analysis of longitudinal river profiles is an important tool for studying landscape evolution. However, characterizing river profiles based on digital elevation models (DEMs) suffers from errors and artifacts that particularly prevail along valley bottoms. The aim of this study is to characterize uncertainties that arise from the analysis of river profiles derived from different, near-globally available DEMs. We devised new algorithms quantile carving and the CRS algorithm - that rely on quantile regression to enable hydrological correction and the uncertainty quantification of river profiles. We find that globally available DEMs commonly overestimate river elevations in steep topography. The distributions of elevation errors become increasingly wider and right skewed if adjacent hillslope gradients are steep. Our analysis indicates that the AW3D DEM has the highest precision and lowest bias for the analysis of river profiles in mountainous topography. The new 12m resolution TanDEM-X DEM has a very low precision, most likely due to the combined effect of steep valley walls and the presence of water surfaces in valley bottoms. Compared to the conventional approaches of carving and filling, we find that our new approach is able to reduce the elevation bias and errors in longitudinal river profiles.}, language = {en} } @misc{MuenchKipfstuhlFreitagetal.2017, author = {M{\"u}nch, Thomas and Kipfstuhl, Sepp and Freitag, Johannes and Meyer, Hanno and Laepple, Thomas}, title = {Constraints on post-depositional isotope modifications in East Antarctic firn from analysing temporal changes of isotope profiles}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {662}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41876}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418763}, pages = {14}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The isotopic composition of water in ice sheets is extensively used to infer past climate changes. In low-accumulation regions their interpretation is, however, challenged by poorly constrained effects that may influence the initial isotope signal during and after deposition of the snow. This is reflected in snow-pit isotope data from Kohnen Station, Antarctica, which exhibit a seasonal cycle but also strong interannual variations that contradict local temperature observations. These inconsistencies persist even after averaging many profiles and are thus not explained by local stratigraphic noise. Previous studies have suggested that post-depositional processes may significantly influence the isotopic composition of East Antarctic firn. Here, we investigate the importance of post-depositional processes within the open-porous firn (greater than or similar to 10 cm depth) at Kohnen Station by separating spatial from temporal variability. To this end, we analyse 22 isotope profiles obtained from two snow trenches and examine the temporal isotope modifications by comparing the new data with published trench data extracted 2 years earlier. The initial isotope profiles undergo changes over time due to downward advection, firn diffusion and densification in magnitudes consistent with independent estimates. Beyond that, we find further modifications of the original isotope record to be unlikely or small in magnitude (<< 1 parts per thousand RMSD). These results show that the discrepancy between local temperatures and isotopes most likely originates from spatially coherent processes prior to or during deposition, such as precipitation intermittency or systematic isotope modifications acting on drifting or loose surface snow.}, language = {en} } @misc{MolnosMamdouhPetrietal.2017, author = {Molnos, Sonja and Mamdouh, Tarek and Petri, Stefan and Nocke, Thomas and Weinkauf, Tino and Coumou, Dim}, title = {A network-based detection scheme for the jet stream core}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {625}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41909}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419099}, pages = {75 -- 89}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The polar and subtropical jet streams are strong upper-level winds with a crucial influence on weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In particular, the polar jet is located between cold arctic air to the north and warmer subtropical air to the south. Strongly meandering states therefore often lead to extreme surface weather. Some algorithms exist which can detect the 2-D (latitude and longitude) jets' core around the hemisphere, but all of them use a minimal threshold to determine the subtropical and polar jet stream. This is particularly problematic for the polar jet stream, whose wind velocities can change rapidly from very weak to very high values and vice versa. We develop a network-based scheme using Dijkstra's shortest-path algorithm to detect the polar and subtropical jet stream core. This algorithm not only considers the commonly used wind strength for core detection but also takes wind direction and climatological latitudinal position into account. Furthermore, it distinguishes between polar and subtropical jet, and between separate and merged jet states. The parameter values of the detection scheme are optimized using simulated annealing and a skill function that accounts for the zonal-mean jet stream position (Rikus, 2015). After the successful optimization process, we apply our scheme to reanalysis data covering 1979-2015 and calculate seasonal-mean probabilistic maps and trends in wind strength and position of jet streams. We present longitudinally defined probability distributions of the positions for both jets for all on the Northern Hemisphere seasons. This shows that winter is characterized by two well-separated jets over Europe and Asia (ca. 20 degrees W to 140 degrees E). In contrast, summer normally has a single merged jet over the western hemisphere but can have both merged and separated jet states in the eastern hemisphere. With this algorithm it is possible to investigate the position of the jets' cores around the hemisphere and it is therefore very suitable to analyze jet stream patterns in observations and models, enabling more advanced model-validation.}, language = {en} } @misc{GuentnerReichMikolajetal.2017, author = {G{\"u}ntner, Andreas and Reich, Marvin and Mikolaj, Michal and Creutzfeldt, Benjamin and Schroeder, Stephan and Wziontek, Hartmut}, title = {Landscape-scale water balance monitoring with an iGrav superconducting gravimeter in a field enclosure}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {663}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41910}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419105}, pages = {16}, year = {2017}, abstract = {In spite of the fundamental role of the landscape water balance for the Earth's water and energy cycles, monitoring the water balance and its components beyond the point scale is notoriously difficult due to the multitude of flow and storage processes and their spatial heterogeneity. Here, we present the first field deployment of an iGrav superconducting gravimeter (SG) in a minimized enclosure for long-term integrative monitoring of water storage changes. Results of the field SG on a grassland site under wet-temperate climate conditions were compared to data provided by a nearby SG located in the controlled environment of an observatory building. The field system proves to provide gravity time series that are similarly precise as those of the observatory SG. At the same time, the field SG is more sensitive to hydrological variations than the observatory SG. We demonstrate that the gravity variations observed by the field setup are almost independent of the depth below the terrain surface where water storage changes occur (contrary to SGs in buildings), and thus the field SG system directly observes the total water storage change, i.e., the water balance, in its surroundings in an integrative way. We provide a framework to single out the water balance components actual evapotranspiration and lateral subsurface discharge from the gravity time series on annual to daily timescales. With about 99 and 85\% of the gravity signal due to local water storage changes originating within a radius of 4000 and 200m around the instrument, respectively, this setup paves the road towards gravimetry as a continuous hydrological field-monitoring technique at the landscape scale.}, language = {en} } @misc{AngermannJackischAllroggenetal.2017, author = {Angermann, Lisa and Jackisch, Conrad and Allroggen, Niklas and Sprenger, Matthias and Zehe, Erwin and Tronicke, Jens and Weiler, Markus and Blume, Theresa}, title = {Form and function in hillslope hydrology}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {658}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41916}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419161}, pages = {22}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The phrase form and function was established in architecture and biology and refers to the idea that form and functionality are closely correlated, influence each other, and co-evolve. We suggest transferring this idea to hydrological systems to separate and analyze their two main characteristics: their form, which is equivalent to the spatial structure and static properties, and their function, equivalent to internal responses and hydrological behavior. While this approach is not particularly new to hydrological field research, we want to employ this concept to explicitly pursue the question of what information is most advantageous to understand a hydrological system. We applied this concept to subsurface flow within a hillslope, with a methodological focus on function: we conducted observations during a natural storm event and followed this with a hillslope-scale irrigation experiment. The results are used to infer hydrological processes of the monitored system. Based on these findings, the explanatory power and conclusiveness of the data are discussed. The measurements included basic hydrological monitoring methods, like piezometers, soil moisture, and discharge measurements. These were accompanied by isotope sampling and a novel application of 2-D time-lapse GPR (ground-penetrating radar). The main finding regarding the processes in the hillslope was that preferential flow paths were established quickly, despite unsaturated conditions. These flow paths also caused a detectable signal in the catchment response following a natural rainfall event, showing that these processes are relevant also at the catchment scale. Thus, we conclude that response observations (dynamics and patterns, i.e., indicators of function) were well suited to describing processes at the observational scale. Especially the use of 2-D time-lapse GPR measurements, providing detailed subsurface response patterns, as well as the combination of stream-centered and hillslope-centered approaches, allowed us to link processes and put them in a larger context. Transfer to other scales beyond observational scale and generalizations, however, rely on the knowledge of structures (form) and remain speculative. The complementary approach with a methodological focus on form (i.e., structure exploration) is presented and discussed in the companion paper by Jackisch et al. (2017).}, language = {en} } @misc{RachKahmenBraueretal.2017, author = {Rach, Oliver and Kahmen, Ansgar and Brauer, Achim and Sachse, Dirk}, title = {A dual-biomarker approach for quantification of changes in relative humidity from sedimentary lipid D/H ratios}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {660}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41873}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418731}, pages = {17}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Past climatic change can be reconstructed from sedimentary archives by a number of proxies. However, few methods exist to directly estimate hydrological changes and even fewer result in quantitative data, impeding our understanding of the timing, magnitude and mechanisms of hydrological changes. Here we present a novel approach based on delta H-2 values of sedimentary lipid biomarkers in combination with plant physiological modeling to extract quantitative information on past changes in relative humidity. Our initial application to an annually laminated lacustrine sediment sequence from western Europe deposited during the Younger Dryas cold period revealed relative humidity changes of up to 15\% over sub-centennial timescales, leading to major ecosystem changes, in agreement with palynological data from the region. We show that by combining organic geochemical methods and mechanistic plant physiological models on well characterized lacustrine archives it is possible to extract quantitative ecohydrological parameters from sedimentary lipid biomarker delta H-2 data.}, language = {en} } @misc{CohenCampisanoArrowsmithetal.2016, author = {Cohen, Abby and Campisano, Christopher and Arrowsmith, J. Ramon and Asrat, Asfawossen and Behrensmeyer, A. K. and Deino, A. and Feibel, C. and Hill, A. and Johnson, R. and Kingston, J. and Lamb, Henry F. and Lowenstein, T. and Noren, A. and Olago, D. and Owen, Richard Bernhart and Potts, R. and Reed, Kate and Renaut, R. and Sch{\"a}bitz, F. and Tiercelin, J.-J. and Trauth, Martin H. and Wynn, J. and Ivory, S. and Brady, K. and O'Grady, R. and Rodysill, J. and Githiri, J. and Russell, Joellen and Foerster, Verena and Dommain, Ren{\´e} and Rucina, J. S. and Deocampo, D. and Russell, J. and Billingsley, A. and Beck, C. and Dorenbeck, G. and Dullo, L. and Feary, D. and Garello, D. and Gromig, R. and Johnson, T. and Junginger, Annett and Karanja, M. and Kimburi, E. and Mbuthia, A. and McCartney, Tannis and McNulty, E. and Muiruri, V. and Nambiro, E. and Negash, E. W. and Njagi, D. and Wilson, J. N. and Rabideaux, N. and Raub, Timothy and Sier, Mark Jan and Smith, P. and Urban, J. and Warren, M. and Yadeta, M. and Yost, Chad and Zinaye, B.}, title = {The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {611}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41249}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412498}, pages = {16}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The role that climate and environmental history may have played in influencing human evolution has been the focus of considerable interest and controversy among paleoanthropologists for decades. Prior attempts to understand the environmental history side of this equation have centered around the study of outcrop sediments and fossils adjacent to where fossil hominins (ancestors or close relatives of modern humans) are found, or from the study of deep sea drill cores. However, outcrop sediments are often highly weathered and thus are unsuitable for some types of paleoclimatic records, and deep sea core records come from long distances away from the actual fossil and stone tool remains. The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) was developed to address these issues. The project has focused its efforts on the eastern African Rift Valley, where much of the evidence for early hominins has been recovered. We have collected about 2 km of sediment drill core from six basins in Kenya and Ethiopia, in lake deposits immediately adjacent to important fossil hominin and archaeological sites. Collectively these cores cover in time many of the key transitions and critical intervals in human evolutionary history over the last 4 Ma, such as the earliest stone tools, the origin of our own genus Homo, and the earliest anatomically modern Homo sapiens. Here we document the initial field, physical property, and core description results of the 2012-2014 HSPDP coring campaign.}, language = {en} } @misc{MeyerSchwanghartKorupetal.2015, author = {Meyer, Nele Kristin and Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Korup, Oliver and Nadim, F.}, title = {Roads at risk}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {519}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40958}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409586}, pages = {11}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Globalisation and interregional exchange of people, goods, and services has boosted the importance of and reliance on all kinds of transport networks. The linear structure of road networks is especially sensitive to natural hazards. In southern Norway, steep topography and extreme weather events promote frequent traffic disruption caused by debris flows. Topographic susceptibility and trigger frequency maps serve as input into a hazard appraisal at the scale of first-order catchments to quantify the impact of debris flows on the road network in terms of a failure likelihood of each link connecting two network vertices, e.g. road junctions. We compute total additional traffic loads as a function of traffic volume and excess distance, i.e. the extra length of an alternative path connecting two previously disrupted network vertices using a shortest-path algorithm. Our risk metric of link failure is the total additional annual traffic load, expressed as vehicle kilometres, because of debris-flow-related road closures. We present two scenarios demonstrating the impact of debris flows on the road network and quantify the associated path-failure likelihood between major cities in southern Norway. The scenarios indicate that major routes crossing the central and north-western part of the study area are associated with high link-failure risk. Yet options for detours on major routes are manifold and incur only little additional costs provided that drivers are sufficiently well informed about road closures. Our risk estimates may be of importance to road network managers and transport companies relying on speedy delivery of services and goods.}, language = {en} } @misc{BubeckAertsdeMoeletal.2016, author = {Bubeck, Philip and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. and de Moel, Hans and Kreibich, Heidi}, title = {Preface}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {609}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41238}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412387}, pages = {6}, year = {2016}, abstract = {kein abstract}, language = {en} } @misc{FritzOpelTanskietal.2015, author = {Fritz, Michael and Opel, Thomas and Tanski, George and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Meyer, Hanno and Eulenburg, A. and Lantuit, Hugues}, title = {Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Arctic ground ice}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {493}, issn = {1866-8372}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408155}, pages = {16}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Thermal permafrost degradation and coastal erosion in the Arctic remobilize substantial amounts of organic carbon (OC) and nutrients which have accumulated in late Pleistocene and Holocene unconsolidated deposits. Permafrost vulnerability to thaw subsidence, collapsing coastlines and irreversible landscape change are largely due to the presence of large amounts of massive ground ice such as ice wedges. However, ground ice has not, until now, been considered to be a source of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and other elements which are important for ecosystems and carbon cycling. Here we show, using biogeochemical data from a large number of different ice bodies throughout the Arctic, that ice wedges have the greatest potential for DOC storage, with a maximum of 28.6 mg L-1 (mean: 9.6 mg L-1). Variation in DOC concentration is positively correlated with and explained by the concentrations and relative amounts of typically terrestrial cations such as Mg2+ and K+. DOC sequestration into ground ice was more effective during the late Pleistocene than during the Holocene, which can be explained by rapid sediment and OC accumulation, the prevalence of more easily degradable vegetation and immediate incorporation into permafrost. We assume that pristine snowmelt is able to leach considerable amounts of well-preserved and highly bioavailable DOC as well as other elements from surface sediments, which are rapidly frozen and stored in ground ice, especially in ice wedges, even before further degradation. We found that ice wedges in the Yedoma region represent a significant DOC (45.2 Tg) and DIC (33.6 Tg) pool in permafrost areas and a freshwater reservoir of 4200 km(2). This study underlines the need to discriminate between particulate OC and DOC to assess the availability and vulnerability of the permafrost car-bon pool for ecosystems and climate feedback upon mobilization.}, language = {en} } @misc{ManzoniČapekPoradaetal.2018, author = {Manzoni, Stefano and Čapek, Petr and Porada, Philipp and Thurner, Martin and Winterdahl, Mattias and Beer, Christian and Br{\"u}chert, Volker and Frouz, Jan and Herrmann, Anke M. and Lindahl, Bj{\"o}rn D. and Lyon, Steve W. and Šantrůčkov{\´a}, Hana and Vico, Giulia and Way, Danielle}, title = {Reviews and syntheses}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1134}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-44638}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446386}, pages = {23}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The cycling of carbon (C) between the Earth surface and the atmosphere is controlled by biological and abiotic processes that regulate C storage in biogeochemical compartments and release to the atmosphere. This partitioning is quantified using various forms of C-use efficiency (CUE) - the ratio of C remaining in a system to C entering that system. Biological CUE is the fraction of C taken up allocated to biosynthesis. In soils and sediments, C storage depends also on abiotic processes, so the term C-storage efficiency (CSE) can be used. Here we first review and reconcile CUE and CSE definitions proposed for autotrophic and heterotrophic organisms and communities, food webs, whole ecosystems and watersheds, and soils and sediments using a common mathematical framework. Second, we identify general CUE patterns; for example, the actual CUE increases with improving growth conditions, and apparent CUE decreases with increasing turnover. We then synthesize > 5000CUE estimates showing that CUE decreases with increasing biological and ecological organization - from uni-cellular to multicellular organisms and from individuals to ecosystems. We conclude that CUE is an emergent property of coupled biological-abiotic systems, and it should be regarded as a flexible and scale-dependent index of the capacity of a given system to effectively retain C.}, language = {en} } @misc{SmithBookhagenCannon2015, author = {Smith, Taylor and Bookhagen, Bodo and Cannon, Forest}, title = {Improving semi-automated glacier mapping with a multi-method approach}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {510}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40847}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408471}, pages = {13}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Studies of glaciers generally require precise glacier outlines. Where these are not available, extensive manual digitization in a geographic information system (GIS) must be performed, as current algorithms struggle to delineate glacier areas with debris cover or other irregular spectral profiles. Although several approaches have improved upon spectral band ratio delineation of glacier areas, none have entered wide use due to complexity or computational intensity. In this study, we present and apply a glacier mapping algorithm in Central Asia which delineates both clean glacier ice and debris-covered glacier tongues. The algorithm is built around the unique velocity and topographic characteristics of glaciers and further leverages spectral and spatial relationship data. We found that the algorithm misclassifies between 2 and 10\% of glacier areas, as compared to a similar to 750 glacier control data set, and can reliably classify a given Landsat scene in 3-5 min. The algorithm does not completely solve the difficulties inherent in classifying glacier areas from remotely sensed imagery but does represent a significant improvement over purely spectral-based classification schemes, such as the band ratio of Landsat 7 bands three and five or the normalized difference snow index. The main caveats of the algorithm are (1) classification errors at an individual glacier level, (2) reliance on manual intervention to separate connected glacier areas, and (3) dependence on fidelity of the input Landsat data.}, language = {en} } @misc{SchleussnerLissnerFischeretal.2016, author = {Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Lissner, Tabea Katharina and Fischer, Erich M. and Wohland, Jan and Perrette, Mah{\´e} and Golly, Antonius and Rogelj, Joeri and Childers, Katelin and Schewe, Jacob and Frieler, Katja and Mengel, Matthias and Hare, William and Schaeffer, Michiel}, title = {Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming}, series = {Earth System Dynamics}, journal = {Earth System Dynamics}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410258}, pages = {25}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 degrees C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 degrees C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90\% in 2050 and projected to decline to 70\% by 2100 for a 1.5 degrees C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9\% to 17\% between 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11\%. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2 degrees C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5 degrees C scenario. In a 1.5 degrees C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30\% compared to a 2 degrees C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming.}, language = {en} } @misc{PrahlRybskiBurghoffetal.2015, author = {Prahl, Boris F. and Rybski, Diego and Burghoff, Olaf and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Comparison of storm damage functions and their performance}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {492}, issn = {1866-8372}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408119}, pages = {20}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Winter storms are the most costly natural hazard for European residential property. We compare four distinct storm damage functions with respect to their forecast accuracy and variability, with particular regard to the most severe winter storms. The analysis focuses on daily loss estimates under differing spatial aggregation, ranging from district to country level. We discuss the broad and heavily skewed distribution of insured losses posing difficulties for both the calibration and the evaluation of damage functions. From theoretical considerations, we provide a synthesis between the frequently discussed cubic wind-damage relationship and recent studies that report much steeper damage functions for European winter storms. The performance of the storm loss models is evaluated for two sources of wind gust data, direct observations by the German Weather Service and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. While the choice of gust data has little impact on the evaluation of German storm loss, spatially resolved coefficients of variation reveal dependence between model and data choice. The comparison shows that the probabilistic models by Heneka et al. (2006) and Prahl et al. (2012) both provide accurate loss predictions for moderate to extreme losses, with generally small coefficients of variation. We favour the latter model in terms of model applicability. Application of the versatile deterministic model by Klawa and Ulbrich (2003) should be restricted to extreme loss, for which it shows the least bias and errors comparable to the probabilistic model by Prahl et al. (2012).}, language = {en} } @misc{KreibichMuellerSchroeteretal.2017, author = {Kreibich, Heidi and M{\"u}ller, Meike and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Thieken, Annegret}, title = {New insights into flood warning reception and emergency response by affected parties}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {659}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41838}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418381}, pages = {18}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Flood damage can be mitigated if the parties at risk are reached by flood warnings and if they know how to react appropriately. To gain more knowledge about warning reception and emergency response of private households and companies, surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany. Despite pronounced regional differences, the results show a clear overall picture: in 2002, early warnings did not work well; e.g. many households (27 \%) and companies (45 \%) stated that they had not received any flood warnings. Additionally, the preparedness of private households and companies was low in 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. After the 2002 flood, many initiatives were launched and investments undertaken to improve flood risk management, including early warnings and an emergency response in Germany. In 2013, only a small share of the affected households (5 \%) and companies (3 \%) were not reached by any warnings. Additionally, private households and companies were better prepared. For instance, the share of companies which have an emergency plan in place has increased from 10\% in 2002 to 34\% in 2013. However, there is still room for improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication. The challenge is to continuously maintain and advance an integrated early warning and emergency response system even without the occurrence of extreme floods.}, language = {en} } @misc{LaudanRoezerSiegetal.2017, author = {Laudan, Jonas and R{\"o}zer, Viktor and Sieg, Tobias and Vogel, Kristin and Thieken, Annegret}, title = {Damage assessment in Braunsbach 2016}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {653}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41839}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418392}, pages = {17}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Flash floods are caused by intense rainfall events and represent an insufficiently understood phenomenon in Germany. As a result of higher precipitation intensities, flash floods might occur more frequently in future. In combination with changing land use patterns and urbanisation, damage mitigation, insurance and risk management in flash-flood-prone regions are becoming increasingly important. However, a better understanding of damage caused by flash floods requires ex post collection of relevant but yet sparsely available information for research. At the end of May 2016, very high and concentrated rainfall intensities led to severe flash floods in several southern German municipalities. The small town of Braunsbach stood as a prime example of the devastating potential of such events. Eight to ten days after the flash flood event, damage assessment and data collection were conducted in Braunsbach by investigating all affected buildings and their surroundings. To record and store the data on site, the open-source software bundle KoBoCollect was used as an efficient and easy way to gather information. Since the damage driving factors of flash floods are expected to differ from those of riverine flooding, a post-hoc data analysis was performed, aiming to identify the influence of flood processes and building attributes on damage grades, which reflect the extent of structural damage. Data analyses include the application of random forest, a random general linear model and multinomial logistic regression as well as the construction of a local impact map to reveal influences on the damage grades. Further, a Spearman's Rho correlation matrix was calculated. The results reveal that the damage driving factors of flash floods differ from those of riverine floods to a certain extent. The exposition of a building in flow direction shows an especially strong correlation with the damage grade and has a high predictive power within the constructed damage models. Additionally, the results suggest that building materials as well as various building aspects, such as the existence of a shop window and the surroundings, might have an effect on the resulting damage. To verify and confirm the outcomes as well as to support future mitigation strategies, risk management and planning, more comprehensive and systematic data collection is necessary.}, language = {en} } @misc{KellermannSchoenbergerThieken2016, author = {Kellermann, Patric and Sch{\"o}nberger, Christine and Thieken, Annegret}, title = {Large-scale application of the flood damage model RAilway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL)}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {555}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41191}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-411915}, pages = {15}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Experience has shown that river floods can significantly hamper the reliability of railway networks and cause extensive structural damage and disruption. As a result, the national railway operator in Austria had to cope with financial losses of more than EUR 100 million due to flooding in recent years. Comprehensive information on potential flood risk hot spots as well as on expected flood damage in Austria is therefore needed for strategic flood risk management. In view of this, the flood damage model RAIL (RAilway Infrastructure Loss) was applied to estimate (1) the expected structural flood damage and (2) the resulting repair costs of railway infrastructure due to a 30-, 100- and 300-year flood in the Austrian Mur River catchment. The results were then used to calculate the expected annual damage of the railway subnetwork and subsequently analysed in terms of their sensitivity to key model assumptions. Additionally, the impact of risk aversion on the estimates was investigated, and the overall results were briefly discussed against the background of climate change and possibly resulting changes in flood risk. The findings indicate that the RAIL model is capable of supporting decision-making in risk management by providing comprehensive risk information on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that an increased risk aversion of the railway operator has a marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies.}, language = {en} } @misc{KellermannSchoebelKundelaetal.2015, author = {Kellermann, Patric and Sch{\"o}bel, A. and Kundela, G. and Thieken, Annegret}, title = {Estimating flood damage to railway infrastructure}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {504}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40842}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408429}, pages = {12}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Models for estimating flood losses to infrastructure are rare and their reliability is seldom investigated although infrastructure losses might contribute considerably to the overall flood losses. In this paper, an empirical modelling approach for estimating direct structural flood damage to railway infrastructure and associated financial losses is presented. Via a combination of event data, i.e. photo-documented damage on the Northern Railway in Lower Austria caused by the March River flood in 2006, and simulated flood characteristics, i.e. water levels, flow velocities and combinations thereof, the correlations between physical flood impact parameters and damage occurred to the railway track were investigated and subsequently rendered into a damage model. After calibrating the loss estimation using recorded repair costs of the Austrian Federal Railways, the model was applied to three synthetic scenarios with return periods of 30, 100 and 300 years of March River flooding. Finally, the model results are compared to depth-damage-curve-based approaches for the infrastructure sector obtained from the Rhine Atlas damage model and the Damage Scanner model. The results of this case study indicate a good performance of our two-stage model approach. However, due to a lack of independent event and damage data, the model could not yet be validated. Future research in natural risk should focus on the development of event and damage documentation procedures to overcome this significant hurdle in flood damage modelling.}, language = {en} } @misc{MysiakSurminskiThiekenetal.2016, author = {Mysiak, Jaroslav and Surminski, Swenja and Thieken, Annegret and Mechler, Reinhard and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.}, title = {Brief communication}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {524}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41014}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410149}, pages = {5}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) was adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, 14-18 March 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SF-DRR) and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.}, language = {en} } @misc{LevermannWinkelmann2016, author = {Levermann, Anders and Winkelmann, Ricarda}, title = {A simple equation for the melt elevation feedback of ice sheets}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {529}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40983}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409834}, pages = {9}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass and has thereby contributed to global sea-level rise. The rate of ice loss is highly relevant for coastal protection worldwide. The ice loss is likely to increase under future warming. Beyond a critical temperature threshold, a meltdown of the Greenland Ice Sheet is induced by the self-enforcing feedback between its lowering surface elevation and its increasing surface mass loss: the more ice that is lost, the lower the ice surface and the warmer the surface air temperature, which fosters further melting and ice loss. The computation of this rate so far relies on complex numerical models which are the appropriate tools for capturing the complexity of the problem. By contrast we aim here at gaining a conceptual understanding by deriving a purposefully simple equation for the self-enforcing feedback which is then used to estimate the melt time for different levels of warming using three observable characteristics of the ice sheet itself and its surroundings. The analysis is purely conceptual in nature. It is missing important processes like ice dynamics for it to be useful for applications to sea-level rise on centennial timescales, but if the volume loss is dominated by the feedback, the resulting logarithmic equation unifies existing numerical simulations and shows that the melt time depends strongly on the level of warming with a critical slow-down near the threshold: the median time to lose 10\% of the present-day ice volume varies between about 3500 years for a temperature level of 0.5 degrees C above the threshold and 500 years for 5 degrees C. Unless future observations show a significantly higher melting sensitivity than currently observed, a complete meltdown is unlikely within the next 2000 years without significant ice-dynamical contributions.}, language = {en} } @misc{TostEhmelHeidmannetal.2018, author = {Tost, Jordi and Ehmel, Fabian and Heidmann, Frank and Olen, Stephanie M. and Bookhagen, Bodo}, title = {Hazards and accessibility}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {710}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42785}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-427853}, pages = {8}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The assessment of natural hazards and risk has traditionally been built upon the estimation of threat maps, which are used to depict potential danger posed by a particular hazard throughout a given area. But when a hazard event strikes, infrastructure is a significant factor that can determine if the situation becomes a disaster. The vulnerability of the population in a region does not only depend on the area's local threat, but also on the geographical accessibility of the area. This makes threat maps by themselves insufficient for supporting real-time decision-making, especially for those tasks that involve the use of the road network, such as management of relief operations, aid distribution, or planning of evacuation routes, among others. To overcome this problem, this paper proposes a multidisciplinary approach divided in two parts. First, data fusion of satellite-based threat data and open infrastructure data from OpenStreetMap, introducing a threat-based routing service. Second, the visualization of this data through cartographic generalization and schematization. This emphasizes critical areas along roads in a simple way and allows users to visually evaluate the impact natural hazards may have on infrastructure. We develop and illustrate this methodology with a case study of landslide threat for an area in Colombia.}, language = {en} } @misc{PrahlRybskiBoettleetal.2016, author = {Prahl, Boris F. and Rybski, Diego and Boettle, Markus and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Damage functions for climate-related hazards}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {534}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41018}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410184}, pages = {15}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Most climate change impacts manifest in the form of natural hazards. Damage assessment typically relies on damage functions that translate the magnitude of extreme events to a quantifiable damage. In practice, the availability of damage functions is limited due to a lack of data sources and a lack of understanding of damage processes. The study of the characteristics of damage functions for different hazards could strengthen the theoretical foundation of damage functions and support their development and validation. Accordingly, we investigate analogies of damage functions for coastal flooding and for wind storms and identify a unified approach. This approach has general applicability for granular portfolios and may also be applied, for example, to heat-related mortality. Moreover, the unification enables the transfer of methodology between hazards and a consistent treatment of uncertainty. This is demonstrated by a sensitivity analysis on the basis of two simple case studies (for coastal flood and storm damage). The analysis reveals the relevance of the various uncertainty sources at varying hazard magnitude and on both the microscale and the macroscale level. Main findings are the dominance of uncertainty from the hazard magnitude and the persistent behaviour of intrinsic uncertainties on both scale levels. Our results shed light on the general role of uncertainties and provide useful insight for the application of the unified approach.}, language = {en} } @misc{BoettleRybskiKropp2016, author = {Boettle, Markus and Rybski, Diego and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Quantifying the effect of sea level rise and flood defence}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {559}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41240}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412405}, pages = {18}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In contrast to recent advances in projecting sea levels, estimations about the economic impact of sea level rise are vague. Nonetheless, they are of great importance for policy making with regard to adaptation and greenhouse-gas mitigation. Since the damage is mainly caused by extreme events, we propose a stochastic framework to estimate the monetary losses from coastal floods in a confined region. For this purpose, we follow a Peak-over-Threshold approach employing a Poisson point process and the Generalised Pareto Distribution. By considering the effect of sea level rise as well as potential adaptation scenarios on the involved parameters, we are able to study the development of the annual damage. An application to the city of Copenhagen shows that a doubling of losses can be expected from a mean sea level increase of only 11 cm. In general, we find that for varying parameters the expected losses can be well approximated by one of three analytical expressions depending on the extreme value parameters. These findings reveal the complex interplay of the involved parameters and allow conclusions of fundamental relevance. For instance, we show that the damage typically increases faster than the sea level rise itself. This in turn can be of great importance for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on the global scale. Our results are accompanied by an assessment of uncertainty, which reflects the stochastic nature of extreme events. While the absolute value of uncertainty about the flood damage increases with rising mean sea levels, we find that it decreases in relation to the expected damage.}, language = {en} } @misc{GholamrezaieScheckWenderothSippeletal.2018, author = {Gholamrezaie, Ershad and Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena and Sippel, Judith and Strecker, Manfred}, title = {Variability of the geothermal gradient across two differently aged magma-rich continental rifted margins of the Atlantic Ocean}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsadm : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsadm : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {621}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41821}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418210}, pages = {20}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The aim of this study is to investigate the shal- low thermal field differences for two differently aged pas- sive continental margins by analyzing regional variations in geothermal gradient and exploring the controlling factors for these variations. Hence, we analyzed two previously pub- lished 3-D conductive and lithospheric-scale thermal models of the Southwest African and the Norwegian passive mar- gins. These 3-D models differentiate various sedimentary, crustal, and mantle units and integrate different geophysi- cal data such as seismic observations and the gravity field. We extracted the temperature-depth distributions in 1 km intervals down to 6 km below the upper thermal boundary condition. The geothermal gradient was then calculated for these intervals between the upper thermal boundary condi- tion and the respective depth levels (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 km below the upper thermal boundary condition). According to our results, the geothermal gradient decreases with increas- ing depth and shows varying lateral trends and values for these two different margins. We compare the 3-D geologi- cal structural models and the geothermal gradient variations for both thermal models and show how radiogenic heat pro- duction, sediment insulating effect, and thermal lithosphere- asthenosphere boundary (LAB) depth influence the shallow thermal field pattern. The results indicate an ongoing process of oceanic mantle cooling at the young Norwegian margin compared with the old SW African passive margin that seems to be thermally equilibrated in the present day.}, language = {en} } @misc{ZimmermannRaschkeEppetal.2017, author = {Zimmermann, Heike Hildegard and Raschke, Elena and Epp, Laura Saskia and Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie and Schwamborn, Georg and Schirrmeister, Lutz and Overduin, Pier Paul and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Sedimentary ancient DNA and pollen reveal the composition of plant organic matter in Late Quaternary permafrost sediments of the Buor Khaya Peninsula (north-eastern Siberia)}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {670}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41713}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-417130}, pages = {22}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Organic matter deposited in ancient, ice-rich permafrost sediments is vulnerable to climate change and may contribute to the future release of greenhouse gases; it is thus important to get a better characterization of the plant organic matter within such sediments. From a Late Quaternary permafrost sediment core from the Buor Khaya Peninsula, we analysed plant-derived sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) to identify the taxonomic composition of plant organic matter, and undertook palynological analysis to assess the environmental conditions during deposition. Using sedaDNA, we identified 154 taxa and from pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs we identified 83 taxa. In the deposits dated between 54 and 51 kyr BP, sedaDNA records a diverse low-centred polygon plant community including recurring aquatic pond vegetation while from the pollen record we infer terrestrial open-land vegetation with relatively dry environmental conditions at a regional scale. A fluctuating dominance of either terrestrial or swamp and aquatic taxa in both proxies allowed the local hydrological development of the polygon to be traced. In deposits dated between 11.4 and 9.7 kyr BP (13.4-11.1 cal kyr BP), sedaDNA shows a taxonomic turnover to moist shrub tundra and a lower taxonomic richness compared to the older samples. Pollen also records a shrub tundra community, mostly seen as changes in relative proportions of the most dominant taxa, while a decrease in taxonomic richness was less pronounced compared to sedaDNA. Our results show the advantages of using sedaDNA in combination with palynological analyses when macrofossils are rarely preserved. The high resolution of the sedaDNA record provides a detailed picture of the taxonomic composition of plant-derived organic matter throughout the core, and palynological analyses prove valuable by allowing for inferences of regional environmental conditions.}, language = {en} } @misc{StraussSchirrmeisterMangelsdorfetal.2015, author = {Strauss, Jens and Schirrmeister, Lutz and Mangelsdorf, Kai and Eichhorn, L. and Wetterich, Sebastian and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Organic-matter quality of deep permafrost carbon}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {514}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40953}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409534}, pages = {19}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The organic-carbon (OC) pool accumulated in Arctic permafrost (perennially frozen ground) equals the carbon stored in the modern atmosphere. To give an idea of how Yedoma region permafrost could respond under future climatic warming, we conducted a study to quantify the organic-matter quality (here defined as the intrinsic potential to be further transformed, decomposed, and mineralized) of late Pleistocene (Yedoma) and Holocene (thermokarst) deposits on the Buor-Khaya Peninsula, northeast Siberia. The objective of this study was to develop a stratigraphic classified organic-matter quality characterization. For this purpose the degree of organic-matter decomposition was estimated by using a multiproxy approach. We applied sedimentological (grain-size analyses, bulk density, ice content) and geochemical parameters (total OC, stable carbon isotopes (delta C-13),total organic carbon : nitrogen (C / N) ratios) as well as lipid biomarkers (n-alkanes, n-fatty acids, hopanes, triterpenoids, and biomarker indices, i.e., average chain length, carbon preference index (CPI), and higher-plant fatty-acid index (HPFA)). Our results show that the Yedoma and thermokarst organic-matter qualities for further decomposition exhibit no obvious degradation-depth trend. Relatively, the C / N and delta C-13 values and the HPFA index show a significantly better preservation of the organic matter stored in thermokarst deposits compared to Yedoma deposits. The CPI data suggest less degradation of the organic matter from both deposits, with a higher value for Yedoma organic matter. As the interquartile ranges of the proxies mostly over-lap, we interpret this as indicating comparable quality for further decomposition for both kinds of deposits with likely better thermokarst organic-matter quality. Supported by principal component analyses, the sediment parameters and quality proxies of Yedoma and thermokarst deposits could not be unambiguously separated from each other. This revealed that the organic-matter vulnerability is heterogeneous and depends on different decomposition trajectories and the previous decomposition and preservation history. Elucidating this was one of the major new contributions of our multiproxy study. With the addition of biomarker data, it was possible to show that permafrost organic-matter degradation likely occurs via a combination of (uncompleted) degradation cycles or a cascade of degradation steps rather than as a linear function of age or sediment facies. We conclude that the amount of organic matter in the studied sediments is high for mineral soils and of good quality and therefore susceptible to future decomposition. The lack of depth trends shows that permafrost acts like a giant freezer, preserving the constant quality of ancient organic matter. When undecomposed Yedoma organic matter is mobilized via thermokarst processes, the fate of this carbon depends largely on the environmental conditions; the carbon could be preserved in an undecomposed state till refreezing occurs. If modern input has occurred, thermokarst organic matter could be of a better quality for future microbial decomposition than that found in Yedoma deposits.}, language = {en} } @misc{ZieglerHeidbachReineckeretal.2016, author = {Ziegler, Moritz O. and Heidbach, Oliver and Reinecker, John and Przybycin, Anna M. and Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena}, title = {A multi-stage 3-D stress field modelling approach exemplified in the Bavarian Molasse Basin}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {556}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40980}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409806}, pages = {18}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The knowledge of the contemporary in situ stress state is a key issue for safe and sustainable subsurface engineering. However, information on the orientation and magnitudes of the stress state is limited and often not available for the areas of interest. Therefore 3-D geomechanical-numerical modelling is used to estimate the in situ stress state and the distance of faults from failure for application in subsurface engineering. The main challenge in this approach is to bridge the gap in scale between the widely scattered data used for calibration of the model and the high resolution in the target area required for the application. We present a multi-stage 3-D geomechanical-numerical approach which provides a state-of-the-art model of the stress field for a reservoir-scale area from widely scattered data records. Therefore, we first use a large-scale regional model which is calibrated by available stress data and provides the full 3-D stress tensor at discrete points in the entire model volume. The modelled stress state is used subsequently for the calibration of a smaller-scale model located within the large-scale model in an area without any observed stress data records. We exemplify this approach with two-stages for the area around Munich in the German Molasse Basin. As an example of application, we estimate the scalar values for slip tendency and fracture potential from the model results as measures for the criticality of fault reactivation in the reservoir-scale model. The modelling results show that variations due to uncertainties in the input data are mainly introduced by the uncertain material properties and missing S-Hmax magnitude estimates needed for a more reliable model calibration. This leads to the conclusion that at this stage the model's reliability depends only on the amount and quality of available stress information rather than on the modelling technique itself or on local details of the model geometry. Any improvements in modelling and increases in model reliability can only be achieved using more high-quality data for calibration.}, language = {en} } @misc{FeldmannLevermann2016, author = {Feldmann, Johannes and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Similitude of ice dynamics against scaling of geometry and physical parameters}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {564}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41244}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412441}, pages = {1753 -- 1769}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The concept of similitude is commonly employed in the fields of fluid dynamics and engineering but rarely used in cryospheric research. Here we apply this method to the problem of ice flow to examine the dynamic similitude of isothermal ice sheets in shallow-shelf approximation against the scaling of their geometry and physical parameters. Carrying out a dimensional analysis of the stress balance we obtain dimensionless numbers that characterize the flow. Requiring that these numbers remain the same under scaling we obtain conditions that relate the geometric scaling factors, the parameters for the ice softness, surface mass balance and basal friction as well as the ice-sheet intrinsic response time to each other. We demonstrate that these scaling laws are the same for both the (two-dimensional) flow-line case and the three-dimensional case. The theoretically predicted ice-sheet scaling behavior agrees with results from numerical simulations that we conduct in flow-line and three-dimensional conceptual setups. We further investigate analytically the implications of geometric scaling of ice sheets for their response time. With this study we provide a framework which, under several assumptions, allows for a fundamental comparison of the ice-dynamic behavior across different scales. It proves to be useful in the design of conceptual numerical model setups and could also be helpful for designing laboratory glacier experiments. The concept might also be applied to real-world systems, e.g., to examine the response times of glaciers, ice streams or ice sheets to climatic perturbations.}, language = {en} } @misc{FeldmannLevermann2015, author = {Feldmann, Johannes and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Interaction of marine ice-sheet instabilities in two drainage basins}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Universit{\"a}t}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Universit{\"a}t}, number = {511}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40890}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408903}, pages = {15}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The initiation of a marine ice-sheet instability (MISI) is generally discussed from the ocean side of the ice sheet. It has been shown that the reduction in ice-shelf buttressing and softening of the coastal ice can destabilize a marine ice sheet if the bedrock is sloping upward towards the ocean. Using a conceptional flow-line geometry, we investigate the possibility of whether a MISI can be triggered from the direction of the ice divide as opposed to coastal forcing and explore the interaction between connected basins. We find that the initiation of a MISI in one basin can induce a destabilization in the other. The underlying mechanism of basin interaction is based on dynamic thinning and a consecutive motion of the ice divide which induces a thinning in the adjacent basin and a successive initiation of the instability. Our simplified and symmetric topographic setup allows scaling both the geometry and the transition time between both instabilities. We find that the ice profile follows a universal shape that is scaled with the horizontal extent of the ice sheet and that the same exponent of 1/2 applies for the scaling relation between central surface elevation and horizontal extent as in the pure shallow ice approximation (Vialov profile). Altering the central bed elevation, we find that the extent of grounding-line retreat in one basin determines the degree of interaction with the other. Different scenarios of basin interaction are discussed based on our modeling results as well as on a conceptual flux-balance analysis. We conclude that for the three-dimensional case, the possibility of drainage basin interaction on timescales on the order of 1 kyr or larger cannot be excluded and hence needs further investigation.}, language = {en} } @misc{FrielerMengelLevermann2016, author = {Frieler, Katja and Mengel, Matthias and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Delaying future sea-level rise by storing water in Antarctica}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {533}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41023}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410234}, pages = {8}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Even if greenhouse gas emissions were stopped today, sea level would continue to rise for centuries, with the long-term sea-level commitment of a 2 degrees C warmer world significantly exceeding 2 m. In view of the potential implications for coastal populations and ecosystems worldwide, we investigate, from an ice-dynamic perspective, the possibility of delaying sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto the surface of the Antarctic ice sheet. We find that due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than would be expected from a pure advection with surface velocities. The delay time depends strongly on the distance from the coastline at which the additional mass is placed and less strongly on the rate of sea-level rise that is mitigated. A millennium-scale storage of at least 80\% of the additional ice requires placing it at a distance of at least 700 km from the coastline. The pumping energy required to elevate the potential energy of ocean water to mitigate the currently observed 3 mmyr(-1) will exceed 7\% of the current global primary energy supply. At the same time, the approach offers a comprehensive protection for entire coastlines particularly including regions that cannot be protected by dikes.}, language = {en} } @misc{FranckeFoersterBrosinskyetal.2018, author = {Francke, Till and F{\"o}rster, Saskia and Brosinsky, Arlena and Sommerer, Erik and Lopez-Tarazon, Jose Andres and G{\"u}ntner, Andreas and Batalla Villanueva, Ramon J. and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {Water and sediment fluxes in Mediterranean mountainous regions}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {547}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41915}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419150}, pages = {13}, year = {2018}, abstract = {A comprehensive hydro-sedimentological dataset for the Is{\´a}bena catchment, northeastern (NE) Spain, for the period 2010-2018 is presented to analyse water and sediment fluxes in a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment. The dataset includes rainfall data from 12 rain gauges distributed within the study area complemented by meteorological data of 12 official meteo-stations. It comprises discharge data derived from water stage measurements as well as suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) at six gauging stations of the River Is{\´a}bena and its sub-catchments. Soil spectroscopic data from 351 suspended sediment samples and 152 soil samples were collected to characterize sediment source regions and sediment properties via fingerprinting analyses. The Is{\´a}bena catchment (445 km 2 ) is located in the southern central Pyrenees ranging from 450 m to 2720 m a.s.l.; together with a pronounced topography, this leads to distinct temperature and precipitation gradients. The River Is{\´a}bena shows marked discharge variations and high sediment yields causing severe siltation problems in the downstream Barasona Reservoir. The main sediment source is badland areas located on Eocene marls that are well connected to the river network. The dataset features a comprehensive set of variables in a high spatial and temporal resolution suitable for the advanced process understanding of water and sediment fluxes, their origin and connectivity and sediment budgeting and for the evaluation and further development of hydro-sedimentological models in Mediterranean mesoscale mountainous catchments.}, language = {en} } @misc{BiskabornLanckmanLantuitetal.2015, author = {Biskaborn, Boris and Lanckman, J.-P. and Lantuit, Hugues and Elger, K. and Streletskiy, Dmitry and Cable, W. L. and Romanovsky, Vladimir E.}, title = {The new database of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P)}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {523}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40961}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409612}, pages = {15}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) provides the first dynamic database associated with the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) and the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) programs, which extensively collect permafrost temperature and active layer thickness (ALT) data from Arctic, Antarctic and mountain permafrost regions. The purpose of GTN-P is to establish an early warning system for the consequences of climate change in permafrost regions and to provide standardized thermal permafrost data to global models. In this paper we introduce the GTN-P database and perform statistical analysis of the GTN-P metadata to identify and quantify the spatial gaps in the site distribution in relation to climate-effective environmental parameters. We describe the concept and structure of the data management system in regard to user operability, data transfer and data policy. We outline data sources and data processing including quality control strategies based on national correspondents. Assessment of the metadata and data quality reveals 63\% metadata completeness at active layer sites and 50\% metadata completeness for boreholes. Voronoi tessellation analysis on the spatial sample distribution of boreholes and active layer measurement sites quantifies the distribution inhomogeneity and provides a potential method to locate additional permafrost research sites by improving the representativeness of thermal monitoring across areas underlain by permafrost. The depth distribution of the boreholes reveals that 73\% are shallower than 25m and 27\% are deeper, reaching a maximum of 1 km depth. Comparison of the GTN-P site distribution with permafrost zones, soil organic carbon contents and vegetation types exhibits different local to regional monitoring situations, which are illustrated with maps. Preferential slope orientation at the sites most likely causes a bias in the temperature monitoring and should be taken into account when using the data for global models. The distribution of GTN-P sites within zones of projected temperature change show a high representation of areas with smaller expected temperature rise but a lower number of sites within Arctic areas where climate models project extreme temperature increase.}, language = {en} } @misc{ZibulskiWesenerWilkesetal.2017, author = {Zibulski, Romy and Wesener, Felix and Wilkes, Heinz and Plessen, Birgit and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {C / N ratio, stable isotope (δ 13 C, δ 15 N), and n-alkane patterns of brown mosses along hydrological gradients of low-centred polygons of the Siberian Arctic}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {672}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41710}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-417104}, pages = {14}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Mosses are a major component of the arctic vegetation, particularly in wetlands. We present C / N atomic ratio, delta C-13 and delta N-15 data of 400 brown-moss samples belonging to 10 species that were collected along hydrological gradients within polygonal mires located on the southern Taymyr Peninsula and the Lena River delta in northern Siberia. Additionally, n-alkane patterns of six of these species (16 samples) were investigated. The aim of the study is to see whether the inter-and intraspecific differences in C / N, isotopic compositions and n-alkanes are indicative of habitat, particularly with respect to water level. Overall, we find high variability in all investigated parameters for two different moisture-related groups of moss species. The C / N ratios range between 11 and 53 (median: 32) and show large variations at the intraspecific level. However, species preferring a dry habitat (xero-mesophilic mosses) show higher C / N ratios than those preferring a wet habitat (meso-hygrophilic mosses). The delta C-13 values range between 37.0 and 22.5\% (median D 27.8 \%). The delta N-15 values range between 6.6 and C 1.7\%(median D 2.2 \%). We find differences in delta C-13 and delta N-15 compositions between both habitat types. For some species of the meso-hygrophilic group, we suggest that a relationship between the individ-ual habitat water level and isotopic composition can be inferred as a function of microbial symbiosis. The n-alkane distribution also shows differences primarily between xeromesophilic and meso-hygrophilic mosses, i. e. having a dominance of n-alkanes with long (n-C29, n-C31 /and intermediate (n-C25 /chain lengths, respectively. Overall, our results reveal that C / N ratios, isotopic signals and n-alkanes of studied brown-moss taxa from polygonal wetlands are characteristic of their habitat.}, language = {en} } @misc{MetinDungSchroeteretal.2018, author = {Metin, Ayse Duha and Dung, Nguyen Viet and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Guse, Bj{\"o}rn and Apel, Heiko and Kreibich, Heidi and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Merz, Bruno}, title = {How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1067}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-46879}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468790}, pages = {22}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk.}, language = {en} } @misc{MurawskiBuergerVorogushynetal.2016, author = {Murawski, Aline and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Merz, Bruno}, title = {Can local climate variability be explained by weather patterns?}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {525}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41015}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410155}, pages = {24}, year = {2016}, abstract = {To understand past flood changes in the Rhine catchment and in particular the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme flows, an attribution study relying on a proper GCM (general circulation model) downscaling is needed. A downscaling based on conditioning a stochastic weather generator on weather patterns is a promising approach. This approach assumes a strong link between weather patterns and local climate, and sufficient GCM skill in reproducing weather pattern climatology. These presuppositions are unprecedentedly evaluated here using 111 years of daily climate data from 490 stations in the Rhine basin and comprehensively testing the number of classification parameters and GCM weather pattern characteristics. A classification based on a combination of mean sea level pressure, temperature, and humidity from the ERA20C reanalysis of atmospheric fields over central Europe with 40 weather types was found to be the most appropriate for stratifying six local climate variables. The corresponding skill is quite diverse though, ranging from good for radiation to poor for precipitation. Especially for the latter it was apparent that pressure fields alone cannot sufficiently stratify local variability. To test the skill of the latest generation of GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble in reproducing the frequency, seasonality, and persistence of the derived weather patterns, output from 15 GCMs is evaluated. Most GCMs are able to capture these characteristics well, but some models showed consistent deviations in all three evaluation criteria and should be excluded from further attribution analysis.}, language = {en} } @misc{SpillingSchulzPauletal.2016, author = {Spilling, Kristian and Schulz, Kai Georg and Paul, Allanah J. and Boxhammer, Tim and Achterberg, Eric Pieter and Hornick, Thomas and Lischka, Silke and Stuhr, Annegret and Berm{\´u}dez, Rafael and Czerny, Jan and Crawfurd, Kate and Brussaard, Corina P. D. and Grossart, Hans-Peter and Riebesell, Ulf}, title = {Effects of ocean acidification on pelagic carbon fluxes in a mesocosm experiment}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {544}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41183}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-411835}, pages = {13}, year = {2016}, abstract = {About a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions are currently taken up by the oceans, decreasing seawater pH. We performed a mesocosm experiment in the Baltic Sea in order to investigate the consequences of increasing CO2 levels on pelagic carbon fluxes. A gradient of different CO2 scenarios, ranging from ambient (similar to 370 mu atm) to high (similar to 1200 mu atm), were set up in mesocosm bags (similar to 55m(3)). We determined standing stocks and temporal changes of total particulate carbon (TPC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and particulate organic carbon (POC) of specific plankton groups. We also measured carbon flux via CO2 exchange with the atmosphere and sedimentation (export), and biological rate measurements of primary production, bacterial production, and total respiration. The experiment lasted for 44 days and was divided into three different phases (I: t0-t16; II: t17-t30; III: t31-t43). Pools of TPC, DOC, and DIC were approximately 420, 7200, and 25 200 mmol Cm-2 at the start of the experiment, and the initial CO2 additions increased the DIC pool by similar to 7\% in the highest CO2 treatment. Overall, there was a decrease in TPC and increase of DOC over the course of the experiment. The decrease in TPC was lower, and increase in DOC higher, in treatments with added CO2. During phase I the estimated gross primary production (GPP) was similar to 100 mmol C m(-2) day(-1), from which 75-95\% was respired, similar to 1\% ended up in the TPC (including export), and 5-25\% was added to the DOC pool. During phase II, the respiration loss increased to similar to 100\% of GPP at the ambient CO2 concentration, whereas respiration was lower (85-95\% of GPP) in the highest CO2 treatment. Bacterial production was similar to 30\% lower, on average, at the highest CO2 concentration than in the controls during phases II and III. This resulted in a higher accumulation of DOC and lower reduction in the TPC pool in the elevated CO2 treatments at the end of phase II extending throughout phase III. The "extra" organic carbon at high CO2 remained fixed in an increasing biomass of small-sized plankton and in the DOC pool, and did not transfer into large, sinking aggregates. Our results revealed a clear effect of increasing CO2 on the carbon budget and mineralization, in particular under nutrient limited conditions. Lower carbon loss processes (respiration and bacterial remineralization) at elevated CO2 levels resulted in higher TPC and DOC pools than ambient CO2 concentration. These results highlight the importance of addressing not only net changes in carbon standing stocks but also carbon fluxes and budgets to better disentangle the effects of ocean acidification.}, language = {en} } @misc{NauschBachCzernyetal.2016, author = {Nausch, Monika and Bach, Lennart Thomas and Czerny, Jan and Goldstein, Josephine and Grossart, Hans-Peter and Hellemann, Dana and Hornick, Thomas and Achterberg, Eric Pieter and Schulz, Kai Georg and Riebesell, Ulf}, title = {Effects of CO 2 perturbation on phosphorus pool sizes and uptake in a mesocosm experiment during a low productive summer season in the northern Baltic Sea}, series = {Biogeosciences}, journal = {Biogeosciences}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410274}, pages = {16}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Studies investigating the effect of increasing CO2 levels on the phosphorus cycle in natural waters are lacking although phosphorus often controls phytoplankton development in many aquatic systems. The aim of our study was to analyse effects of elevated CO2 levels on phosphorus pool sizes and uptake. The phosphorus dynamic was followed in a CO2-manipulation mesocosm experiment in the Storfjarden (western Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea) in summer 2012 and was also studied in the surrounding fjord water. In all mesocosms as well as in surface waters of Storfjarden, dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) concentrations of 0.26aEuro-+/- aEuro-0.03 and 0.23aEuro-+/- aEuro-0.04aEuro-A mu molaEuro-L-1, respectively, formed the main fraction of the total P-pool (TP), whereas phosphate (PO4) constituted the lowest fraction with mean concentration of 0.15aEuro-A +/- aEuro-0.02 in the mesocosms and 0.17aEuro-A +/- aEuro-0.07aEuro-A mu molaEuro-L-1 in the fjord. Transformation of PO4 into DOP appeared to be the main pathway of PO4 turnover. About 82aEuro-\% of PO4 was converted into DOP whereby only 18aEuro-\% of PO4 was transformed into particulate phosphorus (PP). PO4 uptake rates measured in the mesocosms ranged between 0.6 and 3.9aEuro-nmolaEuro-L(-1)aEuro-h(-1). About 86aEuro-\% of them was realized by the size fraction < aEuro-3aEuro-A mu m. Adenosine triphosphate (ATP) uptake revealed that additional P was supplied from organic compounds accounting for 25-27aEuro-\% of P provided by PO4 only. CO2 additions did not cause significant changes in phosphorus (P) pool sizes, DOP composition, and uptake of PO4 and ATP when the whole study period was taken into account. However, significant short-term effects were observed for PO4 and PP pool sizes in CO2 treatments > aEuro-1000aEuro-A mu atm during periods when phytoplankton biomass increased. In addition, we found significant relationships (e.g., between PP and Chl a) in the untreated mesocosms which were not observed under high fCO(2) conditions. Consequently, it can be hypothesized that the relationship between PP formation and phytoplankton growth changed with CO2 elevation. It can be deduced from the results, that visible effects of CO2 on P pools are coupled to phytoplankton growth when the transformation of PO4 into POP was stimulated. The transformation of PO4 into DOP on the other hand does not seem to be affected. Additionally, there were some indications that cellular mechanisms of P regulation might be modified under CO2 elevation changing the relationship between cellular constituents.}, language = {en} } @misc{MarcHovius2015, author = {Marc, Odin and Hovius, Niels}, title = {Amalgamation in landslide maps}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {485}, issn = {1866-8372}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408075}, pages = {11}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Inventories of individually delineated landslides are a key to understanding landslide physics and mitigating their impact. They permit assessment of area-frequency distributions and landslide volumes, and testing of statistical correlations between landslides and physical parameters such as topographic gradient or seismic strong motion. Amalgamation, i.e. the mapping of several adjacent landslides as a single polygon, can lead to potentially severe distortion of the statistics of these inventories. This problem can be especially severe in data sets produced by automated mapping. We present five inventories of earthquake-induced landslides mapped with different materials and techniques and affected by varying degrees of amalgamation. Errors on the total landslide volume and power-law exponent of the area-frequency distribution, resulting from amalgamation, may be up to 200 and 50\%, respectively. We present an algorithm based on image and digital elevation model (DEM) analysis, for automatic identification of amalgamated polygons. On a set of about 2000 polygons larger than 1000 m2, tracing landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge earthquake, the algorithm performs well, with only 2.7-3.6\% incorrectly amalgamated landslides missed and 3.9-4.8\% correct polygons incorrectly identified as amalgams. This algorithm can be used broadly to check landslide inventories and allow faster correction by automating the identification of amalgamation.}, language = {en} } @misc{BaroniZinkKumaretal.2017, author = {Baroni, Gabriele and Zink, Matthias and Kumar, Rohini and Samaniego, Luis and Attinger, Sabine}, title = {Effects of uncertainty in soil properties on simulated hydrological states and fluxes at different spatio-temporal scales}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {545}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41917}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419174}, pages = {20}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Soil properties show high heterogeneity at different spatial scales and their correct characterization remains a crucial challenge over large areas. The aim of the study is to quantify the impact of different types of uncertainties that arise from the unresolved soil spatial variability on simulated hydrological states and fluxes. Three perturbation methods are presented for the characterization of uncertainties in soil properties. The methods are applied on the soil map of the upper Neckar catchment (Germany), as an example. The uncertainties are propagated through the distributed mesoscale hydrological model (mHM) to assess the impact on the simulated states and fluxes. The model outputs are analysed by aggregating the results at different spatial and temporal scales. These results show that the impact of the different uncertainties introduced in the original soil map is equivalent when the simulated model outputs are analysed at the model grid resolution (i.e. 500 m). However, several differences are identified by aggregating states and fluxes at different spatial scales (by subcatchments of different sizes or coarsening the grid resolution). Streamflow is only sensitive to the perturbation of long spatial structures while distributed states and fluxes (e.g. soil moisture and groundwater recharge) are only sensitive to the local noise introduced to the original soil properties. A clear identification of the temporal and spatial scale for which finer-resolution soil information is (or is not) relevant is unlikely to be universal. However, the comparison of the impacts on the different hydrological components can be used to prioritize the model improvements in specific applications, either by collecting new measurements or by calibration and data assimilation approaches. In conclusion, the study underlines the importance of a correct characterization of uncertainty in soil properties. With that, soil maps with additional information regarding the unresolved soil spatial variability would provide strong support to hydrological modelling applications.}, language = {en} } @misc{EmbersonHoviusGalyetal.2016, author = {Emberson, Robert and Hovius, Niels and Galy, Albert and Marc, Odin}, title = {Oxidation of sulfides and rapid weathering in recent landslides}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {553}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41232}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412326}, pages = {16}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Linking together the processes of rapid physical erosion and the resultant chemical dissolution of rock is a crucial step in building an overall deterministic understanding of weathering in mountain belts. Landslides, which are the most volumetrically important geomorphic process at these high rates of erosion, can generate extremely high rates of very localised weathering. To elucidate how this process works we have taken advantage of uniquely intense landsliding, resulting from Typhoon Morakot, in the T'aimali River and surrounds in southern Taiwan. Combining detailed analysis of landslide seepage chemistry with estimates of catchment-by-catchment landslide volumes, we demonstrate that in this setting the primary role of landslides is to introduce fresh, highly labile mineral phases into the surface weathering environment. There, rapid weathering is driven by the oxidation of pyrite and the resultant sulfuric-acid-driven dissolution of primarily carbonate rock. The total dissolved load correlates well with dissolved sulfate - the chief product of this style of weathering - in both landslides and streams draining the area (R-2 = 0.841 and 0.929 respectively; p < 0.001 in both cases), with solute chemistry in seepage from landslides and catchments affected by significant landsliding governed by the same weathering reactions. The predominance of coupled carbonate-sulfuric-acid-driven weathering is the key difference between these sites and previously studied landslides in New Zealand (Emberson et al., 2016), but in both settings increasing volumes of landslides drive greater overall solute concentrations in streams. Bedrock landslides, by excavating deep below saprolite-rock interfaces, create conditions for weathering in which all mineral phases in a lithology are initially unweathered within landslide deposits. As a result, the most labile phases dominate the weathering immediately after mobilisation and during a transient period of depletion. This mode of dissolution can strongly alter the overall output of solutes from catchments and their contribution to global chemical cycles if landslide-derived material is retained in catchments for extended periods after mass wasting.}, language = {en} } @misc{AgarwalMarwanMaheswaranetal.2017, author = {Agarwal, Ankit and Marwan, Norbert and Maheswaran, Rathinasamy and Merz, Bruno and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Multi-scale event synchronization analysis for unravelling climate processes}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {661}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41827}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418274}, pages = {13}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The temporal dynamics of climate processes are spread across different timescales and, as such, the study of these processes at only one selected timescale might not reveal the complete mechanisms and interactions within and between the (sub-) processes. To capture the non-linear interactions between climatic events, the method of event synchronization has found increasing attention recently. The main drawback with the present estimation of event synchronization is its restriction to analysing the time series at one reference timescale only. The study of event synchronization at multiple scales would be of great interest to comprehend the dynamics of the investigated climate processes. In this paper, the wavelet-based multi-scale event synchronization (MSES) method is proposed by combining the wavelet transform and event synchronization. Wavelets are used extensively to comprehend multi-scale processes and the dynamics of processes across various timescales. The proposed method allows the study of spatio-temporal patterns across different timescales. The method is tested on synthetic and real-world time series in order to check its replicability and applicability. The results indicate that MSES is able to capture relationships that exist between processes at different timescales.}, language = {en} }